The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[SaltyPistola]

Any tracking for Alien yet?

[vafrow]

23 minutes ago, SaltyPistola said:

Any tracking for Alien yet?

 

I didn't set up a formal track for it because I've been pretty busy and didn't want to take anything else on until Deadpool finishes.

 

Plus, it's only on 3 of 5 screens in my catchment area, so my expectations were low. But a quick count has it at 15 tickets sold, which is ahead of where A Quiet Place Day One was after the first couple of days. Also on par with KOTPOTA. Furiosa would have been an interesting comp, but that was a short ticket window.

 

Overall, a lot better than I would have thought. This is still the hardcore base, so who knows if it translates to more general audiences as it gets closer, but it's a good sign for now.

[AniNate]

I remember Furiosa was looking pretty good from the initial few days so definitely wary of reading anything into Alien.

 

Gonna be very interesting to see how Twisters performs. Looking like a $100mil opening from the theaters I'm tracking but apparently it's selling scraps elsewhere. This will be a test of just how well flyover country can carry a $200 mil tentpole.

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

Twisters T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
1270	27363	152

TC=28, pulled 12PM EST

Comps

0.54x Dune 2 T-3 = $5.4m

1.68x Furiosa T-3 = $5.9m

0.71x Godzilla x Kong NE T-3 = $7.1m

1.67x Bad Boys 4 T-3 = $9.3m

 

AVG = $7.14m

[AniNate]

Comparing to Apes back in May at the four day mark, Twisters' Thursday/Fri is pacing 65% ahead at Canton and that doesn't include the Wednesday EA sales.

[filmlover]

It Ends with Us showtimes are starting to appear, will be having Early Access shows that Wednesday night and otherwise starting at 2:00 that Thursday.

 

Trap showtimes are also starting to appear and looks like it's starting at 3:00 that Thursday.

[VanillaSkies]

They really do love to make tracking hard these days with the title changes for early shows. 
 

Twisters is having both an early access on Wednesday, plus an IMAX Q&A exclusive on Wednesday, both titled separately. If customers are searching by title on say, AMC’s website, they might not even see these shows appear.
 

It’s getting a little silly. Or is it just me that thinks this?

[AniNate]

Crocker Park's screenings aren't as filled up as I'd like them to be. Wouldn't be surprised if that confusion is a factor in the EA IMAX screening being low.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

They really do love to make tracking hard these days with the title changes for early shows. 
 

Twisters is having both an early access on Wednesday, plus an IMAX Q&A exclusive on Wednesday, both titled separately. If customers are searching by title on say, AMC’s website, they might not even see these shows appear.
 

It’s getting a little silly. Or is it just me that thinks this?

Good catch. That was not part of my tracking for sure. Another 102 shows for wednesday. But if its just 1 TC, it may not matter that much. 

 

Edit: Sold 5040 tickets across 102 shows (tad above 115K). 

Edited July 15 by keysersoze123

[excel1]

I think today was actually a terrible day for Trump. The horrible VP pick and classified documents issue are dominating the press, I think we will all be shocked by quickly the assassination story goes away.

[filmlover]

@excel1 entirely wrong thread and section 

 

[excel1]

7 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I think today was actually a terrible day for Trump. The horrible VP pick and classified documents issue are dominating the press, I think we will all be shocked by quickly the assassination story goes away.

 

LOL oops

[Poseidon]

7 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

That Australia 2.5m is meh no doubt but considering Apes and the Rock' San Andreas also opened to range (2.6m), maybe that is still hope this can do 50m+?

 

Oh, don't get me wrong, $50m should be a very safe bet at this point. It's just the breakout to 75m that doesn't look likely. 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

They really do love to make tracking hard these days with the title changes for early shows. 
 

Twisters is having both an early access on Wednesday, plus an IMAX Q&A exclusive on Wednesday, both titled separately. If customers are searching by title on say, AMC’s website, they might not even see these shows appear.
 

It’s getting a little silly. Or is it just me that thinks this?

 

This was an issue for me that I only noticed midway through my track, however, the IMAX Q&A wasn't selling well, so the impact was minimal.

 

I have to think it's causing confusion for consumers though. 

 

I know the general belief is that there's no downsides to extra early showings and it's all additional revenue, but my take is that these early shows benefit when they're packed houses, and some sense of scarcity. Both Fall Guy and Twisters ran EA showings with wide theatre counts on the day before, and it didn't work out great for Fall Guy, and not trending well for Twisters.

 

Barbie did a great job last year. Limited showings, small venues, and they hyped up the party element. Dune did promotions with some IMAX merch I believe. It helps when the film is already tracking well, but I believe that pushing an aggressive screen count for early shows really dilutes any impact it might have.

[SpiderByte]

Marvel doing a victory lap panel before the prelims will even be in is a sign they're very very happy with whatever their internals show

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good catch. That was not part of my tracking for sure. Another 102 shows for wednesday. But if its just 1 TC, it may not matter that much. 

 

Edit: Sold 5040 tickets across 102 shows (tad above 115K). 

Interestingly, it appears MTC4 up here in Canada is having both on Wednesday as well at some locations. I say interesting because half the time we don’t even get regular EA screenings that everyone else does, let alone 2 kinds in one evening. 
 

With all these shows, the Xfinity 2 for 1, the Luke Combs song from the soundtrack doing well on country radio. etc. no one can say Universal isn’t pushing hard domestically.

[dudalb]

25 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

Oh, don't get me wrong, $50m should be a very safe bet at this point. It's just the breakout to 75m that doesn't look likely. 

It will do between 50 and 60 Million.

With it doing OK overseas at beast, Uni/Warners might have to settle for a very modest  profit on Twisters. Better then losing money of course, but you don't spend 200 Million for a "modest: profit.

And I think it is becomng clear that audiences are demanding more for their twelve bucks then they used to. You need a hook aside from just being fun. 

Deadpool/Wovie will be a huge blocksbuste because people like the charecters and want to see them toghether for somehting more then a brief on. That is good example of the Hook a film has t ohave to be a huge blockbuster nowdays. Not necessrily, of course, that exact hook but some hook.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/13/2024 at 9:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
230	9970	44009	22.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

173

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-12

(1.841x) of GOTG 3 $32.21M

Definite acceleration. Going to have to pace really well in the last two weeks to really threaten for $40M previews. Probably strong reactions x reviews can help it get close. 

 

*For Fun 

(2.088x) of Barbenheimer $65.97M

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
244	10366	46659	22.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

245

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

14

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-10

(1.704x) of GOTG 3 $29.81M

Not a great day. Starting to worry about $30M+ previews. 

[Flip]

5 hours ago, SaltyPistola said:

Any tracking for Alien yet?

Didn’t feel like tracking it yet, it’s not doing very well. Industry predictions are ~30m IIIRC

[vafrow]

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, D4, T-31, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 21

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 7

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 3.0

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 3/1

Early Evening: 16/3

Late Evening: 2/3

 

Tickets by Format:

VIP: 12/4

IMAX: 9/3

 

Comps

D4 Comps

1.909x AQP:D1 for $13.0M

1.500x KOTPOTA for $7.5M

0.467x Furiosa for $1.6M

1.105x BB:ROD for $6.5M

 

I thought I'd set this up since it's doing better than anticipated, and I'm curious if it holds steady or not.

 

It's doing well despite only playing in 2 of 5 theatres right now. It also started its sales cycle much earlier than everything else being comped. The only other comps I have with earlier starts are Twisters and Fall Guy, and those will distort worse.

 

I'll probably track daily to see trends, but only post periodically until it gets closer.

 

I'll be curious if anyone else tracks. I haven't paid much attention to this thread, but if this is one of the only tracks of this right now, I caution casual observers to not read too much into a five theatre Canadian sample.