The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[MCKillswitch123]

12 hours ago, leoh said:

67M???? Don’t set yourself up for deception…

 

Moster-Verse is a declining franchise, Monster-Verse movies are declining every new instalment they release.

 

2014 200M
2016 160M
2019 110M

2021 100M

 

However, WB will release it during Easter break long weekend (Friday to Monday), when ~68% of schools will be closed this year. This may help it to surpass the previous 48M OW.

 

So currently I’d say 50-55M is more realistic.

Monster-verse movies aren’t a big deal in the US. International market is the reason why Legendary carries on producing these movies. And it seems it’ll do pretty well in China.

 

 

 

 

Lmfao, are you seriously using day-and-date, pandemic-stricken Godzilla vs. Kong, the first movie post-COVID to make $100m domestic, as an example of the franchise being in diminishing returns?

 

I'm willing to bet physical money that the New Empire film beats it DOM.

Edited March 24 by MCKillswitch123

[leoh]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Lmfao, are you seriously using day-and-date, pandemic-stricken Godzilla vs. Kong, the first movie post-COVID to make $100m domestic, as an example of the franchise being in diminishing returns?

 

I'm willing to bet physical money that the New Empire film beats it DOM.

Monster-verse domestic  records:

 

2014 200M
2016 160M
2019 110M

2021 100M

 

There was a pandemic only in one of those 4 monster-verse releases, right?
 

Plus, I agree that 2024 monster-verse movie will surpass 2021 GodzillaXKong box office (given that it’s being released during the Easter break). However, it’s not realistic to expect anything close to 70M OW.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 24 by leoh

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, leoh said:

in case you didn’t notice, I’ll write again monster-verse domestic  records:

 

2014 200M
2016 160M
2019 110M

2021 100M

 

I guess there was a pandemic only in one of those 4 monster-verse releases, right?
 

Plus, I agree that 2024 monster-verse movie will surpass 2021 GodzillaXKong box office (given that it’s being released during the Easter break). However, it’s not realistic to expect anything close to 70M OW.

 

 

 

 

Notice how nobody has said this would have a 70 million dollar opening weekend like at all. Almost everybody is going with 60-65 or so.  We get it Ghostbusters is your franchise not the monster verse. It's okay to have favorites. 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Notice how nobody has said this would have a 70 million dollar opening weekend like at all. Almost everybody is going with 60-65 or so.  We get it Ghostbusters is your franchise not the monster verse. It's okay to have favorites. 

I was literally responding someone who’s considering 67M opening weekend…

This has nothing to do with my preferences. I’m being  pragmatic, considering movies cultural impact/background (I personally think this is highly relevant) + pre sales tracking. And current data doesn’t suggest 65M+ ow for GxK:NE.   It’s not because I don’t like it. Some people were thinking I was a Dune hater some time ago because I repeatedly said 80M was best case scenario for Dune 2, when many were still believing in anything close to 90M. And still I love Dune.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 24 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, Relevation said:

@keysersoze123 is Civil War doing anything notable in MTC1 yet? Was thinking it could approach a $25-30M OW before presales started, interested if sales are reflecting that 

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 2430/9257 57299.70 29 shows

Previews - 6851/332600 139096.05 1649 shows

Friday - 4682/548178 89748.26 2652 shows

 

Its definitely not bad. I definitely can buy @Shawn Robbins call here. its start is stronger than Monkey Man or Fall Guy. Hope the trend continues and have a successful movie.  

Edited March 25 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

Guys simple request. Dont feed the troll. Its of no use. Just put him in ignore and move on. Definitely not in this thread. 

[ThomasNicole]

Omg not the Dune thread, i feel every discussion with this member ends up in circles. 
 

To be fair i know no one discusses anything alone so it’s not totally their fault, but my God nearly all the posts incite the same discussions over and over and it doesn’t even feel organic atp.
 

It’s a data thread, so i’m really sorry to add on this useless conversation but i just feel it has to be said.

[leoh]

22 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Omg not the Dune thread, i feel every discussion with this member ends up in circles. 
 

To be fair i know no one discusses anything alone so it’s not totally their fault, but my God nearly all the posts incite the same discussions over and over and it doesn’t even feel organic atp.
 

It’s a data thread, so i’m really sorry to add on this useless conversation but i just feel it has to be said.

My response was to a discussion about GxK:NE pre sales tracking information, I was saying that current data doesn’t suggest anything like 65M+ OW.  

Edited March 24 by leoh

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/21/2024 at 9:24 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	35	13	113	4075	2.77

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		71	7	62.83
MTC1:		92	13	81.42
Marcus:		2	0	1.77
Alamo:		19	0	16.81
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:

1.36x Argylle: $2.31 Million

0.34x KoFM: $870k

0.88x The Creator (w/ EA): $1.4 Million

 

Average: $1.53 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Monkey Man (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	35	19	132	4075	3.24

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		83	12	62.88
MTC1:		109	17	82.58
Marcus:		2	0	1.52
Alamo:		21	2	15.91
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:

1.33x Argylle: $2.27 Million

0.34x KoFM: $895k

0.79x The Creator (w/ EA): $1.26 Million

 

Average: $1.47 Million

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Civil War (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-15	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	57	72	72	10591	0.68
Monday April 8 EA: 1 theater	1	51	51	212	24.06
TOTALS:	58	123	123	10803	1.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		71	71	98.61
MTC1:		46	46	63.89
Marcus:		2	2	2.78
Alamo:		22	22	30.56
Other chains:		2	2	2.78

(Chart for Thursday only)

 

Comps (including EA at this point):

1.23x Monkey Man: ??

1.64x The Creator: $2.62 Million

0.41x KoFM: $1.07 Million

 

Not a bad start but heavy on the EA (only 1 screen despite there being more IMAX screens in town, must be pretty limited). I will have better comps as the days go by

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/21/2024 at 8:55 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	93	248	728	16287	4.47

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		587	191	80.63
MTC1:		429	130	58.93
Marcus:		113	49	15.52
Alamo:		50	12	6.87
Other chains:		136	57	18.68

 

Comps:

1.64x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: ????

2.12x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $9.55 Million

1.01x Hunger Games BoSS: $5.81 Million

0.58x FNAF: $6.02 Million

0.81x MI7 (TUE): $5.67 Million

0.79x Indy 5: $5.65 Million

 

Funnily enough, looking at @Porthos and @katnisscinnaplex last posts, the Frozen Empire comp is at 1.66x and 1.63x in Sacto and Jax/Phx/Ral respectively. Thought that was a funny coincidence!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	102	274	1002	17913	5.59

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		784	197	78.24
MTC1:		551	122	54.99
Marcus:		200	87	19.96
Alamo:		63	13	6.29
Other chains:		188	52	18.76

 

Comps:

1.7x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $7.97 Million

0.95x Hunger Games BoSS: $5.47 Million

0.61x FNAF: $6.26 Million

0.74x MI7 (TUE): $5.18 Million

0.84x Indy 5: $6.01 Million

 

Average: $6.18 Million

 

Worth mentioning that FNAF with its low PLF numbers and MI7 with its Tuesday discount are bringing the average down, so the average would be closer to 6.5-7 at the moment.

 

Sadly this will be my last update for this movie, going on a (deserved, if I may say) lil spring break trip this week. Sad to miss this particular one, would have been a fun final week to track. Next updates for all the other flicks (Civil War, Monkey Man, Fall Guy, and soon to be First Omen) next Sunday, a week from now.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
386	1908	77509	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

(0.864x) of Ghostbusters $4.06M  

(0.414x) of Dune 2 $3.85M  

Comps average: $3.96M 

 

This is a very good start 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/21/2024 at 9:01 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
583	3820	117356	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

105

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

(0.581x) of Dune 2 $5.41M  

 

Comps average: $5.41M 

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
583	4768	117356	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

363

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.617x) of Dune 2 $5.74M  

(1.119x) of Ghostbusters $5.26M  

Comps average: $5.5M 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
386	1908	77509	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

(0.864x) of Ghostbusters $4.06M  

(0.414x) of Dune 2 $3.85M  

Comps average: $3.96M 

 

This is a very good start 

 

Wow this is surprising good news!!!

 

it’s worth to mention that civil war is going to take over IMAX screens on March 12.

 

Some people believe it can be the first A24 movie to cross 100M at the domestic box office. That would great cuz it’s the biggest investment ever for A24 (50M budget). 

Edited March 24 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Civil War MTC1

Early Shows(4/8) - 2430/9257 57299.70 29 shows

 

Previews - 6851/332600 139096.05 1649 shows

Friday - 4682/548178 89748.26 2652 shows

 

Its definitely not bad. I definitely can buy @Shawn Robbins call here. its start is stronger than Monkey Man or Fall Guy. Hope the trend continues and have a successful movie.  

Added early shows BO as well. FYI its very limited release on 8th. Probably looking at 200kish early BO. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
386	1908	77509	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

(0.864x) of Ghostbusters $4.06M  

(0.414x) of Dune 2 $3.85M  

Comps average: $3.96M 

 

This is a very good start 

Are you including early shows?

 

there is something off here, there is absolutely no way it has sold that many seats. (Unless people are somehow really committed to Florida alliance… lol)

 

Probably you are counting blocked seats in some cinemas. That would also explain how GB comps for Dune were so high and same here for Civil War.

 

Dune comp being $3M is almost impossible.

Edited March 25 by charlie Jatinder

[leoh]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Are you including early shows?

 

there is something off here, there is absolutely no way it has sold that many seats. (Unless people are somehow really committed to Florida alliance… lol)

 

Probably you are counting blocked seats in some cinemas. That would also explain how GB comps for Dune were so high and same here for Civil War.

 

Dune comp being $3M is almost impossible.

in fact @TheFlatLannister was pretty accurate about Ghostbusters. His T-1 Dune comp for Thursday was at 5.2M. Considering Dune ATP was considerably higher, 5.2M - 10% (ATP) = ~4.7M (accurate)

 

I agree that his Civil War projection looks higher than expected. But I’d not say it’s wrong, or impossible, Civil War is taking over IMAX screens on April 12, this will give it a really good boost at the box office. Plus Civil War is already being marketed as the next IMAX big experience, this could be boosting its pre sales. 
 

Edited March 25 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 43607/567712 839031.33 2981 shows +3433

Friday - 43862/842039 806261.62 4422 shows +5263

 

More I think, Friday will be 2.5x the previews. 7m previews could still take OD to 25m and OW in high 50s. Slightly higher numbers will take it to 60s OW. 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 48429/567757 926667.77 2982 shows +4822

Friday - 50975/843140 930224.17 4430 shows +7113

 

It should hopefully have a good final 4 days. its just the kind of movie that should finish strong. 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Civil War

 

Thursday 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
386	1908	77509	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-18

(0.864x) of Ghostbusters $4.06M  

(0.414x) of Dune 2 $3.85M  

Comps average: $3.96M 

 

This is a very good start 

WTF. Seems crazy strong for sure. Let us see how this goes. 

 

 

  

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Are you including early shows?

 

there is something off here, there is absolutely no way it has sold that many seats. (Unless people are somehow really committed to Florida alliance… lol)

 

Probably you are counting blocked seats in some cinemas. That would also explain how GB comps for Dune were so high and same here for Civil War.

 

Dune comp being $3M is almost impossible.

 

I dont think EA shows matter. its not that large a scale release to make a huge difference. Its either than CW is overperforming in Florida or we have too many blocked seats. I think daily pace will tell the tale. 

Edited March 25 by keysersoze123

[misterpepp]

Angel Studios' next movie Sight goes on sale March 27.