The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

lol @M37's new avatar. 👍

 

(I take partial credit for it, ftr)

Porthos be like

 

Spoiler

Ive actually been meaning to change it for a while, but seemly every time I thought of something interesting, couldn't find an appropriate pic under the file size limit. This time it hit on first try, so Esto quod es

 

[DAJK]

Strong start so far here on the West Coast. Walkup % is very good too. Don’t know how much forecasts have accounted for walk-ups, but strong west coast walkups (usually) mean we’ll see an increase from the earliest estimates.

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited March 28 by kayumanggi

[HummingLemon496]

Only OGs will remember when M37 was Shazam 😭

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:10pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	21131	25007	3876	15.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

591

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD [12:00-12:15]	40.84		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	35.35%		7.35m
BA [11:35-12:25]	107.07		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	86.25%		8.14m
Wick 4 [11:45-12:25]	89.21		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	71.15%		7.94m
Fast X [11:30-12:05]	113.83		477	3405		0/243	29842/33247	10.24%		4122	94.03%		8.54m
AtSV [11:40-12:15]	48.04		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	39.78%		8.34m
RotB [11:40-12:10]	98.90		487	3919		0/202	21893/25812	15.18%		4973	77.94%		8.70m
FNAF [11:40-12:15]	68.58		499	5652		0/264	24678/30330	18.64%		6466	59.94%		7.06m
BOSS [11:50-12:15]	174.28		262	2224		0/148	15852/18076	12.30%		2701	143.50%		10.02m
GBFE [11:35-12:10]	220.48		245	1758		0/208	27480/29238	6.01%		2197	176.42%		10.36m

 

Regal:        953/8863  [10.75% sold]
Matinee:    246/2543  [9.67% | 6.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:            553/5209  [10.62% | 14.27% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         1847/9733  [18.98% | 47.65% of all tickets sold]

 

============

 

RECALCULATING TWO COMPS DUE TO ERROR IN SHEETS RELOAD IN FIVE MINUTES

RECALCULATION DONE — SEE BELOW FOR NEW/UPDATED ANALYSIS

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:55pm  - 4:20pm]

* NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of the screening.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	19902	25007	5105	20.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1229

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD [3:45-4:35]	46.55		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	46.55%		8.38m
BA [3:50-4:30]	113.60		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	113.60%		8.63m
Wick 4 [3:50-4:15]	93.70		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	93.70%		8.34m
Fast X [3:50-4:15]	123.85		717	4122		0/243	29125/33247	12.40%		4122	123.85%		9.29m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	52.39		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	52.39%		9.09m
RotB [3:50-4:15]	102.65		1054	4973		0/202	20839/25812	19.27%		4973	102.65%		9.03m
FNAF [3:50-4:20]	78.95		814	6466		0/274	24505/30971	20.88%		6466	78.95%		8.13m
BOSS [3:55-4:15]	189.00		477	2701		0/148	15375/18076	14.94%		2701	189.00%		10.87m
GBFE [3:50-4:15]	232.36		439	2197		0/208	27083/29280	7.50%		2197	232.36%		10.92m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1294/8863  [14.60% sold]
Matinee:    393/2543  [15.45% | 7.70% of all tickets sold]
3D:             756/5209  [14.51% | 14.81% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          2213/9733  [22.74% | 43.35% of all tickets sold]

 

=========

 

 

W-O-W!

 

What an end to the day!  Just sales everywhere.  And it's fairly strong into the night as well, as 8pm'ers and 9pm'ers are selling pretty briskly as well.  Just goes to show the powah of a Friday holiday (as noted by @keysersoze123)

 

As such, can see this growing throughout the night.

 

Still, don't want to get to far ahead of my skis here.  Already did that once today, and that was enough thank you veddy much.  As I said at the mid-day, ignore the BOSS and GB:FE comps as those underperformed and were far lower in overall gross, which distorts the comps. 

 

The JWD comp does give me some pause, but GxK has a much better PLF share than JWD did (43.35% vs 33.94%).  Better 3D share as well (14.51% vs 10.92%).  Plus there has indeed been some ATP hikes since then.

 

Fast X, Rise of the Beasts, and Across the Spider-Verse are all more or less in the same ballpark so let's use them as anchors and go with 9.1m +/- .5m.

 

Now as @charlie Jatinder noted, Spring Break might be playing a role here, but I have a hard time seeing below 8.5m (hence the cutoff).  Plus even if Spring Break is putting a thumb on the scale, tomorrow being Good Friday might neuter that to a degree.  

 

Still, Sacramento might be running hot.  Even so, undeniable how strong it finished here.  Now?  Now we wait and see just how strong it was elsewhere.

 

 

Edited March 28 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

 

Things are getting intersting...

Update at 9pm est

Edited March 29 by TheFlatLannister

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/21/2024 at 12:58 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla x Kong Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-7 Thursday

128 Showings

682

+179

20905

1.220	Transformers T-7	10.74M
0.333	AtSV T-7	5.78M

 

T-8 Friday

198 Showings

1204

+343

32845

2.333	Transformers T-8	39.32M
0.603	AtSV T-8	20.79M

 

T-9 Saturday

201 Showings

869

+143

33946

2.050	Transformers T-9	39.66M
0.817	AtSV T-9	30.57M

 

T-10 Sunday

199 Showings

188

+52

32947

0.959	Transformers T-10	14.87M
0.486	AtSV T-10	15.18M

Godzilla x Kong Emagine Entertainment [+7 days of sales]

T-0 Thursday

159 Showings

4594

+3912

23868

2.565

GB Frozen T-0

12.06M

1.774	Transformers T-0	15.61M
0.543	AtSV T-0	9.42M

 

T-1 Friday

307 Showings

6850

+5646

44974

2.358

GB Frozen T-1

26.88M

2.128	Transformers T-1	35.86M
0.792	AtSV T-1	27.31M

 

T-2 Saturday

310 Showings

3559

+2690

45266

1.306

GB Frozen T-2

23.10M

1.997	Transformers T-2	38.65M
0.720	AtSV T-2	26.92M

 

T-3 Sunday

306 Showings

859

+671

44051

0.768

GB Frozen T-3

8.61M

0.963	Transformers T-3	14.93M
0.405	AtSV T-3	12.64M

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/21/2024 at 12:56 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla x Kong Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-7 Thursday

119 Showings

2196

+327

18964

ATP:

16.26

0.350	AtSV T-7	6.07M
1.121	Black Adam T-7	8.52M

 

T-8 Friday

160 Showings

2693

+519

26287

ATP:

15.64

0.480	AtSV T-8	16.54M
1.701	Black Adam T-8	32.48M

 

T-9 Saturday

154 Showings

1850

+319

25773

ATP:

15.14

0.349	AtSV T-9	13.06M
1.163	Black Adam T-9	27.57M

 

T-10 Sunday

136 Showings

599

+90

23518

ATP:

15.80

0.180	AtSV T-10	5.62M
1.095	Black Adam T-10	18.18M

Godzilla x Kong Alamo Drafthouse [+7 days of sales]

T-0 Thursday

191 Showings

6907

+4711

26677

ATP:

15.61

1.195	GB Frozen T-0	5.62M
0.387	AtSV T-0	6.72M
1.472	Transformers T-0	12.95M
1.112	Black Adam T-0	8.45M
0.448	JW Dominion T-0	8.06M

 

T-1 Friday

317 Showings

8756

+6063

43770

ATP:

14.83

1.337	GB Frozen T-1	15.24M
0.511	AtSV T-1	17.62M
2.393	Transformers T-1	40.32M
1.400	Black Adam T-1	26.73M
0.493	JW Dominion T-1	20.50M

 

T-2 Saturday

316 Showings

5585

+3735

43799

ATP:

14.50

0.741	GB Frozen T-2	13.11M
0.397	AtSV T-2	14.84M
2.109	Transformers T-2	40.81M
1.045	Black Adam T-2	24.79M
0.342	JW Dominion T-2	16.05M

 

T-3 Sunday

289 Showings

1952

+1353

39999

ATP:

14.79

0.495	GB Frozen T-3	5.56M
0.223	AtSV T-3	6.96M
1.453	Transformers T-3	22.53M
0.897	Black Adam T-3	14.89M
0.203	JW Dominion T-3	7.83M

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

Things are getting intersting...

Update at 9pm est

 

"Early Deadline Estimates" of 7.5m+incoming in 3... 2....

[M37]

11 hours ago, M37 said:

So like $8.9M +\- $0.5M, on the higher end of range, pending walk-ups today. Very curious about Miami in particular 

 

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

Things are getting interesting...

Update at 9pm est

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

"Early Deadline Estimates" of 7.5m+incoming in 3... 2....

 

I cant wait for the Deadline update where it say its 8M previews and they have their weekend projection still at 50M.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I cant wait for the Deadline update where it say its 8M previews and they have their weekend projection still at 50M.

 

Hey, what do you want from them?!? THEY ALWAYS INCLUDE A "+" SOMEWHERE IN THERE!!!  THEY'RE TOTALLY COVERED THEN!!!

 

(so did I in my meme post you quoted, ftr 😉)

Edited March 29 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/21/2024 at 12:55 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla X Kong Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

144

1025

14.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

162

1823

8.89%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
794	81	19117	4.15%	12	100

 

0.702	Transformers T-7	6.18M
0.352	AtSV T-7	6.11M
0.960	Black Adam T-7	7.30M

Godzilla X Kong Denver Thursday

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 7 DAYS
3126	2332

 

1.384	GB Frozen T-0	6.51M
0.931	Transformers T-0	8.19M
0.472	AtSV T-0	8.19M
1.075	Black Adam T-0	8.17M
0.437	JW Dominion T-0	7.87M

 

Emagine and Drafthouse were run at normal times. Denver was run in the morning because I won't be able to manually start scripts for these early start times anymore. Should be able to set it up to run at normal times in the future though.

 

Emagine is definitely overperforming, and Drafthouse is kinda all over the place. Getting rid of outliers and bumping Denver up say 200 tickets(just an arbitrary number really) to account for the early script run time, I get an average of 8.63M. I'll go with that

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I cant wait for the Deadline update where it say its 8M previews and they have their weekend projection still at 50M.

EXCLUSIVE: “We may have a big hit on our hands,” beamed one person close to the production of Warner/Legendary Picture's Godzilla X Kong today. And while the movie, which hits screens at 3PM today, is projected to do around $50M, there are some crazy projections out there between $55M to $90M. Everybody calm down ...

Tonight, box office sources tell us that Thursday previews are racking up north of $7M

 

This is a real Deadline early write-up [only edited to swap in GxK details] of a recent release - anyone know what it was?

 

Spoiler

Answer

 

Spoiler

Which made $10.3M Thursday and $80M OW - so much for calming down 🤪

 

 

 

Edited March 29 by M37

[dallas]

Common Godzilla W 

[TheFlatLannister]

33 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

Things are getting intersting...

Update at 9pm est

Godzilla is beating Dune 2 right now (Not too shocking) 

 

What's crazy is it's blowing Panda 4 out of the water in terms of walkups and that was THE walkup film in Miami

 

Combined comp is at $9.65M right now!!!

[WorkingonaName]

we won

[DAJK]

 

These walkups that I’m seeing…

 

I still think it’s too early to call, but if late eve shows hold up, I wouldn’t be surprised to say that 10M is in play…

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Godzilla is beating Dune 2 right now (Not too shocking) 

 

What's crazy is it's blowing Panda 4 out of the water in terms of walkups and that was THE walkup film in Miami

 

Combined comp is at $9.65M right now!!!

 

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

 

These walkups that I’m seeing…

 

I still think it’s too early to call, but if late eve shows hold up, I wouldn’t be surprised to say that 10M is in play…

 

Quick, someone check TikTok to see if there's a "FOUR TICKETS TO GODZILLA PLEASE" zillameme going on!

[Brainbug]

Oh man i have to say that im a bit proud of myself that i called this movies potential to have a bit of a breakout with my 200M DOM club.

 

I think we can compare GxK to Dune 2 in the sense that both their predecessors were cut short of their potential by the pandemic and day-and-date release back in 2021. And both had very good audience responses and now reap the benefits.