The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Unfitclock]

Wait a minute we went from the meg 2 could be a hit to it’s gonna bomb now how did that happen so fast

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

Wait a minute we went from the meg 2 could be a hit to it’s gonna bomb now how did that happen so fast

I kind of feel like everybody was just being funny and nobody really thought it was going to be that big. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I kind of feel like everybody was just being funny and nobody really thought it was going to be that big. 

Nope. @across the Jat verse said 50m OW possible for Meg 2. I wont rule it out at all. I was just joking based on 1 bad data from Orlando. Its not a disney movie or atypical blockbuster. So that is a market it could over index. Also it could be a movie that will have late sales rather than early presales. We have to wait and see. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nope. @across the Jat verse said 50m OW possible for Meg 2. I wont rule it out at all. I was just joking based on 1 bad data from Orlando. Its not a disney movie or atypical blockbuster. So that is a market it could over index. Also it could be a movie that will have late sales rather than early presales. We have to wait and see. 

I said that?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, across the Jat verse said:

I said that?

I thought so. May be I am wrong 🙂 

 

Anyway I have no clue what this movie will do. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I thought so. May be I am wrong 🙂 

 

Anyway I have no clue what this movie will do. 

Same. Lets see how the sales are.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, across the Jat verse said:

Same. Lets see how the sales are.

May be @ZackM can look at Meg 2/Turtles 2 combo. I am just looking at Haunted Mansion today. Cant believe that movie is taking away PLF from Barbie !!!

[PrinceRico]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

May be @ZackM can look at Meg 2/Turtles 2 combo. I am just looking at Haunted Mansion today. Cant believe that movie is taking away PLF from Barbie !!!

I can. Movie looks made for with its visuals.

[charlie Jatinder]

34 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

May be @ZackM can look at Meg 2/Turtles 2 combo. I am just looking at Haunted Mansion today. Cant believe that movie is taking away PLF from Barbie !!!

Sales are good for me. On high end something like $40M OW can happen.

[keysersoze123]

Haunted Mansion MTC1

Wednesday - 13843/21840 296328.07 115 shows

Previews - 25182/351464 415940.14 2294 shows(+14756 in 9 days)

Friday - 25291/578338 396482.21 3831 shows

 

Its not bad. But for a movie taking away PLF screens from Barbie, its a huge downer. I am seeing somewhere in low 3s for just thursday and around 350K for wednesday(if its just MTC1). Based on thu/fri ratio I am not seeing a huge multi for sure. 

 

Anyway I dont have anything like daily pace and so I could be off. 

[tonytr87]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Haunted Mansion MTC1

Wednesday - 13843/21840 296328.07 115 shows

Previews - 25182/351464 415940.14 2294 shows(+14756 in 9 days)

Friday - 25291/578338 396482.21 3831 shows

 

Its not bad. But for a movie taking away PLF screens from Barbie, its a huge downer. I am seeing somewhere in low 3s for just thursday and around 350K for wednesday(if its just MTC1). Based on thu/fri ratio I am not seeing a huge multi for sure. 

 

Anyway I dont have anything like daily pace and so I could be off. 

 

Why the hell would theaters take PLFs from Barbie? 

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Why the hell would theaters take PLFs from Barbie? 

 

Probably something they wish they could back out of, but can't. Disney usually asks for the biggest screens for their releases, this PLF decision was likely made long in advance. Too late now to make significant changes if contracts were signed, I suppose.

[filmlover]

Haunted Mansion sales are looking a bit backloaded near me for the weekend. Guessing walk-up business will be solid.

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Why the hell would theaters take PLFs from Barbie? 

 

Contractual obligations. Disney is involved here, so we can guess that they got some very strong contractual language in favor of Haunted Mansion. 

[filmlover]

The PLF logjam for the next few weeks is gonna assure Barbenheimer will have to work without those screens when Haunted Mansion will be followed by both TMNT and Meg 2 splitting the screen the following weekend with Gran Turismo after that and Blue Beetle the week after that. Maybe they can reclaim those screens August 25 when nothing is coming out (and a new movie set to play on those screens almost each week from Labor Day weekend until the early December dead zone) if Blue Beetle ends up fulfilling the "pathetic flop" prophecy.

[Hilts]

Seeing Blue Beetle showtimes starting to pop up (looking like 2pm start) so imagine tix will be available before long, sometime next week?

 

Maybe @datpepper can narrow down 🙂

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Porthos]

On 7/21/2023 at 12:18 AM, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-12]

515/12025 (4.28% sold) [+44 tickets]

 

0.45335x MI7 at T-12           [3.99m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.28429x  GBA at T-12          [5.78m]

0.89410x Sonic 2 at T-12      [5.59m]

1.17045x Shazam 2 at T-12   [3.98m]

0.56223x RotB at T-12          [4.95m]

 

 

Gonna use @across the Jat verse's unofficial number for MI7 [8.8m] here since TMNT3 is also allowing Discount Tuesday pricing at various theaters, and that's gonna be far better than the 7m number that was given.

 

Also gonna use, for now, a few other comps but with a big fat honking warning about DT.  At the very least they'll be good for size comparisons.  If I care enough in the coming days, maybe I'll try to figure out an ad-hoc adjustment based on Sacto's MI7 numbers and Jat's breakdown.  Or possibly not, as it is a Q&D.

 

Next update probs around T-7 or so.

 

NB:  For those who care, the various EA showings account for 279 tickets sold, or 54.17% of all tickets sold so far.

 

Quick and Dirty Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Sacto Report [T-7]

850/12025 (7.07% sold) [+36 tickets]

 

0.52599x MI7 at T-7                      [4.63m]

0.45484x MI7 TUE ONLY at T-7   [3.18m]

 

***NO ADJUSTMENT FOR DISCOUNT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COMPS***:

1.15489x  GBA at T-7           [5.20m]

0.92998x Sonic 2 at T-7      [5.81m]

1.70000x Shazam 2 at T-7   [5.78m]

0.67514x RotB at T-7           [5.94m]

 

===========

 

Shortly after I made an earlier post today about MI7 and TMNT both having Discount Tuesday sales, it occurred to me that Paramount might try a similar stunt with reporting a Tuesday Only preview number and try to add various EA sales to other days.  So in case of those shenanigans, I'm adding a TUESDAY ONLY COMP off of the official number given by Paramount. 

 

But I'm also keeping the comp of what we think the full total of previews was, just in case Paramount thinks consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds and reports all of the EA + Tuesday sales this go around.

 

Aside from that, nothing much else to add except to say the next update will be at T-3 (Sat).

[Porthos]

On 7/25/2023 at 12:10 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-3]

919/9852 (9.33% sold) [+120 tickets]

 

0.78080x GBA at T-3             [3.51m]

0.56380x Sonic 2 at T-3       [3.52m]

0.48241x Minions 2at T-3     [5.19m]

1.31662x Shazam 2 at T-3    [4.48m]

0.25982x TLM at T-3            [2.68m]

1.72744x Elemental at T-3    [4.15m]

 

===

 

Shazam 2 comp rose quite a bit, but the Elemental comp dipped a tad.  Again, I never make promises out of Sacramento concerning Quick and Dirty reports, but kinda looking like 4m to 4.5m to me.  Maybe 3.5m to 5m if we want to open up the range.  But no real sign of a breakout locally, mini- or otherwise.

 

(theater screen expansion is also hella held back for a T-3 Monday, with only a couple of theaters expanding by one or two screens — undoubtedly thanks to Barbenheimer)

 

 

Quick and Dirty Haunted Mansion Sacto Report [T-2]

1093/11249 (9.72% sold) [+174 tickets]

 

0.72384x GBA at T-2             [3.26m]

0.52147x Sonic 2 at T-2         [3.26m]

0.39978x Minions 2 at T-2    [4.30m]

1.35105x Shazam 2 at T-2    [4.59m]

0.27518x TLM at T-2            [2.83m]

1.62407x Elemental at T-2    [3.90m]

 

===

 

All comps except for Shazam 2 and TLM falling is not exactly a great sign at T-2.  TLM is expected to rise at this stage (and really, a useless comp in this market when it comes right down to it).  Shazam 2 actually rising a tiny bit is noteworthy.  However, so is Elemental comp falling.

 

Don't want to read too much into it, but what I can read into it is it still isn't having any sort of push locally.

[SpiderByte]

It'd be funny if Oppenheimer and Barbie wound up with super long Avatar runs just because the strike delays literally everything else for the rest of the year.

Edited July 26, 2023 by SpiderByte