The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, Kon said:

What was the surprise?

Theaters have at least one surprise screening a month for a new movie but keep it mostly under the wraps beyond a few clues (a couple of weeks ago it was The Bikeriders). Back when they started doing them about two years ago they would keep the movie a total secret but now they offer clues like the MPA rating and runtime to let people have an idea what movie it is to avoid people walking out after the movie starts feeling they've been conned into seeing a film they have no interest in (which there were a lot of reports of on social media at the first screening, which was for that failed Oscar bait Zac Efron/Peter Farrelly movie).

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

So here the promised details: 

MaXXXine, counted yesterday for Friday, had 580 sold tickets with shows in 6 theaters (no shows so far in the small AMC in Texas). Best sales in the AMC in LA (273) followed by the AMC in San Francisco (166) and that one in Miami (50).

But solid business in every region. 

 

Comps (always counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): X had 50 sold tickets in 6 or 7 theaters (?), 

Pearl had 98 sold tickets in 6 theaters, 

The Invitation had 87, 

Malignant had 100, 

Scream VI had 717,

Halloween Kills had 750,

Halloween Ends had 822,

and Evil Dead Rise had 455 sold tickets. 

 

No average number today because that would create too high expectations. 

You can see that Pearl had twice as many sold tickets but it still had a worse OW than X. So if MaXXXine would have ~ 200 sold tickets that wouldn't be too impressive. But nearly 600 tickets IMO are.

Before I exaggerate let's see how big the jump till tomorrow is (but from my personal feelings it will look good). 

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 07:18 PM by el sid

[Austin]

2 hours ago, Unfitclock said:

i don’t understand I looked in past years and the Fourth of July has always given movies a boost now they’re expected to take a big hit on Fourth of July I’m really confused on this 

People doing family and friends stuff more now? Idk really.

 

Edit: looks like it was answered already

Edited Tuesday at 07:43 PM by Austin

[Unfitclock]

@Austin yea but I looked back at the last couple years and 2019 where it was on a Thursday and most movies increased or had a singled percentage drop

[kayumanggi]

 

[Tinalera]

Deadpool Wolverine 

Thurs July 25 and Fri July 26 (t-24)

Toronto and Montreal; Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent	Added shows
Toronto	Thurs	4	41	2629	6060	8689	0.3025	2
	Fri	4	59	1430	9471	10901	0.1311	7
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Montreal	Thurs	4	33	1348	6118	7466	0.1805	6
	Fri	4	40	877	8964	9841	0.0891	1

 

Slow Steady growth still. Montreal esp showing some more life, so its gaining nicely there.

[keysersoze123]

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-2) - 95075/1248667 1520952.78 6923 shows +28142

Midnight Shows - 1275/13946 28608.23 77 shows +359

 

It did hit the benchmark I expected earlier today(95k). Very good day as expected. Tomorrow I expect it to hit 150k ish.  

DM4 OD sales just under 121K. Not sure it has the pace to get to 150K. it might just fall short. We have to see how the walkups go. I am expecting 350-375K. Since its full day and I expect this movie to under index compared to most movies that should be sufficient for mid 20s OD. Could hit even with 27-28m. 

 

2nd PS is at 48178/1218228 687839.70 couple of hours ago. Its less than half and sold under 14K tickets past day. So pace is also less than half. I expect the day to be driven by walkups but 2nd day will drop quite a bit from OD BO. Could even be bigger than what I guess yesterday. Especially if OD over perform. 

 

So this is likely to be more front loaded in relation to OD than what Mario or IO2 was. 

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Probably more locally in those countries if any at all

If there is huge chatter in social media, it will have some impact on Presales. @Porthos is seeing some spike. We have to see if its due to regular ramp up as we get close to release or due to these one off  events. Let us see if there is another spike today. 

[ringedmortality]

Anyone know why Maxxxine isn't opening up over the five day weekend. I don't even see tickets available for Thursday.

[Ledmonkey96]

15 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Anyone know why Maxxxine isn't opening up over the five day weekend. I don't even see tickets available for Thursday.

Local theater near me is

[VanillaSkies]

48 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Anyone know why Maxxxine isn't opening up over the five day weekend. I don't even see tickets available for Thursday.

Its release is just all over the place. Some Monday shows some places, Wednesday EA some places, Thursday previews in Canada (and apparently a few other chains) and then full open Friday. 

[Porthos]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If there is huge chatter in social media, it will have some impact on Presales. @Porthos is seeing some spike. We have to see if its due to regular ramp up as we get close to release or due to these one off  events. Let us see if there is another spike today. 

 

I'd call it more of a bump than a spike, but sure, agree broadly with the sentiment.

[abracadabra1998]

18 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	353	1149	3012	53509	5.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1076	334	35.72
MTC1:		844	301	28.02
Other chains:		2168	848	71.98

 

Comps (previews):

1.76x Inside Out 2: $22.93 Million

4.2x Kung Fu Panda 4: $15.95 Million (17 theaters)

9.05x Migration: $13.58 Million (17 theaters)

 

Comps (Opening Day):

Paw Patrol The Mighty Movie (FRI): Missed

2.87x Madame Web (WED): $17.35 Million

1.07x Bob Marley (WED): $14.93 Million

 

Damn, this one kicked my butt. I now understand @Porthos's resistance to tracking Opening Days. Anyways, incredibly jumps and final week paces. Pretty sure I won't be able to update this tomorrow, but I should have a T-1 Hour update in me

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	410	1108	4120	58506	7.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1530	454	37.14
MTC1:		1167	323	28.33
Other chains:		2953	785	71.67

 

Comps (previews):

Inside Out 2: Missed

17.17x Garfield: $33.04 Million

12.83x IF: $22.45 Million

4.24x Kung Fu Panda 4: $16.09 Million (17 theaters)

10.24x Migration: $15.36 Million (17 theaters)

 

Comps (Opening Day):

3.05x Madame Web (WED): $18.43 Million

1.1x Bob Marley (WED): $15.36 Million

 

My comps are pretty useless here, but I do want to point out that this is by far the strongest "ratio" I have tracked for Twin cities metro area theaters to outstate Minnesota (you can see that in the IF + Garfield comps versus the KFP4 and Migration ones). Really sucks I couldn't get numbers for IO2 for T-1. Don't really feel comfortable throwing out a prediction here, this track is more for future comps. Likely will not have T-1 Hour numbers after all, but we shall see.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/30/2024 at 8:36 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-25) - 196432/1279406 3619066.60 7858 shows +3924 

Friday - 92197/1487065 1749004.06 8282 shows // +4847 in 4 plus days of PS

 

It has definitely bottomed and slightly on the up side at the moment. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews (T-23) - 200190/1281668 3684190.08 7874 shows // +1837 over past 2 days

 

I think this is the new level as we are approaching final 3 weeks. Thor was at 247907 at T-7. Of course there is inflation. But ATP will keep going down as it sells more as most tickets are standard. So we have to do the T-7 comps. That would anyway be my final update and so that is where I am looking at for now 🙂

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/28/2024 at 5:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-27 Thursday: 26796/207530

T-28 Friday: 17165/273353

T-29 Saturday: 12601/286142

T-30 Sunday: 4110/284048

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine [+4 days of sales]

T-23 Thursday: 28240/207530

T-24 Friday: 18608/273353

T-25 Saturday: 13842/286142

T-26 Sunday: 4648/284048

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/28/2024 at 5:20 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Despicable Me 4

T-5 Wednesday: 4879/374081

T-6 Thursday: 1614/375368

T-7 Friday: 1507/233752

T-8 Saturday: 1977/236849

MTC4 Despicable Me 4 [+4 days of sales]

T-1 Wednesday: 19244/373956

T-2 Thursday: 5153/375610

T-3 Friday: 3873/262988

T-4 Saturday: 4673/264834

[abracadabra1998]

8 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota EA ONLY:

 

Maxxxine (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Wednesday July 3 EA: 17 theaters	18	259	259	1646	15.74

 

Comps:

0.51x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes EA: $810k

0.82x Fall Guy EA: $660k

0.8x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare EA: $480k

0.37x MI7 EA: $740k

 

Average: $670k

 

I tracked this last night as well, was going to do Maxxxine Opening Day but it ended up being too late. I'll start tracking that tomorrow, and give an EA T-1 Hour update as well, but this is honestly doing pretty good! NO PLFs for this so the ATP should bring the average down a little bit, maybe something like $500-600k

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Maxxxine (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Friday: 22 theaters	116	341	341	9080	3.76
Wednesday July 3 EA: 17 theaters	19	43	302	1695	17.82
TOTALS:	135	384	643	10775	5.97

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		235	235	68.91
Other chains:		106	106	31.09

 

Friday Comps:

4.87x The Strangers Chapter 1: $5.85 Million

3.31x Abigail: $3.31 Million

6.33x Immaculate: $3.48 Million

3.01x Thanksgiving: $3.01 Million

 

Average: $3.91 Million

 

EA Comps:

0.51x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes EA: $820k

0.82x Fall Guy EA: $655k

1.09x Challengers EA: $600k

0.82x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare EA: $495k

0.35x MI7 EA: $705k

 

Average: $655k

 

EA + Friday Comp:

4.28x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $5.33 Million

 

As always, I am comparing Opening Day to previews, which is less than ideal; there are a lot more showtimes, and a better walk-up ratio since it's a Friday. So I expect Friday to be quite a bit better than that average shows.

 

[keysersoze123]

On 7/1/2024 at 3:57 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Maxxxine MTC1

Early shows(7/3) - 11040/44897 167095.94 395 shows +1966

Friday  - 13295/169049 188136.23 1771 shows +2455

 

I think its doing really well at this point. Unless the walkups are absolute terrible, it should hit double digits. May be even low teens?

Maxxxine MTC1

Early shows(7/3) - 13231/47221 199564.51 419 shows +2191

Friday - 16994/211681 239572.96 2219 shows +3699

 

Another good day for this movie. Probably looking at different early shows across banners it should do 500K in early shows(I am told Canada have thursday shows but not sure how well it will do there) and I am thinking 4m+ friday.