The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Key somehow perfectly guessed Dune's opening weekend and domestic based on a day or so of EA sales so I'll trust his mid 60s prediction for GXK

I wish I could say I am the most accurate. But I am not(Too many variables and my data sample at times is too high and could have bias). Dune 2 was more of instinct based on expectations that Denis will deliver a RAVE and he did.

 

Go with @M37 normally as he looks at all the data from all locations. Generally that provides better perspective. @Porthos black magic is also at play for previews for big preview movies. So keep an eye on Sacramento data as well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

5x to 155k ish finish.

5x will be 167K. I think that’s a bit high, though 155K from 4.25x be fine.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

5x will be 167K. I think that’s a bit high, though 155K from 4.25x be fine.

Damn it. That was terrible. Updated to 150-165. Ballpark range. Since tomorrow is Quasi Friday evening in many markets, I think 5x is not outrageous. But somewhere between those 2. High end could take it close to 10 than 9 as it being a quasi friday means MTC1 ratio will be lower. Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

 

I hope @rehpyc also provides an update tomorrow as does @Inceptionzq

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Damn it. That was terrible. Updated to 150-165. Ballpark range. Since tomorrow is Quasi Friday evening in many markets, I think 5x is not outrageous. But somewhere between those 2. High end could take it close to 10 than 9 as it being a quasi friday means MTC1 ratio will be lower. Let us see how things go tomorrow. 

 

I hope @rehpyc also provides an update tomorrow as does @Inceptionzq

ATP is higher than all other mini-Tentpoles in recent times except Dune 2, so that is a plus as well.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

49 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 85565/646340 1580924.03 3534 shows +16410

Friday - 102461/1097919 1804552.17 6145 shows +21727

 

Strong day for sure. 4x from T-1 PS takes it to ~150K and 5x to ~165k ish finish. ~8-9m previews is in play. 

 

Friday should hit 160k ish by tomorrow night and hit 320-350K finish. High end could take it to 25m True Friday and 75m+ OW as @M37 had predicted yesterday. I think even @charlie Jatinder post about beating Dune 2 OW is in play. 

 

Well, let's just hope the critics give this good scores once the embargo lifts today, because those will decide if it scores a $75M+ launch or if it opens in the low-$60M range. There's no novelty factor to protect it, so the Tomato will decide its fate.

[Porthos]

 

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	188	22462	24760	2298	9.28%

 

Total Showings Added Today	16
Total Seats Added Today	841
Total Seats Sold Today	445

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	89.45		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	51.13%		7.69m
Wick 4	71.83		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	42.18%		6.39m
Fast X	96.43		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	55.75%		7.23m
AtSV	42.53		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	23.58%		7.38m
RotB	91.85		524	2502		0/183	22360/24862	10.06%		9744	23.58%		8.08m
FNAF	54.45		524	4220		0/235	23745/27965	15.09%		6466	35.54%		5.61m
BOSS	146.09		265	1573		0/136	15613/17186	9.15%		2701	85.08%		8.40m
GBFE	191.02		223	1203		0/201	27252/28455	4.23%		2197	104.60%		8.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       557/8482  [6.57% sold]
Matinee:    113/2416  [4.68% | 4.92% of all tickets sold]
3D:            313/5209  [6.01% | 13.62% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        1272/9733  [13.07% | 55.35% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Still showing growth on the sub 8m comps, but the trio of 8m+ comps I do have were a bit more mixed.  RotB fell a tiny amount, while BOSS and GBFE rose a tad.  But the later two under-performed locally, so who knows.  Most hopeful comp, I think, is Black Adam which rose a decent amount.

 

All in all, might be converging on 8m, but the error bars are still in play, I think.  Shame about reviews being day-of, but whatcha gonna do.

 

Not much else to add which hasn't already been said, so I'll leave it there for now.

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	21722	25007	3285	13.14%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	1
Total Net Seats Added Today	247
Total Seats Sold Today	987

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	104.15		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	73.10%		8.95m
Wick 4	83.91		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	60.30%		7.47m
Fast X	112.19		545	2928		0/243	30319/33247	8.81%		4122	79.69%		8.41m
AtSV	46.70		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	33.71%		8.10m
RotB	95.72		930	3432		0/201	22254/25686	13.36%		4973	66.06%		8.42m
FNAF	63.75		933	5153		0/246	23639/28792	17.90%		6466	50.80%		6.57m
BOSS	167.43		389	1962		0/141	15474/17436	11.25%		2701	121.62%		9.63m
GBFE	217.12		310	1513		0/208	27725/29238	5.17%		2197	149.52%		10.20m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        801/8863  [9.04% sold]
Matinee:    172/2543  [6.76% | 5.24% of all tickets sold]
3D:            445/5209  [8.54% | 13.55% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          1619/9733  [16.63% | 49.28% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Couldn't even sell 1000 tickets today.  Pathetic. 

 

*looks down at card*

 

Oh, I'm sorry.  That would have been pathetic for a Jurassic World entry on T-1. 

 

My.  Bad.

 

Now *THIS* is the sort of acceleration I've been looking for ever since Sunday Night.  Hell, this blows by the internal benchmark I had set in my head and said "BLLIPPP BLLIPPP BLLIPPP MEEP MEEP!!!!" as it did it.  How much did it blow by my internal benchmarks?  Well, let's put it this way.  It sold better on T-1 than Rise of the Beasts did... and that had a T-0 EA day!

 

Have to think the social media reactions are doing at least some of the work here, but make no mistake, this is showing why monster movies (and, yes, I consider JW/JP films to be monster movies) are seen to be the King of the Walkups.  This one arrived a teeeny bit later than normal, locally (again, I usually see a surge starting on Sunday Night), but...

 

Yeah.  Unless reviews are putrid tomorrow this is likely blasting past 9m in previews.  At the very least, have to think mid 8s is the floor (again barring putrid reviews).

 

Buckle up folks; tomorrow could be a wild day.

 

Edited March 28 by Porthos

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Porthos black magic is also at play for previews for big preview movies. So keep an eye on Sacramento data as well. 

 

*gets check from @Brainbug*

*waits to make sure it clears*

*transfers across multiple accounts so it can't get bounced/traced/retracted*

 

...

 

Sorry.  Did I say type any of that out loud?!?  Don't mind me, it's nothing.  Really. 😇

[Porthos]

Oh, yeah.  @M37

 

I was wr-

...

I was wro—

 

I wa—

 

...

 

I agree with you that at the time my local data did not support a 9m+ thesis. 

 

====

 

Okay, look, cards on the table.  Last few days some of the theaters that I trust to do well had been under-performing pretty badly.   Enough so that while Japanese-American absolutely does not equal Asian American Pacific Islander demo, I started to dig in a little bit to see how previous Monsterverse Godzilla films were reported among the AAPI demo as I figured that was the best info I could get on the subject.  I did this because I did note a causal correlation between the areas of town with a stronger AAPI presence and stronger theater sales.  Didn't get too far into that analysis though so I mostly just put it to the side, aside from casually inferring that I had been looking into it.

 

More to the point, I remembered what you said about both Black Adam  and Rise of the Beasts and I just didn't like the pace it was setting against Black Adam and Rise of the Beasts. Or rather, I didn't love it for seeing 9m+.  If I had remembered that RotB was getting goosed by EA sales, I probably would have been a bit more equivocal about it.  But even so, that it was only doing a little bit better than BA was weighing pretty heavily in my thoughts.  Even seeing 25 or 50 more ticket sales each of the last couple of days would have had me singing a pretty different song. I usually do see acceleration for walkup based films starting Sunday Night (reviews or no) and I hadn't seen enough of it.

 

(I blame WB's marketing rollout personally )

 

The more I think about it, the more I think social media reaction is doing its magic today.

 

Anyway, score yet another one for the Matrix. 👍

 

(Now we see if there is enough Dark Magic in the world to take this to...)

((no... let's not jinx it by putting that out into the world 😇))

(((Man, reviews really better not be ultra-putrid now )))

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	21722	25007	3285	13.14%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	1
Total Net Seats Added Today	247
Total Seats Sold Today	987

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	104.15		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	73.10%		8.95m
Wick 4	83.91		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	60.30%		7.47m
Fast X	112.19		545	2928		0/243	30319/33247	8.81%		4122	79.69%		8.41m
AtSV	46.70		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	33.71%		8.10m
RotB	95.72		930	3432		0/201	22254/25686	13.36%		4973	66.06%		8.42m
FNAF	63.75		933	5153		0/246	23639/28792	17.90%		6466	50.80%		6.57m
BOSS	167.43		389	1962		0/141	15474/17436	11.25%		2701	121.62%		9.63m
GBFE	217.12		310	1513		0/208	27725/29238	5.17%		2197	149.52%		10.20m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        801/8863  [9.04% sold]
Matinee:    172/2543  [6.76% | 5.24% of all tickets sold]
3D:            445/5209  [8.54% | 13.55% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          1619/9733  [16.63% | 49.28% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Couldn't even sell 1000 tickets today.  Pathetic. 

 

*looks down at card*

 

Oh, I'm sorry.  That would have been pathetic for a Jurassic World entry on T-1. 

 

My.  Bad.

 

Now *THIS* is the sort of acceleration I've been looking for ever since Sunday Night.  Hell, this blows by the internal benchmark I had set in my head and said "BLLIPPP BLLIPPP BLLIPPP MEEP MEEP!!!!" as it did it.  How much did it blow by my internal benchmarks?  Well, let's put it this way.  It sold better on T-1 than Rise of the Beasts did... and that had a T-0 EA day!

 

Have to think the social media reactions are doing at least some of the work here, but make no mistake, this is showing why monster movies (and, yes, I consider JW/JP films to be monster movies) are seen to be the King of the Walkups.  This one arrived a teeeny bit later than normal, locally (again, I usually see a surge starting on Sunday Night), but...

 

Yeah.  Unless reviews are putrid tomorrow this is likely blasting past 9m in previews.  At the very least, have to think mid 8s is the floor (again barring putrid reviews).

 

Buckle up folks; tomorrow could be a wild day.

 

Just a reminder that you will likely be overindexing as CA is on spring break this week. MiniTC2 for instance overindex by ~50-70% when AZ is on Spring break. 

That said, since you don't track walkups, the impact in your case is probably low. 

 

Also since 70%+ schools are off nationwide on FRI, that should also lower overindexing degree a bit.

Edited March 28 by charlie Jatinder

[vafrow]

On 3/27/2024 at 5:00 AM, vafrow said:

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-2, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 497

New Sales: 95

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 24

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 20.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 117/6

Early Evening: 214/9

Late Evening: 166/9

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 46/4

Dolby 3D: 174/6
VIP: 106/5

4DX: 48/3

Regular 3D: 3/3

IMAX: 120/3

 

Comps

1.362x HG: BoSS for $7.8M

1.124x Madame Web for $6.8M

2.133x Aquaman 2 for $9.6M

Average: $8.1M

 

Another strong day. It actually has slightly kower growth than yes, but as others have said, this isn't getting any real review bump at this stage.

 

It stayed flat with comps, and I imagine the late growth bodes well for walk ups. 

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 661

New Sales: 164

Growth: 33%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 24

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 27.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 141/6

Early Evening: 295/9

Late Evening: 225/9

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 72/4

Dolby 3D: 236/6
VIP: 130/5

4DX: 68/3

Regular 3D: 7/3

IMAX: 148/3

 

Comps

1.570x HG: BoSS for $9.0M

1.236x Madame Web for $7.5M

2.122x Aquaman 2 for $9.5M

Average: $8.7M

 

Count me in this exceeding expectations. It's averaged 30% daily growth these last few days. But most importantly, it's well set up for walk ups. It's sold well so far, but it's all very evenly spread. The split between matinees, early evening and late evening is 21/45/34 percent. The only shows that are reaching capacity are a couple of the smaller VIP showings.

 

There's lots of choice and variety for anyone doing walk ups today, but still have a healthy baseline of sales and a clear growth pattern going into today.

 

I might try and look up where sales are at lunch to assess walk ups if I have time.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/17/2024 at 2:28 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Godzilla X Kong MiniTC2 T-12 Days

 

Previews - 985/48193 (182 showings)

 

Comps

1.14x John Wick 4 four days - $10.2M

1.45x Black Adam four days - $10.9M (inf. adj. $11.5M+)

1.47x Hunger Games: BOSS four days - $8.5M

Godzilla x Kong MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Previews -  5208/55979 (218 showings) $74K

 

Comps

John Wick 4 - $6.5M

Indiana Jones - $7.8M

Fast X - $8.8M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $8.8M

 

The above are tix sold comps, gross comps are roughly 5% higher due to higher ATP.

 

California locs are over-indexing being around 27% of total, normally they are 17-20%

[charlie Jatinder]

Godzilla x Kong MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Friday - 7707/136291 (586 showings) $105K

 

Comps

John Wick 4 - $18.2M

Indiana Jones - $19M

Fast X - $26.3M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $26.8M

 

Same as above, tickets sold comps. Gross comps are 5% higher. 

 

Points to $20M+ could be in the $23-25M range.

[vafrow]

On 3/27/2024 at 5:07 AM, vafrow said:

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-9, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 29

New Sales : 8

Growth: 38%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 22/2

Late Evening: 7/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 27/2
Regular: 2/2

 

Comps

0.162x HG: BoSS for $0.9M

0.420x Aquaman 2 for $1.9M

0.053x Dune 2 for $0.5M

Average: $1.1M

 

 

With the full showtimes up, it's now playing in all 5 theatres in my sample, up from just the two. All the new sales were from the existing showtimes though, but I'm guessing that the new ones just need a couple of days before they pick up.

 

I'll need to figure out what comps I can use now that I have a full set of screens, but options are limited. I might throw Aquaman in there, just as something action driven and male skewing, but that's about it.

 

Edit: added comps. Since over half the showings just got added, I expect that comps will rise (as well as comparing franchises to an original film).

 

Monkey Man, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-8, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 38

New Sales : 9

Growth: 31%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 10

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.8

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 31/2

Late Evening: 7/2

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 27/2
Regular: 11/2

 

Comps

0.197x HG: BoSS for $1.1M

0.469x Aquaman 2 for $2.1M

0.067x Dune 2 for $0.7M

Average: $1.3M

 

Sales are picking up. 

[el sid]

Today I will count GxK again, promised, but yesterday I was too lazy.

 

So I counted The First Omen which went very fast because it had a very modest start in my theaters.

It had for Thursday, April 4, 28 sold tickets with showtimes in all of the 7 theaters. And for Friday it looked even worse.

 

Comps (all four films also counted after ca. 24 hours on sale and for Thursday): The Exorcist had 168 sold tickets,

M3gan had 57,

Beast had 53

and The Black Phone had 95 sold tickets.

Prey for the Devil had on Monday of the release week 140 sold tickets for Thursday.

 

So really a disappointing start but I guess that GxK is partly to blame because everything else gets overlooked at the moment.

 

 

[Brainbug]

Reading the last few pages in this thread this morning is better than re-watching Jurassic World.

[Eric Duncan]

41 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Reading the last few pages in this thread this morning is better than re-watching Jurassic World.

A root canal is better than re-watching Jurassic World.

[Brainbug]

21 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

A root canal is better than re-watching Jurassic World.

 

I disagree!

[SchumacherFTW]

25 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

A root canal is better than re-watching Jurassic World.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-1	Jax	5	66	110	656	10,917	6.01%
		Phx	7	60	114	724	9,261	7.82%
		Ral	8	65	121	593	8,416	7.05%
	Total		20	191	345	1,973	28,594	6.90%
Land of Saints	T-1	Jax	4	12	6	9	1,567	0.57%
		Phx	3	7	1	3	531	0.56%
		Ral	2	5	0	1	274	0.36%
	Total		9	24	7	13	2,372	0.55%

 

Godzilla x Kong T-1 adjusted comps

 - TMNT - 2.68x (11.16m)

 - M:I 7 - 1.3x (8.47m)
 - Venom 2 - .746x (9.18m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.06x (9.13m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .327x (5.92m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.41x (8.62m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 1.41x (6.32m)

 - Ghostbusters Frozen - 1.76x (7.9m)

 - Transformers - 1.241x (9.06m) 

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.47m

 

I updated my comps to previews only (excluding EA).  

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Godzilla x Kong	80.18%	29.04%	22.39%	21.19%
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
M:I 7	58.27%	31.32%	20.00%	20.81%
Venom 2	101.37%	34.65%	21.56%	30.37%
Suicide Squad	86.74%	22.81%	23.74%	31.23%
JW3	-	-	16.55%	19.39%
Sonic 2	80.88%	28.94%	23.45%	30.60%
Ghostbusters	74.47%	28.14%	18.02%	28.41%
Ghostbusters: FE	66.82%	29.02%	21.38%	26.81%
Transformers 6	70.78%	25.67%	-	28.02%

 

Pace still looking great against comps.  Yesterday not as good as I hoped, but 3-day still ahead of schedule.  Normal circumstances without any ATP adjustments would be looking in the 7m range but I'm holding onto hope of 8m+

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-0	Jax	5	66	225	881	10,917	8.07%
		Phx	7	61	257	981	9,600	10.22%
		Ral	8	70	256	849	8,656	9.81%
	Total		20	197	738	2,711	29,173	9.29%
Land of Saints	T-0	Jax	4	12	6	15	1,567	0.96%
		Phx	4	9	2	5	749	0.67%
		Ral	2	5	0	1	274	0.36%
	Total		10	26	8	21	2,590	0.81%

 

Godzilla x Kong T-0 adjusted comps

 - TMNT - 2.38x (9.91m)

 - M:I 7 - 1.2x (7.82m)
 - Venom 2 - .724x (8.91m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.14x (9.48m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .366x (6.63m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.55x (9.46m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 1.51x (6.79m)

 - Ghostbusters Frozen - 1.78x (7.97m)

 - Transformers - 1.19x (8.68m) 

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.62m

 

I updated my comps to previews only (excluding EA).  

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Godzilla x Kong	112.13%	31.14%	25.23%	37.40%
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%
Venom 2	134.52%	39.85%	25.00%	41.57%
Suicide Squad	105.35%	31.12%	25.65%	32.25%
JW3	74.57%	26.30%	16.76%	22.63%
Sonic 2	98.08%	31.75%	21.52%	25.21%
Ghostbusters	95.85%	-	-	27.91%
Ghostbusters: FE	107.19%	32.70%	19.96%	36.22%
Transformers 6	115.50%	29.21%	-	43.40%

 

Pace is still looking good.  3-day is right on track.  The closest comps pace-wise are on the higher end.  Ghostbusters, JW3 and Sonic should still come up today.  I'm thinking we'll see somewhere in the low 9s when all is said and done.  

 

Land of Saints T-0 comps

 - Blacklight - .389x (90k)

 - Amsterdam - .121x (56k)

 - Copshop - .656x (87k)