The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why would you expect deadline to be any kind of expert on OS BO. I am not sure studio low balled and gave this number setting low expectations. 

 

Based on Maoyan the OW in China will be close to 50m OW. Asia will do great as well as should Latin America. @charlie Jatinder is good at predicting OS OW. ask in OS thread for the movie. 

120+ possible os

 

edit: not releasing in Germany and France, may be some other EU countries. So 110 ish.

Edited March 27 by charlie Jatinder

[CJohn]

Lets not forget Thursday night will be heavily inflated because of the holiday on Friday.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, SaltyPistola said:

2019 hit us pretty bad.. but now the MCU is down the drain and the G Man has an Oscar and potentially the biggest opening of the year.

 

If you come for the king, you best not miss. 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't want to derail the thread, but Inside out 2 or Deadpool is pretty much guaranteed to be the biggest opener of the year. Don't think it's going to be particularly close either 

[SaltyPistola]

30 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Don't want to derail the thread, but Inside out 2 or Deadpool is pretty much guaranteed to be the biggest opener of the year. Don't think it's going to be particularly close either 

Whoops I meant so far! Agreed on this not coming close to these guys(I'd add DM4 and Lion King to that potential list) 

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Don't want to derail the thread, but Inside out 2 or Deadpool is pretty much guaranteed to be the biggest opener of the year. Don't think it's going to be particularly close either 

I doubt Inside Out 2 comes anywhere close to Deadpool.

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Don't want to derail the thread, but Inside out 2 or Deadpool is pretty much guaranteed to be the biggest opener of the year. Don't think it's going to be particularly close either 

I also don't wanna derail the thread, but . . . this ain't May 2022 anymore

 

Virgin: May 2019 was peak MCU hype

Chad: May 2022 was peak MCU hype

Edited March 27 by HummingLemon496

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Don't want to derail the thread, but Inside out 2 or Deadpool is pretty much guaranteed to be the biggest opener of the year. Don't think it's going to be particularly close either 

GxK could hit 75 and that's still probably only half of IO2's opening, clearing Deadpool is just a lol

[keysersoze123]

On 3/25/2024 at 9:34 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 58668/597617 1110918.90 3196 shows +10239 

Friday - 64635/941190 1167794.51 5097 shows +13660

 

Terrific day but I expected this looking at Monday PS for past few weeks. It always seem to be huge coming out of a weekend. Let us see if the momentum continues tomorrow or is it just the Monday thing. I am thinking 8m previews is in play after this and true friday in high teens or even 20m is in play with very good walkups considering its a semi holiday and will play well with family crowd.

 

something like 8/20/21/15 - 64m OW is my prediction a this point. 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 69155/640680 1297769.61 3491 shows +10487

Friday - 80734/1083696 1441303.64 6044 shows +16099

 

Flattish day for previews. Not surprised after how things went yesterday and lack of any catalyst. Friday did go up a bit and I feel good about 20m+ True Friday or even more once we get to gauge walkups on thursday. I am still feeling good about my prediction yesterday.  

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-3, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 402

New Sales: 94

Growth: 31%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 24

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 16.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 100/6

Early Evening: 150/9

Late Evening: 119/9

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 25/4

Dolby 3D: 121/6
VIP: 77/5

4DX: 34/3

Regular 3D: 0/3

IMAX: 109/3

 

Comps

1.245x HG: BoSS for $7.2M

1.179x Madame Web for $7.1M

2.310x Aquaman 2 for $10.4M

Average: $8.2M

 

Very strong day. I think people were waiting to come out of the weekend before making plans.

 

Up against all comps. 

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-2, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 497

New Sales: 95

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 24

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 20.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 117/6

Early Evening: 214/9

Late Evening: 166/9

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 46/4

Dolby 3D: 174/6
VIP: 106/5

4DX: 48/3

Regular 3D: 3/3

IMAX: 120/3

 

Comps

1.362x HG: BoSS for $7.8M

1.124x Madame Web for $6.8M

2.133x Aquaman 2 for $9.6M

Average: $8.1M

 

Another strong day. It actually has slightly kower growth than yes, but as others have said, this isn't getting any real review bump at this stage.

 

It stayed flat with comps, and I imagine the late growth bodes well for walk ups. 

[vafrow]

On 3/26/2024 at 6:33 AM, vafrow said:

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-10, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 21

New Sales : 3

Growth: 17%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 2

Showtimes: 4

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.3

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 14/2

Late Evening: 7/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 19/2
Regular: 2/2

 

Continues at a steady pace. New showtimes go up later today. 

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-9, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 29

New Sales : 8

Growth: 38%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 22/2

Late Evening: 7/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 27/2
Regular: 2/2

 

Comps

0.162x HG: BoSS for $0.9M

0.420x Aquaman 2 for $1.9M

0.053x Dune 2 for $0.5M

Average: $1.1M

 

 

With the full showtimes up, it's now playing in all 5 theatres in my sample, up from just the two. All the new sales were from the existing showtimes though, but I'm guessing that the new ones just need a couple of days before they pick up.

 

I'll need to figure out what comps I can use now that I have a full set of screens, but options are limited. I might throw Aquaman in there, just as something action driven and male skewing, but that's about it.

 

Edit: added comps. Since over half the showings just got added, I expect that comps will rise (as well as comparing franchises to an original film).

Edited March 27 by vafrow

[Porthos]

On 3/26/2024 at 1:25 AM, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	172	22066	23919	1853	7.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today	36
Total Seats Added Today	2648
Total Seats Sold Today	273

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	85.31		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	41.23%		7.33m
Wick 4	70.00		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	34.01%		6.23m
Fast X	90.13		262	2056		0/228	30813/32869	6.26%		4122	44.95%		6.76m
AtSV	41.56		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	19.02%		7.21m
RotB	93.68		282	1978		0/162	21019/22997	8.60%		9744	19.02%		8.24m
FNAF	50.14		398	3696		0/220	22434/26130	14.14%		6466	28.66%		5.16m
BOSS	141.67		185	1308		0/115	13982/15290	8.55%		2701	68.60%		8.15m
GBFE	189.08		134	980		0/193	26679/27659	3.54%		2197	84.34%		8.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      426/8226  [5.18% sold]
Matinee:     69/2252  [3.06% | 3.72% of all tickets sold]
3D:            243/5195  [4.68% | 13.11% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        1062/9733  [10.91% | 57.31% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Now late reviews are always something of a wild card, but thinking 7m+ is very very likely, and like @keysersoze123 thinks, touching 8m is a possibility.  Not sure how strong of a possibility, but I think it's def possible, again while noting the wildcard of incoming reviews/reactions.

 

For me, holding steady against Rise of the Beasts is a pretty good omen, as is gaining on Across the Spider-Verse.  Also rose slightly against Black Adam.

 

Still not bringing in Jurassic World Dominion as the extra month of pre-sales is still putting waaaaaay too much of a thumb on the scale.

 

All in all doing what it needs to.  But, as said, late-ish reviews are a wild card as always, so we'll see what Tue/Wed brings.

 

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	188	22462	24760	2298	9.28%

 

Total Showings Added Today	16
Total Seats Added Today	841
Total Seats Sold Today	445

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	89.45		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	51.13%		7.69m
Wick 4	71.83		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	42.18%		6.39m
Fast X	96.43		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	55.75%		7.23m
AtSV	42.53		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	23.58%		7.38m
RotB	91.85		524	2502		0/183	22360/24862	10.06%		4973	46.21%		8.08m
FNAF	54.45		524	4220		0/235	23745/27965	15.09%		6466	35.54%		5.61m
BOSS	146.09		265	1573		0/136	15613/17186	9.15%		2701	85.08%		8.40m
GBFE	191.02		223	1203		0/201	27252/28455	4.23%		2197	104.60%		8.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       557/8482  [6.57% sold]
Matinee:    113/2416  [4.68% | 4.92% of all tickets sold]
3D:            313/5209  [6.01% | 13.62% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        1272/9733  [13.07% | 55.35% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Still showing growth on the sub 8m comps, but the trio of 8m+ comps I do have were a bit more mixed.  RotB fell a tiny amount, while BOSS and GBFE rose a tad.  But the later two under-performed locally, so who knows.  Most hopeful comp, I think, is Black Adam which rose a decent amount.

 

All in all, might be converging on 8m, but the error bars are still in play, I think.  Shame about reviews being day-of, but whatcha gonna do.

 

Not much else to add which hasn't already been said, so I'll leave it there for now.

Edited March 28 by Porthos

[M37]

40 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Still showing growth on the sub 8m comps, but the trio of 8m+ comps I do have were a bit more mixed.  RotB fell a tiny amount

I know your Transformers track was a Q&D, but that comp includes the EA shows, correct?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/26/2024 at 9:13 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-2	Jax	5	60	77	546	10,461	5.22%
		Phx	6	47	153	610	7,543	8.09%
		Ral	8	61	120	472	8,070	5.85%
	Total		19	168	350	1,628	26,074	6.24%
Land of Saints	T-2	Jax	4	12	0	3	1,567	0.19%
		Phx	3	7	1	2	531	0.38%
		Ral	2	5	1	1	274	0.36%
	Total		9	24	2	6	2,372	0.25%
Winnie: Blood 2	T-0	Jax	5	5	19	19	463	4.10%
		Phx	6	6	22	22	904	2.43%
		Ral	6	6	15	15	429	3.50%
	Total		17	17	56	56	1,796	3.12%

 

Godzilla x Kong T-2 adjusted comps

 - TMNT (Total) - 1.04x (7m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .792x (8.36m)
 - Venom 2 - .803x (9.87m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.23x (9.89m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .322x (5.83m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.12x (8.61m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - 1.45x (8.28m)

 - Ghostbusters Frozen - 1.842x (8.27m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .825x (8.71m) 

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.19m

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Godzilla x Kong	64.94%	26.85%	22.71%	27.39%
Turtles Total	51.95%	31.71%	20.80%	4.41%
M:I 7 Total	54.24%	25.43%	14.08%	14.16%
Venom 2	-	-	19.16%	27.07%
Suicide Squad	54.33%	27.70%	14.04%	18.31%
JW3	-	-	-	19.23%
Sonic 2 (Total)	62.05%	24.55%	22.04%	22.02%
Ghostbusters Total	-	-	20.07%	20.82%
Ghostbusters: FE	57.30%	23.84%	14.95%	19.95%
Transformers Total	-	-	-	16.88%

 

When I switch to exclusive preview comps the size adjusted total comes up to 7.7m.  Just looking at how this is pacing, I'm expecting this to be closer to 9m than 8m in the end.  It even beat Venom 2 in growth yesterday.  Mark to beat today is +30%

 

Blood & Honey is only having one show per theater tonight.  Some scattered sales throughout which is a good sign.  It looks like they aren't getting the discount Tuesday prices since it's a fathom release so I'll go with 200k.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-1	Jax	5	66	110	656	10,917	6.01%
		Phx	7	60	114	724	9,261	7.82%
		Ral	8	65	121	593	8,416	7.05%
	Total		20	191	345	1,973	28,594	6.90%
Land of Saints	T-1	Jax	4	12	6	9	1,567	0.57%
		Phx	3	7	1	3	531	0.56%
		Ral	2	5	0	1	274	0.36%
	Total		9	24	7	13	2,372	0.55%

 

Godzilla x Kong T-1 adjusted comps

 - TMNT - 2.68x (11.16m)

 - M:I 7 - 1.3x (8.47m)
 - Venom 2 - .746x (9.18m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.06x (9.13m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .327x (5.92m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.41x (8.62m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 1.41x (6.32m)

 - Ghostbusters Frozen - 1.76x (7.9m)

 - Transformers - 1.241x (9.06m) 

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.47m

 

I updated my comps to previews only (excluding EA).  

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Godzilla x Kong	80.18%	29.04%	22.39%	21.19%
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
M:I 7	58.27%	31.32%	20.00%	20.81%
Venom 2	101.37%	34.65%	21.56%	30.37%
Suicide Squad	86.74%	22.81%	23.74%	31.23%
JW3	-	-	16.55%	19.39%
Sonic 2	80.88%	28.94%	23.45%	30.60%
Ghostbusters	74.47%	28.14%	18.02%	28.41%
Ghostbusters: FE	66.82%	29.02%	21.38%	26.81%
Transformers 6	70.78%	25.67%	-	28.02%

 

Pace still looking great against comps.  Yesterday not as good as I hoped, but 3-day still ahead of schedule.  Normal circumstances without any ATP adjustments would be looking in the 7m range but I'm holding onto hope of 8m+

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/26/2024 at 9:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Monkey Man	T-9	Jax	6	18	1	13	3,006	0.43%
		Phx	6	14	3	34	1,683	2.02%
		Ral	7	14	6	26	1,840	1.41%
	Total		19	46	10	73	6,529	1.12%
Someone Like You	T-7	Jax	5	12	2	51	1,280	3.98%
		Phx	6	12	0	2	1,316	0.15%
		Ral	6	20	1	19	1,722	1.10%
	Total		17	44	3	72	4,318	1.67%

 

Monkey Man T-9 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - 1.014x (1.14m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .497x (993k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .474x (1.48m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.11x (1.22m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .412x (1.27m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .239x (1.13m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.22m

 

Someone Like You T-7 adjusted comps

- I Wanna Dance - .514x (384k)

 - Respect (Total) - .319x (220k)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - .133x (245k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .291x (370k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 412k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-8	Jax	5	10	6	6	1,366	0.44%
		Phx	6	12	11	11	1,681	0.65%
		Ral	5	11	1	1	1,236	0.08%
	Total		16	33	18	18	4,283	0.42%
Monkey Man	T-8	Jax	6	18	0	13	3,006	0.43%
		Phx	6	14	7	41	1,683	2.44%
		Ral	7	14	1	27	1,840	1.47%
	Total		19	46	8	81	6,529	1.24%
Someone Like You	T-6	Jax	5	10	-3	48	892	5.38%
		Phx	6	12	0	2	1,316	0.15%
		Ral	6	15	0	19	1,213	1.57%
	Total		17	37	-3	69	3,421	2.02%

 

Monkey Man T-8 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - .976x (1.1m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .54x (1.08m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .415x (1.29m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.23x (1.35m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .426x (1.31m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .256x (1.21m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.22m

 

Someone Like You T-6 adjusted comps

- I Wanna Dance - .437x (326k)

 - Respect (Total) - .276x (190k)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - .113x (208k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .221x (281k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 346k

 

First Omen T-8 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .486x (606k)

 - Last Voyage - .5x (375k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1.5x (1.53m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/26/2024 at 9:18 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-16	Jax	5	34	2	15	6,188	0.24%
		Phx	6	19	2	22	4,009	0.55%
		Ral	6	20	1	23	2,899	0.79%
	Total		17	73	5	60	13,096	0.46%

 

T-16 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .15x (1.18m)

 - Elvis - .382x (1.48m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-15	Jax	5	34	2	17	6,188	0.27%
		Phx	6	19	0	22	4,009	0.55%
		Ral	6	20	3	26	2,899	0.90%
	Total		17	73	5	65	13,096	0.50%

 

T-15 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .15x (1.17m)

 - Elvis - .361x (1.395m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.102x (4.19m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

[Shawn Robbins]

Going with $62m for GxK. Was definitely too cautious with it a few weeks back. The $50m high end then looks like the low, low end now.

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Going with $62m for GxK. Was definitely too cautious with it a few weeks back. The $50m high end then looks like the low, low end now.

 

We all know you, too, would like to see the number begin with a 7 more, Shawn.

 

[ChiefBrody]

14 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Going with $62m for GxK. Was definitely too cautious with it a few weeks back. The $50m high end then looks like the low, low end now.

Well sir I owe you an apology for being too harsh on you

[misterpepp]

General ticket sales for Unsung Hero have begun today at some major chains, the early access has been on sale for quite some time.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes early access PLF shows on May 8th.

Edited March 27 by misterpepp

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

Sales really ratcheting up in my area for GxK. 70m+ doesn’t seem like a dream anymore.