The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

LOL.

Minions 2 did $140M 5-days inc Jul 4. I would expect under that for DM4. 

If somehow it does $120M 3 days aka probably $185M 5 days, it would be targeting $500M DOM.

That would make it the favorite to win the summer. I am not buying this plus LOL this is from Quorum. That site is only good to be ridiculed. I think DM4 will open below Minions 2 for sure. 

[dallas]

I still see Bad Boys 4 opening around $50M tbh. Walkups are good for these movies so if presales right now suggest $40M, then $50M is a good bet.

[emoviefan]

13 minutes ago, dallas said:

I still see Bad Boys 4 opening around $50M tbh. Walkups are good for these movies so if presales right now suggest $40M, then $50M is a good bet.

I think 55+ is possible. For  Life was only tracking to do about 35-40 I think and ended up doing 62 for the 3 day and 73 for the 4 day of MLK weekend in 20. The walkups were massive.  

[Landon1195]

Any numbers for Apes on Friday?

[vafrow]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

For long releases of MCU/SW Saga calabier, it usually takes about 6 to 8 days for the initial wave to stop.

 

For instance, here is TROS's first few weeks:

 

The Rise of Skywalker
T-59:	8308
T-58:	1497
T-57	348
T-56	196
T-55	161
T-54	111
T-53	127
T-52	118
T-51	70
T-50	52
T-49	30
T-48	77
T-47	87
T-46	49
T-45	77

 

DIdn't really "bottom out" until D9 or so (T-51) and then would bounce around from 30 to 80 for the next three-plus weeks, with the occasional spike above 90.  Then at T-21, more or less, it started up its acceleration again.

 

Can see similar patterns for MCU long runners.  One of the reasons I'm still posting D-x numbers against various MCU films.

 

Thanks. 

 

The closest I have to a MCU heavy hitter is the Eras Tour, which was at 1% growth by around D4. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23585	24051	466	1.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

37

 

T-21 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	155.85		49	299		0/73	10966/11265	2.65%		3951	11.79%		9.74m
Shaz 2	147.47		23	316		0/93	15224/15540	2.03%		1663	28.02%		5.01m
TLM	47.94		60	972		0/154	21676/22648	4.29%		6561	7.10%		4.94m
Barbie	36.90		92	1263		0/96	11363/12626	10.00%		12077	3.86%		8.34m
Wonka	298.72		18	156		0/113	19128/19284	0.81%		1975	23.59%		10.46m
Aqua 2	160.14		3	291		0/93	15856/16147	1.80%		2629	17.73%		7.21m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     112/10075  [1.11% sold]
Matinee:    41/2674  [1.53% | 8.80% of all tickets sold]
3D:            38/3852  [0.99% | 8.15% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        205/9686  [2.12% | 43.99% of all tickets sold]

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23562	24051	489	2.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

23

 

T-21 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	147.29		33	332		0/74	11116/11448	2.90%		3951	12.38%		9.21m
NOPE	197.18		5	248		0/84	13443/13691	1.81%		3822	12.79%		12.62m
Shaz 2	146.85		17	333		0/109	17360/17693	1.88%		1663	29.40%		4.99m
TLM	47.38		60	1032		0/153	21550/22582	4.57%		6561	7.45%		4.88m
Barbie	36.41		80	1343		0/96	11284/12627	10.64%		12077	4.05%		8.23m
Wonka	291.07		12	168		0/113	19116/19284	0.87%		1975	24.76%		10.19m
Aqua 2	165.20		5	296		0/101	16492/16788	1.76%		2629	18.60%		7.43m
GBFE	197.18		38	248		0/114	18650/18898	1.31%		2197	22.26%		9.27m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     117/10075  [1.16% sold]
Matinee:    41/2674  [1.53% | 8.38% of all tickets sold]
3D:            38/3852  [0.99% | 7.77% of all tickets sold]
PLF:      213/9686  [2.20% | 43.56% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Decided to add Nope to the comp block.  Not because I think it's a particularly good one (the ATP differences alone are a major red flag), but more for pace considerations considering how similar horror and kids animation are when it comes to being backloaded.  The other consideration with Nope is that it was on sale for nearly two weeks longer, so it did have a small amount of extra time to pad some seats sold.  But maybe the errors (ATP vs length of pre-sale) will cancel each other out.  PROBABLY NOT!  But the pace at the very least should be interesting.

 

Speaking of pace, been keeping track of this against Minions 2 and gonna add that within a few days.  Pretty unsuitable right now as the extra week of sales for IO2 is making a mockery of the comp, but so are all of the others.  Not sure exactly which day I'll add it.  Just that it'll be 'soon'.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-63 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	219	27941	31587	3646	11.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

138

 

Day 4 Comps

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.97		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	17.27%		16.19m
L&T	68.91		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	21.50%		19.98m
BP2	86.60		193	4210		0/294	32812/37022	11.37%		16800	21.70%		24.25m
AM3	110.99		227	3285		0/231	29080/32365	10.15%		10475	34.81%		19.42m
GOTG3	148.03		112	2463		0/205	27105/29568	8.33%		10750	33.92%		25.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      739/12927  [5.72% sold]
Matinee:    NOT YET COMPILED
3D:            324/6802  [4.76% | 8.89% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2093/11001  [19.03% | 57.41% of all tickets sold]

----

CM EQUIV SEATS:        120 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV SEATS:    138 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

=====

 

Running late tonight, so nothing else to add, except for @charlie Jatinder:

 

D1:

CM EQUIV SEATS:        2491 seats sold D1 at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV SEATS:    2585 seats sold D1 at equivalent sources of tracking

 

D2:

CM EQUIV SEATS:        381 seats sold D2 at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV SEATS:    409 seats sold D2 at equivalent sources of tracking

 

D3:

CM EQUIV SEATS:        198 seats sold D3 at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV SEATS:    205 seats sold D3 at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-62 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	219	27839	31587	3748	11.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

102

 

Day 5 Comps

	%		Sold Day 5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.99		224	8331		0/329	32585/40916	20.36%		21117	17.75%		16.20m
L&T	67.84		234	5525		0/228	26075/31600	17.48%		16962	22.10%		19.67m
BP2	85.59		169	4379		0/294	32643/37022	11.83%		16800	22.31%		23.97m
AM3	109.56		136	3421		0/235	29108/32529	10.52%		10475	35.78%		19.17m
GOTG3	146.58		94	2557		0/206	27114/29671	8.62%		10750	34.87%		25.65m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      776/12927  [6.00% sold]
Matinee:    NOT YET COMPILED
3D:            333/6802  [4.90% | 8.88% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         2138/11001  [19.43% | 57.04% of all tickets sold]
---

CM EQUIV       98 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    98 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[Grand Cine]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That would make it the favorite to win the summer. I am not buying this plus LOL this is from Quorum. That site is only good to be ridiculed. I think DM4 will open below Minions 2 for sure. 

For comparaison , DM3 , which opened also a Friday and had 4th July on Tuesday , made 99M for 5 Days . I think DM4 will be between this and Minions 2 , around 120-125M 5 Days so around 90M OW

[vafrow]

On 5/20/2024 at 8:22 PM, vafrow said:

 

Inside Out 2, T-24 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 14

New Sales: 4

Growth: 40%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 0/2

Early Evening: 7/7

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 5/6

IMAX: 3/4

VIP: 6/4

 

 Comps

0.933x KFP4 for $3.5M

Zero sales for Garfield at T-26

 

I thought I'd do a quick update while I had some time, as I think the DP&W posts will take up a lot of time.

 

Inside Out 2, T-20 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 22

New Sales since T-24: 8

Growth: 57%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 15

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 1/2

Early Evening: 14/7

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 0/1

Dolby 3D: 12/6

IMAX: 3/4

VIP: 6/4

 

 Comps

1.467x KFP4 for $5.6M

Zero sales for Garfield at T-20

 

It's starting to grow. When the Garfield and IF comps start hitting, it's going to really distort things. Garfield had zero sales until T-18, IF only went on sale around T-18 but didn't have any sales until T-15. It'll be producing comps in the high teens or higher for a bit.

[vafrow]

On 5/19/2024 at 6:46 AM, vafrow said:

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-19 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 17

New Sales: 12

Growth: 240%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.0

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 11/7

Late Evening: 6/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 7/7

IMAX: 6/6

VIP: 4/4

 

T-19 Comps

0.567x KOTPOTA for $2.8M

0.680x GB:FE for $3.2M

 

Average: $3.0M

 

Switched to T minus comps, so it's changed things quite a bit.

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-13 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 32

New Sales since T-19: 15

Growth: 88%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 25/7

Late Evening: 6/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 11/6

VIP: 20/4

 

Comps

0.727x KOTPOTA for $3.6M

0.333x HG:BoSS

0.711x GB:FE for $3.3M

 

Average: $3.5M

 

I still expect this to be more walk up friendly than the comps being used, and should see a gradual rise as the date gets closer.

[John2015]

How many theaters will open "Young Woman and the Sea" on May 31 2024?  Definitely not only in NY/LA theaters,  and there are some TV commercials of the film.

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, John2015 said:

How many theaters will open "Young Woman and the Sea" on May 31 2024?  Definitely not only in NY/LA theaters,  and there are some TV commercials of the film.

It looks like it's getting at least a couple hundred theaters.

[katnisscinnaplex]

37 minutes ago, John2015 said:

How many theaters will open "Young Woman and the Sea" on May 31 2024?  Definitely not only in NY/LA theaters,  and there are some TV commercials of the film.

 

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It looks like it's getting at least a couple hundred theaters.

I'm seeing around 250 with listings so far

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/22/2024 at 9:57 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Furiosa Alamo Drafthouse

T-3 Saturday

313 Showings

5459

+708

42925

ATP:

16.84

0.223

Dune Part 2 T-3

6.40M

Furiosa Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Saturday

312 Showings

9629

+4170

42382

ATP:

16.49

1.191	Furiosa Friday	7.98M
	Adjusted GxK T-0	8.27M
	Adjusted GB Frozen T-0	8.24M
	Adjusted Dune Part 2 T-0	8.23M
	Adjusted Transformers T-0	8.67M

 

On 5/23/2024 at 6:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Furiosa Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Saturday

246 Showings

890

+235

35077

0.327	GB Frozen T-2	5.78M
0.113	Dune Part 2 T-2	3.25M
0.499	Transformers T-2	9.66M
0.398	Fast X T-2	8.95M

Furiosa Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Saturday

242 Showings

1801

+911

34845

1.172	Furiosa Friday	7.85M
	Adjusted GxK T-0	8.51M
	Adjusted GB Frozen T-0	7.17M
	Adjusted Dune Part 2 T-0	7.62M
	Adjusted Transformers T-0	9.71M

 

Comps are adjusted from Friday T-0 numbers, which I got yesterday but just wasn't able to post.

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Bad Boys Ride or Die, T-13 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 32

New Sales since T-19: 15

Growth: 88%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 25/7

Late Evening: 6/7

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 11/6

VIP: 20/4

 

Comps

0.727x KOTPOTA for $3.6M

0.333x HG:BoSS

0.711x GB:FE for $3.3M

 

Average: $3.5M

 

I still expect this to be more walk up friendly than the comps being used, and should see a gradual rise as the date gets closer.

Yep For Life was a walkup monster. It made 73 over the 4 day MLK weekend in 2020 and was only tracking to do about 40-45 I think.

[Flip]

On 5/20/2024 at 11:33 PM, Flip said:

first time trying this

(2 AMC theaters NY/NJ):
 

Deadpool 3 Previews first 14 hours :

 

36 showtimes/442 tix sold

 

Furiosa Previews (T-3) 

 

8 showtimes/159 tix sold

 

Inside Out 2 Previews (T-24)

8 showtimes/59 tix sold

 

Garfield previews (T-3)

 

7 showtimes/51 tix sold

 

*non-PLF

Inside Out 2 (T-19)

8 showtimes/72 tix sold (+13)

 

Deadpool 3 (T-61)

 

30 showtimes/597 tix sold (+155) 

*not sure where six showtimes went.

 

Bad Boys 4 (T-12)

 

11 showtimes/61 tix sold

 

was busy for Garfield and Furiosa previews

[jeffthehat]

Indiana Lite

Furiosa Sat T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
1158	20925	107

Comps

1.14x Furiosa Fri T-0 = $7.7m

0.54x Kingdom Apes T-0 = $10.8m

---

These are the 10 top selling theaters in my Indiana sample. Didn't post but I've been pulling T-0 numbers for Fri, Sat, Sun from this the past few weeks. 

[Flip]

9 minutes ago, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-19)

8 showtimes/72 tix sold (+13)

 

Deadpool 3 (T-61)

 

30 showtimes/597 tix sold (+155) 

*not sure where six showtimes went.

 

Bad Boys 4 (T-12)

 

11 showtimes/61 tix sold

 

was busy for Garfield and Furiosa previews

Also, the Inside Out 2 fan event on the 16th has 43 tickets sold from 2 showtimes, so that might be depressing previews a bit

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/18/2024 at 8:23 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bad Boys 4	T-19	Jax	5	56	0	51	9,816	0.52%
		Phx	6	39	10	52	7,802	0.67%
		Ral	8	44	14	70	6,582	1.06%
	Total		19	139	24	173	24,200	0.71%
Bad Boys 4 (EA)	T-18	Jax	1	1	0	4	198	2.02%

 

Day 2 adjusted comps

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .489x (4.3m)

 - F9 - .521x (3.92m)

 - Furiosa - 1.08x

 - Ghostbusters FE - .77x (3.39m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .407x (3.67m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 1.7x (11.23m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bad Boys 4	T-12	Jax	5	56	75	126	9,816	1.28%
		Phx	6	39	40	92	7,802	1.18%
		Ral	8	44	24	94	6,582	1.43%
	Total		19	139	139	312	24,200	1.29%
Bad Boys 4 (EA)	T-11	Jax	3	3	6	10	855	1.17%

*New sales since T-19

 

T-12 (Total) adjusted comps

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .394x (3.47m)

 - F9 - .458x (3.45m)

 - Furiosa - 1.71x  (5.99m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - .88x (3.89m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .645x (5.82m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - .801x (5.39m)

 - John Wick 4 - .37x (3.3m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/18/2024 at 8:34 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Inside Out 2	T-26	Jax	5	62	2	25	10,727	0.23%
		Phx	6	64	9	43	12,492	0.34%
		Ral	8	73	18	62	9,043	0.69%
	Total		19	199	29	130	32,262	0.40%

 

T-26 comps

 - Super Mario Bros (OD) - .323x (12.27m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .164x (3.06m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.066x (3.3m)

 - Garfield (Total) - 1.566x

 

I've been avoiding posting as to not bring down spirits, but it is what it is.  Early sales just haven't been there lately except for the extreme fans.  Hopefully this continues and they stop with the month+ ticket windows, but who knows.  Much easier to count five seats than 25 I guess.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Inside Out 2	T-19	Jax	6	65	67	67	11,261	0.59%
		Phx	6	64	67	67	12,492	0.54%
		Ral	8	73	102	102	9,043	1.13%
	Total		20	202	236	236	32,796	0.72%

 

T-19 comps

 - Super Mario Bros (OD) - missed

 - Barbie (Total) - .184x (3.45m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.18x (3.66m)

 - Garfield (Total) - 1.919x (3.8m)

 - Minions 2 - 1.439x (14.57m)