The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric the Ape]

Moderation

 

Yeah, just a reminder we have a Godzilla X Kong thread where this critics discourse is more appropriate. Just saying.

[THUNDER BIRD]

Yeah, let's forget about critics and social media influencers. Movie has hit the theaters and people are going to watch it. And whatever their judgement is, is what matters at the end.

[vafrow]

8 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 661

New Sales: 164

Growth: 33%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 24

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 27.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 141/6

Early Evening: 295/9

Late Evening: 225/9

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 72/4

Dolby 3D: 236/6
VIP: 130/5

4DX: 68/3

Regular 3D: 7/3

IMAX: 148/3

 

Comps

1.570x HG: BoSS for $9.0M

1.236x Madame Web for $7.5M

2.122x Aquaman 2 for $9.5M

Average: $8.7M

 

Count me in this exceeding expectations. It's averaged 30% daily growth these last few days. But most importantly, it's well set up for walk ups. It's sold well so far, but it's all very evenly spread. The split between matinees, early evening and late evening is 21/45/34 percent. The only shows that are reaching capacity are a couple of the smaller VIP showings.

 

There's lots of choice and variety for anyone doing walk ups today, but still have a healthy baseline of sales and a clear growth pattern going into today.

 

I might try and look up where sales are at lunch to assess walk ups if I have time.

 

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-0 2:00 pm, Thursday Previews 

 

Total Sales: 826

New Sales: 165

Growth: 25%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 24

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 34.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 183/6

Early Evening: 393/9

Late Evening: 250/9

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 120/4

Dolby 3D: 289/6
VIP: 139/5

4DX: 70/3

Regular 3D: 18/3

IMAX: 190/3

 

Did a midday pull. 25% growth over the course of the day

 Last week GB was 16% at lunch. The system was down for a few hours though, so timing differences balance out, and points to a strong walk up rate.

 

Walk ups seem more concentrated on lower price showings (which is standard Dolby and 3D, as there's no regular showings for this), but still a decent IMAX bump.

 

As you can't pull retroactively, it's too difficult to pull anything later. I don't have great data to compare walk ups, but it feels pretty positive.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

17 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
713	8121	143526	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1318

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

69

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.708x) of Dune 2 $6.58M  

(1.212x) of Ghostbusters $5.70M  

(2.681x) of KFP4 $10.18M  

Comps average: $7.49M 

 

Surely going to be over $8M by tomorrow's check. A phenomenal day all around

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
713	11369	143526	7.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 2:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

3248

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.833x) of Dune 2 $7.75M  

(1.463x) of Ghostbusters $6.88M  

(2.823x) of KFP4 $10.73M  

Comps average: $8.45M 

 

Yeah, $9M does not seem like a crazy number to reach 
A pretty explosive ending to presales I would say. Went up $1M in comps average in a few hours!

[Porthos]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	21722	25007	3285	13.14%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	1
Total Net Seats Added Today	247
Total Seats Sold Today	987

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	104.15		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	73.10%		8.95m
Wick 4	83.91		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	60.30%		7.47m
Fast X	112.19		545	2928		0/243	30319/33247	8.81%		4122	79.69%		8.41m
AtSV	46.70		1632	7035		0/251	23809/30844	22.81%		9744	33.71%		8.10m
RotB	95.72		930	3432		0/201	22254/25686	13.36%		4973	66.06%		8.42m
FNAF	63.75		933	5153		0/246	23639/28792	17.90%		6466	50.80%		6.57m
BOSS	167.43		389	1962		0/141	15474/17436	11.25%		2701	121.62%		9.63m
GBFE	217.12		310	1513		0/208	27725/29238	5.17%		2197	149.52%		10.20m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        801/8863  [9.04% sold]
Matinee:    172/2543  [6.76% | 5.24% of all tickets sold]
3D:            445/5209  [8.54% | 13.55% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          1619/9733  [16.63% | 49.28% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Couldn't even sell 1000 tickets today.  Pathetic. 

 

*looks down at card*

 

Oh, I'm sorry.  That would have been pathetic for a Jurassic World entry on T-1. 

 

My.  Bad.

 

Now *THIS* is the sort of acceleration I've been looking for ever since Sunday Night.  Hell, this blows by the internal benchmark I had set in my head and said "BLLIPPP BLLIPPP BLLIPPP MEEP MEEP!!!!" as it did it.  How much did it blow by my internal benchmarks?  Well, let's put it this way.  It sold better on T-1 than Rise of the Beasts did... and that had a T-0 EA day!

 

Have to think the social media reactions are doing at least some of the work here, but make no mistake, this is showing why monster movies (and, yes, I consider JW/JP films to be monster movies) are seen to be the King of the Walkups.  This one arrived a teeeny bit later than normal, locally (again, I usually see a surge starting on Sunday Night), but...

 

Yeah.  Unless reviews are putrid tomorrow this is likely blasting past 9m in previews.  At the very least, have to think mid 8s is the floor (again barring putrid reviews).

 

Buckle up folks; tomorrow could be a wild day.

 

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:10pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	21131	25007	3876	15.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

591

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD [12:00-12:15]	40.84		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	35.35%		7.35m
BA [11:35-12:25]	107.07		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	86.25%		8.14m
Wick 4 [11:45-12:25]	89.21		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	71.15%		7.94m
Fast X [11:30-12:05]	113.83		477	3405		0/243	29842/33247	10.24%		4122	94.03%		8.54m
AtSV [11:40-12:15]	48.04		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	39.78%		8.34m
RotB [11:40-12:10]	98.90		487	3919		0/202	21893/25812	15.18%		4973	77.94%		8.70m
FNAF [11:40-12:15]	68.58		499	5652		0/264	24678/30330	18.64%		6466	59.94%		7.06m
BOSS [11:50-12:15]	174.28		262	2224		0/148	15852/18076	12.30%		2701	143.50%		10.02m
GBFE [11:35-12:10]	220.48		245	1758		0/208	27480/29238	6.01%		2197	176.42%		10.36m

 

Regal:        953/8863  [10.75% sold]
Matinee:    246/2543  [9.67% | 6.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:            553/5209  [10.62% | 14.27% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         1847/9733  [18.98% | 47.65% of all tickets sold]

 

============

 

RECALCULATING TWO COMPS DUE TO ERROR IN SHEETS RELOAD IN FIVE MINUTES

RECALCULATION DONE — SEE BELOW FOR NEW/UPDATED ANALYSIS

Edited March 28 by Porthos

[Porthos]

=

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:10pm]

 

Ah Christ.

 

I JUST noticed an error in my sheets that's been there since Day One that none of y'all caught in regards the Black Adam comp that got transferred to JWD. 

 

Fixing and updating shortly

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:10pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	21131	25007	3876	15.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

591

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps

 

RECALCULATING TWO COMPS DUE TO ERROR IN SHEETS RELOAD IN FIVE MINUTES

 

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

=

 

Ah Christ.

 

I JUST noticed an error in my sheets that's been there since Day One that none of y'all caught in regards the Black Adam comp that got transferred to JWD. 

 

Fixing and updating shortly

 

Fuging fuck. 

 

Okay, I accidentally have been applying the GBA ATP adjustment to the Black Adam comp since fucking day 1 and literally none of y'all noticed it.  Hell I only noticed it because I was doing some cross referencing against the newly added JWD comp.

 

So here is the corrected block with slightly different analysis:

 

===================

 

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD [12:00-12:15]	40.84		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	35.35%		7.35m
BA [11:35-12:25]	107.07		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	86.25%		8.14m
Wick 4 [11:45-12:25]	89.21		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	71.15%		7.94m
Fast X [11:30-12:05]	113.83		477	3405		0/243	29842/33247	10.24%		4122	94.03%		8.54m
AtSV [11:40-12:15]	48.04		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	39.78%		8.34m
RotB [11:40-12:10]	98.90		487	3919		0/202	21893/25812	15.18%		4973	77.94%		8.70m
FNAF [11:40-12:15]	68.58		499	5652		0/264	24678/30330	18.64%		6466	59.94%		7.06m
BOSS [11:50-12:15]	174.28		262	2224		0/148	15852/18076	12.30%		2701	143.50%		10.02m
GBFE [11:35-12:10]	220.48		245	1758		0/208	27480/29238	6.01%		2197	176.42%		10.36m

 

Alright.  Yeah that makes a bit of a difference but only a bit.   Now thinking 8.75m as an initial target, but still looking at 9m as a possibility due to gaining on all comps.

 

Fuckity fuck fuck.

 

Mind, it was ONLY the Black Adam (and added for two minutes) JWD comps which were polluted, but it still was enough for me to get a bit over my skis. 

 

So, yeah.  Most of my analysis (which looks like I deleted in a fit of anger) still stands due to growth but now seeing 9m as a ceiling and not a midpoint.

 

Meh.

 

-----

 

Since I deleted most of my initial thoughts, here is the Cliff Notes Version.

 

Good start to the day, IMO.  Having strong enough walkups that it's still gaining quite a bit on most comps.  Do ignore, for the most part, the THG:BOSS and GB:FE comps as they under-performed pretty badly here.  Plus the inherent danger of comping films in the 4m to 5m range versus those in the 8m to 9m range.

 

All of those extra days on JWD is still making a difference, IMO.

 

And, when it comes down to it, there probably HAS been some ATP hikes since Black Adam, plus having a higher PLF share.  Still, inexcusable that I didn't notice this until now.

 

(Maybe Dark Magic works in mysterious ways)

Edited March 28 by Porthos

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

literally none of y'all noticed it

We're supposed to be checking everyone's work too?  I can barely keep up as it is!

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

We're supposed to be checking everyone's work too?  I can barely keep up as it is!

 

Hey, people have corrected me before on much more obscure things in my comps!  

 

(values were probably low enough that it wasn't becoming apparent until just now)

((mostly I'm annoyed at myself for this when it comes right down to it))

 

[vafrow]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

We're supposed to be checking everyone's work too?  I can barely keep up as it is!

 

My cycle with this thread:

 

1) This is a useful and interesting discussion. I am going to visit regularly so I can get valuable insight into box office forecasts.

 

2) This community is fun and supportive, that I want to contribute something to this thread and start tracking.

 

3) I am overwhelmed with tracking, and use my energy to get my posts up, and barely skim the other trackers, which was the reason I came here in the first place.

[Cookson]

8-9 is still pretty decent though. Hopefully it can pull in more! 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Hey, people have corrected me before on much more obscure things in my comps!  

 

(values were probably low enough that it wasn't becoming apparent until just now)

((mostly I'm annoyed at myself for this when it comes right down to it))

 

I noticed it looked weirdly high but forgot to ask/didn't think too much of it.

[Grand Cine]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:10pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	21131	25007	3876	15.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

591

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD [12:00-12:15]	40.84		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	35.35%		7.35m
BA [11:35-12:25]	107.07		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	86.25%		8.14m
Wick 4 [11:45-12:25]	89.21		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	71.15%		7.94m
Fast X [11:30-12:05]	113.83		477	3405		0/243	29842/33247	10.24%		4122	94.03%		8.54m
AtSV [11:40-12:15]	48.04		1033	8068		0/251	22776/30844	26.16%		9744	39.78%		8.34m
RotB [11:40-12:10]	98.90		487	3919		0/202	21893/25812	15.18%		4973	77.94%		8.70m
FNAF [11:40-12:15]	68.58		499	5652		0/264	24678/30330	18.64%		6466	59.94%		7.06m
BOSS [11:50-12:15]	174.28		262	2224		0/148	15852/18076	12.30%		2701	143.50%		10.02m
GBFE [11:35-12:10]	220.48		245	1758		0/208	27480/29238	6.01%		2197	176.42%		10.36m

 

Regal:        953/8863  [10.75% sold]
Matinee:    246/2543  [9.67% | 6.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:            553/5209  [10.62% | 14.27% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         1847/9733  [18.98% | 47.65% of all tickets sold]

 

============

 

RECALCULATING TWO COMPS DUE TO ERROR IN SHEETS RELOAD IN FIVE MINUTES

RECALCULATION DONE — SEE BELOW FOR NEW/UPDATED ANALYSIS

I think in Sacramento, GxK ,in normal situation , finish around 4,7-4,8K so around 8,5M for the average but i think with Good Friday tomorrow and if the movie plays like RotB i think he will finish more around 5K so around 9M

[AMCTheater2000]

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

12 minutes ago, AMCTheater2000 said:

 

King of the Monsters had the issue of being largely rejected unseen by the casuals as a result of the stench of the 2014 movie and the poor reviews, so only the diehard fans showed up, hence the aforementioned low internal multiplier and the steep second weekend drop. It'll definitely be a nailbiter to see if the casuals actually show up for this one.

[cooldude97]

 

[keysersoze123]

One call out I would give is one has to be careful extrapolating without walkups as this is not a normal thursday with Friday being off for many. Unless its for a similar release date, extrapolation without capturing walkups could be off. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	T-0	Jax	5	66	225	881	10,917	8.07%
		Phx	7	61	257	981	9,600	10.22%
		Ral	8	70	256	849	8,656	9.81%
	Total		20	197	738	2,711	29,173	9.29%
Land of Saints	T-0	Jax	4	12	6	15	1,567	0.96%
		Phx	4	9	2	5	749	0.67%
		Ral	2	5	0	1	274	0.36%
	Total		10	26	8	21	2,590	0.81%

 

Godzilla x Kong T-0 adjusted comps

 - TMNT - 2.38x (9.91m)

 - M:I 7 - 1.2x (7.82m)
 - Venom 2 - .724x (8.91m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.14x (9.48m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .366x (6.63m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.55x (9.46m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 1.51x (6.79m)

 - Ghostbusters Frozen - 1.78x (7.97m)

 - Transformers - 1.19x (8.68m) 

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.62m

 

I updated my comps to previews only (excluding EA).  

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Godzilla x Kong	112.13%	31.14%	25.23%	37.40%
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
M:I 7	103.41%	34.50%	23.32%	48.85%
Venom 2	134.52%	39.85%	25.00%	41.57%
Suicide Squad	105.35%	31.12%	25.65%	32.25%
JW3	74.57%	26.30%	16.76%	22.63%
Sonic 2	98.08%	31.75%	21.52%	25.21%
Ghostbusters	95.85%	-	-	27.91%
Ghostbusters: FE	107.19%	32.70%	19.96%	36.22%
Transformers 6	115.50%	29.21%	-	43.40%

 

Pace is still looking good.  3-day is right on track.  The closest comps pace-wise are on the higher end.  Ghostbusters, JW3 and Sonic should still come up today.  I'm thinking we'll see somewhere in the low 9s when all is said and done.  

 

Land of Saints T-0 comps

 - Blacklight - .389x (90k)

 - Amsterdam - .121x (56k)

 - Copshop - .656x (87k)

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Godzilla x Kong	1-Hr	Jax	5	66	377	1,258	10,917	11.52%
		Phx	7	61	225	1,206	9,600	12.56%
		Ral	8	70	559	1,408	8,656	16.27%
	Total		20	197	1,161	3,872	29,173	13.27%

 

Godzilla x Kong T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - TMNT - 2.47x (10.27m)

 - M:I 7 - 1.23x (8.01m)
 - Venom 2 - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.98x (8.77m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .394x (7.15m)

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 1.62x (7.29m)

 - Ghostbusters Frozen - 1.96x (8.8m)

 - Transformers - 1.09x (7.97m) 

 - Dune 2 - .815x (7.69m)

 - Black Adam - 1.02x (8.08m)

 - Barbie - .339x (8.63m)

 - Shang-Chi - .945x (8.81m)

 - Flash - .796x (7.72m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.12x (7.04m)

 - Oppenheimer - .739x (7.77m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.63m

 

I threw in a bunch of other potential comps just to get a wider perspective.  Still a lot of comps coming in under 8m but the walkups are looking great.  Without seeing other final runs I'll plant my flag at 8.8m.

[Porthos]

lol @M37's new avatar. 👍

 

(I take partial credit for it, ftr)

[keysersoze123]

At MTC1 Zilla is at 122493/649030 2195879.25. Definitely finishing closer to upper end of my prediction. Let us see where things are in the evening.