The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Let us give it a shot

Wednesday - 25m // I am figuring out 95K/150/375k finish at MTC1 over next 3 days. 

Thu - 17m // its pace over past 24 hrs is 9kish. So 60% of OD and pacing and overall still below half of OD. with similar walkups it can get to that. 

Fri - 23m

Sat - 28m

Sunday - 22m

 

115m over 5 days. But looking beyond OD, its not that much about presales as they are well below OD and we have to see if WOM would be good enough to pull the GA over the 5 day weekend. 

I think Sat will be flat/drop a bit. So from 23 FRI should be 105.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Sat will be flat/drop a bit. So from 23 FRI should be 105.

You are right. My saturday increase is bit too high. That said yesterday when I checked saturday PS was not that far behind and it has additional day of PS. So could go up a bit. Otherwise you could be right. Its also possible all these numbers go up a bit if momentum is there. We will know based on Wednesday walkups. 

[Rorschach]

Despicable Me 4 (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Wednesday: 374/3,170 (11.8% sold)

6 IMAX showings: 127/2,328 (5.5% sold)

1 3D showing: 19/78 (24.4% sold)

11 2D showings: 228/764 (29.8% sold)

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2 (previews): $16.54 mil

Inside Out 2 (Friday): $24.06 mil

Average: $20.3 mil

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-2):

 

Damn, this one kicked my butt. I now understand @Porthos's resistance to tracking Opening Days.

 

 

"Ohh, it's just a harmless little track, isn't it?"

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Maxxxine MTC1

Early shows(7/3) - 11040/44897 167095.94 395 shows +1966

Friday  - 13295/169049 188136.23 1771 shows +2455

 

I think its doing really well at this point. Unless the walkups are absolute terrible, it should hit double digits. May be even low teens?

Oooh, Maxxxine opening to more than the openings of X & Pearl combined would be something. 
 

Especially with 0 PLF’s and fighting for any screens with Inside Out, Day One and Minions. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27777	33622	5845	17.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

73

 

T-25 Comp

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	70.16		224	8331		0/329	32585/40916	20.36%		21117	27.68%		25.26m
BP2	104.02		121	5619		1/294	31400/37019	15.18%		16800	34.79%		29.13m
AM3	161.24		97	3625		0/235	28901/32526	11.14%		10475	55.80%		28.22m
GOTG3	217.45		43	2688		0/206	26983/29671	9.06%		10750	54.37%		38.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1289/12925  [9.97% sold]
Matinee:    341/4469  [7.63% | 5.83% of all tickets sold]
3D:            653/6801  [9.60% | 11.17% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       3016/11532  [26.15% | 51.60% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        69 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    69 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27693	33622	5929	17.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

84

 

T-24 Comp

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.07		253	8584		0/329	32332/40916	20.98%		21117	28.08%		24.87m
L&T	142.49		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	34.95%		41.32m
BP2	103.87		89	5708		1/294	31311/37019	15.42%		16800	35.29%		29.08m
AM3	159.47		93	3718		0/235	28808/32526	11.43%		10475	56.60%		27.91m
GOTG3	212.13		107	2795		0/206	26876/29671	9.42%		10750	55.15%		37.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1319/12925  [10.21% sold]
Matinee:    357/4469  [7.99% | 6.02% of all tickets sold]
3D:             660/6801  [9.70% | 11.13% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3041/11532  [26.37% | 51.29% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        75 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    80 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

====

 

Pace looks to be picking up slightly.

[vafrow]

On 7/1/2024 at 6:55 AM, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-3 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 506

New Sales: 81

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 61

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 8.3

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 87/13

Early Afternoon: 114/13

Late Afternoon: 87/13

Early Evening: 201/12

Late Evening: 17

/11

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 61/17

Regular 3D: 17/11

Dolby: 330/17

Dolby 3D: 14/3

IMAX: 66/10

4DX: 10/3

 

Comps

2.556x Inside Out 2 for $33.2M

1.775x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $8.5M

5.685x GB:FE for $21.0M

5.622x Wonka for $19.7M

26.332x IF for $46.6M

Average: $25.8M

 

It continues to slip. This has had the opposite of the sales path that I expected. It's still pacing to do well, but I associate this franchise with slower starts with acceleration at the end. Growth rates have been dropping though.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-2 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 700

New Sales: 194

Growth: 38%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 61

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 113/13

Early Afternoon: 136/13

Late Afternoon: 143/13

Early Evening: 275/12

Late Evening: 33/11

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 106/17

Regular 3D: 39/11

Dolby: 442/17

Dolby 3D: 22/3

IMAX: 81/10

4DX: 10/3

 

Comps

3.111x Inside Out 2 for $40.4M

2.108x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $10.1M

7.071x GB:FE for $26.2M

5.822x Wonka for $20.6M

36.842x IF for $64.5M

Average: $32.4M

 

This was the big growth day I was waiting for 

 It's made up for what it's slipped in recent days against comps.

Edited July 3 by vafrow

[KnightofNight237]

Very positive first Reactions to 30 minutes of Deadpool and Wolverine footage from the fan event in Shanghai today, next fan event on july 4 in Seoul then Germany, then UK July 10: 

 

"I felt that it was very good. It was a combination of the feeling of Avengers 4 and the nonsense of Deadpool. Movie fans were happy, but comic fans would be even happier. I won’t talk about the Fox jokes that everyone can get. I will talk about the parts of the comics that excited me."

 

"If, if, the whole film maintains this level, as a horizontal comparison, this film is better than Avengers 4"

 

"#Deadpool and Wolverine# had a half-hour preview, and the density of jokes was too high. Deadpool really is the savior of Marvel this time (literally)"

 

"After watching the 37-minute feature film, my god—————it’s so good, so good!!! Huge amount of information!! I must go to the premiere to watch the whole film"

 

"#Deadpool vs Wolverine# The advance screening was so exciting! The chemistry between Deadpool and Wolverine was so strong, and Marvel is getting more and more open to joking!! The 30-minute clip alone was already very exciting, and I am looking forward to going to the cinema to watch it as soon as it is officially released !"

 

"The movie retains the original flavor of the first two "Deadpool" movies, with the slapstick gags, blood-splattering fights (yes, the blood is all retained), and the dialogues that break the fourth wall. The TVA setting cleverly incorporates the story of Deadpool into the Marvel Cinematic Universe. During the main creators' interactive session, Ryan also said that he was very happy that the movie was accepted in China in this way.

This half an hour is a very good start, and I am looking forward to the plot later. (There are also several Disney jokes in this half an hour.) Director Shawn Levy (director of "Player") said that there are even bigger surprises in the feature film later. If you are over 18 years old, you can go to the cinema on July 26 without any worries!" 

 

Via: Weibo - https://s.weibo.com/weibo?q=%23死侍与金刚狼%23

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Any date for when Trap starts?

[KnightofNight237]

1 hour ago, KnightofNight237 said:

Very positive first Reactions to 30 minutes of Deadpool and Wolverine footage from the fan event in Shanghai today, next fan event on july 4 in Seoul then Germany, then UK July 10: 

 

"I felt that it was very good. It was a combination of the feeling of Avengers 4 and the nonsense of Deadpool. Movie fans were happy, but comic fans would be even happier. I won’t talk about the Fox jokes that everyone can get. I will talk about the parts of the comics that excited me."

 

"If, if, the whole film maintains this level, as a horizontal comparison, this film is better than Avengers 4"

 

"#Deadpool and Wolverine# had a half-hour preview, and the density of jokes was too high. Deadpool really is the savior of Marvel this time (literally)"

 

"After watching the 37-minute feature film, my god—————it’s so good, so good!!! Huge amount of information!! I must go to the premiere to watch the whole film"

 

"#Deadpool vs Wolverine# The advance screening was so exciting! The chemistry between Deadpool and Wolverine was so strong, and Marvel is getting more and more open to joking!! The 30-minute clip alone was already very exciting, and I am looking forward to going to the cinema to watch it as soon as it is officially released !"

 

"The movie retains the original flavor of the first two "Deadpool" movies, with the slapstick gags, blood-splattering fights (yes, the blood is all retained), and the dialogues that break the fourth wall. The TVA setting cleverly incorporates the story of Deadpool into the Marvel Cinematic Universe. During the main creators' interactive session, Ryan also said that he was very happy that the movie was accepted in China in this way.

This half an hour is a very good start, and I am looking forward to the plot later. (There are also several Disney jokes in this half an hour.) Director Shawn Levy (director of "Player") said that there are even bigger surprises in the feature film later. If you are over 18 years old, you can go to the cinema on July 26 without any worries!" 

 

Via: Weibo - https://s.weibo.com/weibo?q=%23死侍与金刚狼%23

I wonder how much of an effect WOM from these Fan Events worldwide has on pre-sales if any, next ones are: 

Seoul - July 4

Berlin - July 7

London - July 10

And then press is getting to see the footage that week too

 

Have these events had any significant effect on pre-sales previously?

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Despicable Me 4 (OD)	T-2	Jax	5	100	1,067	1,067	16,820	6.34%
		Phx	7	98	722	722	17,009	4.24%
		Ral	8	147	1,161	1,161	19,929	5.83%
	Total		20	345	2,950	2,950	53,758	5.49%

 

T-2 adjusted comps

 - Spider-Verse 2 - .732x (12.95m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - 1.25x (12.91m)

 - Minions 2 - 2.54x (27.94m)

 - Sonic 2 - 2.75x (16.84m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Despicable Me 4 (OD)	T-1	Jax	5	109	382	1,449	18,204	7.96%
		Phx	7	120	473	1,195	18,659	6.40%
		Ral	8	156	442	1,603	20,633	7.77%
	Total		20	385	1,297	4,247	57,496	7.39%

 

T-1 adjusted comps

 - Spider-Verse 2 - .845x (14.95m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - 1.52x (15.74m)

 - Minions 2 - 2.47x (27.16m)

 - Sonic 2 - 3.03x (18.56m)

 - Space Jam (OD) - 1.94x (32.39m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - 5.85x (24m)

 

I didn't track Mario consistently, but OD morning I counted 10,816 for these markets.  Based on T-1 growth comps, I'm expecting around a 75% growth today.  Here's where that would put final comps:

 

 - Spider-Verse 2 - 1.03x (18.14m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - 1.89x (19.51m)

 - Minions 2 - 2.5x (27.51m)

 - Sonic 2 - 4.24x (25.94m)

 - Space Jam (OD) - 1.68x (27.94m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - 6.88x (28.22m)

 - Super Mario (OD) - .687x (26.14m)

 

Using that hypothetical, I'd predict around a 26.5m OD.  I'm not sure if I'll have time to pull numbers in the morning so this may be my final prediction.

[thajdikt]

10 minutes ago, KnightofNight237 said:

I wonder how much of an effect WOM from these Fan Events worldwide has on pre-sales if any, next ones are: 

Seoul - July 4

Berlin - July 7

London - July 10

And then press is getting to see the footage that week too

 

Have these events had any significant effect on pre-sales previously?

Probably more locally in those countries if any at all

[filmlover]

Fly Me to the Moon was the surprise screening last night for those tracking those things.

[Hiccup23]

Alamo Drafthouse Chicago

 

MaXXXine	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Wednesday EA	65	65	100.0%
Friday	224	597	37.5%
Saturday	128	597	21.4%
Sunday	100	597	16.8%
Longlegs	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	107	204	52.5%
Friday	78	204	38.2%
Saturday	67	204	32.8%
Sunday	27	204	13.2%

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota EA ONLY:

 

Maxxxine (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Wednesday July 3 EA: 17 theaters	18	259	259	1646	15.74

 

Comps:

0.51x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes EA: $810k

0.82x Fall Guy EA: $660k

0.8x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare EA: $480k

0.37x MI7 EA: $740k

 

Average: $670k

 

I tracked this last night as well, was going to do Maxxxine Opening Day but it ended up being too late. I'll start tracking that tomorrow, and give an EA T-1 Hour update as well, but this is honestly doing pretty good! NO PLFs for this so the ATP should bring the average down a little bit, maybe something like $500-600k

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited July 2 by kayumanggi

[AniNate]

'Despicable Me 4' Eyes Global $200M by Sunday: July 4th Box Office (deadline.com)

[Kon]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Fly Me to the Moon was the surprise screening last night for those tracking those things.

What was the surprise?

[Unfitclock]

i don’t understand I looked in past years and the Fourth of July has always given movies a boost now they’re expected to take a big hit on Fourth of July I’m really confused on this 

[Insomnia]

5 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

i don’t understand I looked in past years and the Fourth of July has always given movies a boost now they’re expected to take a big hit on Fourth of July I’m really confused on this 

The day itself can depress grosses, especially for openers, but the general holiday frame around this day is lucrative.