The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

These numbers are terrible. if it opens to say 20m OD, that is not good. But that said you dont have any good comps. We dont have too many movies that skip previews and go for OD. Mario is the best comp but we need to get closer to judge pace relative to Mario which was a monster in the final week(only surpassed by Inside Out 2 last week).

Yeah, like you said, no good comps. We all know family movies are all about the final week, the question here is just how much this will accelerate by. It’s tough to get clues as to that but that’s why I pointed out that this was a good update (growing over 50% between T-14 and T-11), mayhaps a positive portend of what’s to come?

Could @Porthos give us a little window into this? I know of your aversion to non-preview tracks, and I can’t recall if you tracked Mario or not, but you’re one of the few of us who was doing this back then, so I thought I’d ask  

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Yeah, like you said, no good comps. We all know family movies are all about the final week, the question here is just how much this will accelerate by. It’s tough to get clues as to that but that’s why I pointed out that this was a good update (growing over 50% between T-14 and T-11), mayhaps a positive portend of what’s to come?

Could @Porthos give us a little window into this? I know of your aversion to non-preview tracks, and I can’t recall if you tracked Mario or not, but you’re one of the few of us who was doing this back then, so I thought I’d ask  

 

I especially have an aversion to all day tracks with monster show counts. 😉 

 

I seem to recall taking a glance on D1 and close to the end.  FWIW, I tend to think SMB had a very strong start (at least it did in Sacramento) and only accelerated from there.  But I also realize soft terms like "very strong" are inherently squishy and subjective.  Either way, I have no hard data except for whatever I might have said in the thread.

 

I will remind though that Minions 2 was looking like a 6m to 8m opener all the way through Sat before release.

 

It... It did not end up as a 7m-ish opener. 😛 

 

FWIW, didn't you track Migration?  I seem to recall that, but maybe only toward the end.  Of course comparing that level of opener also invites all sorts of problems (as seen by IO2 just recently).  Maybe percentage of final gross?

 

When it comes right down to it thanks to the nature of the genre, really can't say much until the final few days of sales, unless one has a lot of similar movies to comp against.  Only so much info one can get out of tea leaf reading, and all that.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-34 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28229	33623	5394	16.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-34 Comp                 TOO EARLY TO TAKE SERIOUSLY EDITION

%

Sold T-34

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

BP2

123.18

169

4379

0/294

32643/37022

11.83%

16800

32.11%

34.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1145/12925  [8.86% sold]
Matinee:    292/4469  [6.53% | 5.41% of all tickets sold]
3D:             573/6800  [8.43% | 10.62% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2822/11535  [24.46% | 52.32% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        38 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    41 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-33 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28181	33625	5444	16.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

50

 

T-33 Comp                 TOO EARLY TO TAKE SERIOUSLY EDITION

%

Sold T-33

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

BP2

119.94

160

4539

0/294

32483/37022

12.26%

16800

32.40%

33.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1153/12925  [8.92% sold]
Matinee:    292/4469  [6.53% | 5.36% of all tickets sold]
3D:             580/6801  [8.53% | 10.65% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2847/11535  [24.68% | 52.30% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        42 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    47 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/21/2024 at 3:16 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-13 Days

 

Wednesday - 811/104881 (408 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 ~ $37M
 

Inside Out 2 - $22.3M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $31.2M

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-11 Days

 

Wednesday - 1011/106126 (408 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 ~ $37M

 

Inside Out 2 - $23M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $27.4M

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-6, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 48

New Sales: 5

Growth: 12%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 38/6

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 15/7

IMAX: 25/5

4DX: 8/2

 

Comps

0.578x KOTPOTA for $2.9M

 0.457x Furiosa for $1.6M

0.356x KFP4 for $1.4M

 

Average: $2.1M

 

Still waiting for something to start moving.

 

Quiet Place Day One, T-5, Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 68

New Sales: 20

Growth: 42%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 44/6

Late Evening: 21/6

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 17/7

IMAX: 31/5

4DX: 20/2

 

Comps

0.680x KOTPOTA for $3.4M

 0.613x Furiosa for $2.1M

0.442x KFP4 for $1.7M

 

Average: $2.5M

 

Nice bump fueled by some smaller group purchases. I'm hoping it's the start of a trend.

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-12 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 112

New Sales: 12

Growth: 12%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 15/8

Early Afternoon: 29/8

Late Afternoon: 15/8

Early Evening: 51/7

Late Evening: 2/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 9/7

Regular 3D: 5/5

Dolby: 73/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 21/10

 

Comps

2.732x Inside Out 2 for $35.5M

2.074x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $10.0M

2.333x GB:FE for $8.6M

4.308x Wonka for $15.1M

28.000x Garfield for $53.2M

14.000x IF for $24.5M

Average: $24.5M

 

It's staying above 10% a day. Remarkable consistency.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-11 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 126

New Sales: 14

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.3

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 23/8

Early Afternoon: 29/8

Late Afternoon: 15/8

Early Evening: 57/7

Late Evening: 2/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 11/7

Regular 3D: 5/5

Dolby: 85/14

Dolby 3D: 4/2

IMAX: 21/10

 

Comps

2.211x Inside Out 2 for $28.7M

2.250x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $10.8M

2.291x GB:FE for $8.5M

4.846x Wonka for $17.0M

31.500x Garfield for $59.9M

15.750x IF for $27.6M

Average: $25.4M

 

It keeps chugging along.

[titanic2187]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 34775/526898 696110.83 2573 shows +2492

Friday - 25125/967597 484581.09 4746 shows +2503

 

Definitely looking like its accelerating for final surge. Based on Inside Out 2 hold this weekend, it will need high 50s OW to win the weekend. I wont rule it out but it will need final week similar to Apes to get there. 

That would mean a prequel spin off without original star attached to it is opening higher than the two original movies. Is that too good to be true? Especially after Furiosa flop. 

[TomThomas]

49 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

That would mean a prequel spin off without original star attached to it is opening higher than the two original movies. Is that too good to be true? Especially after Furiosa flop. 

I think New York City invasion is quite appealing concept that may work in its favour.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

That would mean a prequel spin off without original star attached to it is opening higher than the two original movies. Is that too good to be true? Especially after Furiosa flop. 

COVID was still a pretty significant factor when AQP2 opened. 

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I especially have an aversion to all day tracks with monster show counts. 😉 

 

I seem to recall taking a glance on D1 and close to the end.  FWIW, I tend to think SMB had a very strong start (at least it did in Sacramento) and only accelerated from there.  But I also realize soft terms like "very strong" are inherently squishy and subjective.  Either way, I have no hard data except for whatever I might have said in the thread.

 

I will remind though that Minions 2 was looking like a 6m to 8m opener all the way through Sat before release.

 

It... It did not end up as a 7m-ish opener. 😛 

 

FWIW, didn't you track Migration?  I seem to recall that, but maybe only toward the end.  Of course comparing that level of opener also invites all sorts of problems (as seen by IO2 just recently).  Maybe percentage of final gross?

 

When it comes right down to it thanks to the nature of the genre, really can't say much until the final few days of sales, unless one has a lot of similar movies to comp against.  Only so much info one can get out of tea leaf reading, and all that.

You did track Eras OD but that was weird.

[filmlover]

I'm surprised people doubted that A Quiet Place would be big this whole time, especially following a lack of appealing horror product so far this year. The change to the NYC setting actually feels fresh, and the concept behind these movies remains the main draw, not Krasinski/Blunt.

[Madhuvan]

4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

That would mean a prequel spin off without original star attached to it is opening higher than the two original movies. Is that too good to be true? Especially after Furiosa flop. 

I mean Minions is great example for that. 

[Flopped]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm surprised people doubted that A Quiet Place would be big this whole time, especially following a lack of appealing horror product so far this year. The change to the NYC setting actually feels fresh, and the concept behind these movies remains the main draw, not Krasinski/Blunt.

It's just that the trailer sucks and it's so overplayed every.single.time. you go to the movies. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Flopped said:

It's just that the trailer sucks and it's so overplayed every.single.time. you go to the movies. 

That's just Paramount having nothing else to attach (besides Transformers) at the moment for you.

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That's just Paramount having nothing else to attach (besides Transformers) at the moment for you.

That's going to change this week right Paramount? Cough Gladiator 2 Cough.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

That's going to change this week right Paramount? Cough Gladiator 2 Cough.

Smile 2 is their obvious A Quiet Place attachment.

[AniNate]

Hope it's both, just so people will shut up in the Gladiator 2 thread about bad marketing. It is the only fall tentpole that doesn't have a trailer yet so it's beginning to stick out like a sore thumb.

 

 

Edited June 23 by AniNate

[excel1]

18 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 4135/66111 89428.73 291 shows +421

Previews(7/18) - 9772/548350 190707.74 2688 shows +812

 

Slightly under 4 days of presales. Still terrible. 

 

ugh

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

You did track Eras OD but that was weird.

 

"all day" track. 🙂 

 

(even with the last minute expansion of showtimes, it was a preview day in all but name only)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/22/2024 at 8:53 AM, Inceptionzq said:

CANADAMTC1 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-34 Thursday: 25079/207557

T-35 Friday: 15426/271893

T-36 Saturday: 11021/284179

T-37 Sunday: 3550/282093

 

Yesterday's numbers again

CANADAMTC1 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-33 Thursday: 25390/207557

T-34 Friday: 15720/271893

T-35 Saturday: 11326/284179

T-36 Sunday: 3638/282093