The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

September can be a lucrative month for the right movie. The breakout of IT has to be one of the most bizarre box office stories of the 2010s.

 

I think Beetlejuice can be huge if Burton delivers a movie worthy of his reputation, but that's a very big if these days.

[DAJK]

I will say, I do remember the week leading up to the release of San Andreas 9 years ago (!!) and even a few days before it opened, some were saying that it could very well open in the mid-30s range. Then when the early Friday numbers came in that it was hitting 22-23 OD, there was a collective sigh of relief. 
 

Just saying, I really don’t think Twisters is dead until it actually opens. I understand that the box office is a different landscape today than it was in 2015, but there haven’t been very many disaster movies lately to use as great comps.

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Twisters Previews (T-4)

 

15 showtimes/146 tix sold (+48)

 

.82x Bad Boys 4 (T-4) [4.84]
 

good pace (sold 30 tickets on just today)

Twisters Previews (T-3)

 

23 showtimes/203 tix sold (+57)

 

.94x Bad Boys 4 (T-3) [5.55m]

.46x Inside Out 2 (T-3) [5.98m]
 

Pace is VERY strong, it’s outselling Bad Boys which was one of the strongest finishers I’ve tracked and AQP (which had almost 2x the sales of Twisters before today). The fact that it’s doing all this in NYC is just the cherry on top.

 

Tomorrow I’ll set the benchmark at 105 tickets.

Edited July 16 by Flip

[Flip]

On 7/11/2024 at 8:18 PM, Flip said:

Twisters Friday (T-8)

 

16 showtimes/91 tix sold

 

no comps yet but I’d be surprised if True Friday ends up under 10m 

Twisters Friday (T-4)

 

25 showtimes/195 tix sold (+104)

 

1.34x Twisters Previews (T-4) [???]

.26x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-4) [13.14m]

 

34% growth in the last day!! Just a few days ago IO2 Friday comp was under 10m. Theaters obviously expect it to be big, allocation of screens is bigger than Quiet Place and Bad Boys, second to only Inside Out 2. 

Edited July 16 by Flip

[emoviefan]

Wow it's like it's a genre that is late presale friendly . Who knew?  Let's hope other markets show the same results as the week progresses. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/14/2024 at 9:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	148	530	828	25486	3.25
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	365	645	4624	13.95
TOTALS:	169	895	1473	30110	4.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		562	335	67.87
MTC1:		445	256	53.74
Other chains:		383	274	46.26

 

Thursday Comps:

1.94x Quiet Place Day One: $13.22 Million

1.82x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.1 Million

3.25x Fall Guy: $7.63 Million

0.69x Godzilla x Kong: $6.35 Million (17 theaters)

1.6x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $7.22 Million (17 theaters)

0.58x Indy 5: $4.21 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.96 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.42x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $2.27 Million

2.26x Fall Guy: $1.8 Million

0.9x MI7: $1.8 Million

 

Average: $1.96 Million

 

I mean, WOW. People have been down on this on here but these numbers here are stellar. Looking forward to @jeffthehat's numbers as well, maybe we'll see more strength in the Midwest. This could always be an outlier, but perhaps not!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	227	287	1115	35391	3.15
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	198	843	4624	18.23
TOTALS:	248	485	1958	40015	4.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		724	162	64.93
MTC1:		572	127	51.3
Other chains:		543	160	48.7

 

Thursday Comps:

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

2x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.99 Million

3.6x Fall Guy: $8.45 Million

1.24x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $5.82 Million (17 theaters)

1.75x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $7.9 Million (17 theaters)

0.62x Indy 5: $4.47 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.33 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.65x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $2.64 Million

2.68x Fall Guy: $2.14 Million

1.05x MI7: $2.1 Million

 

Average: $2.29 Million

 

Wow, could EA really be around $2 Million, or am I wildly over-indexing? Still running really hot here

[crazymoviekid]

Twisters: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets 

Theater 2: 16 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $3.50M

TFG: $3.88M

T:RotB: $2.75M

Fast X: $2.10M

Bullet Train: $4.60M

Nope: $2.99M

 

Fine start, but should be better. $3.75M for now.

[jeffthehat]

42 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	227	287	1115	35391	3.15
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	198	843	4624	18.23
TOTALS:	248	485	1958	40015	4.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		724	162	64.93
MTC1:		572	127	51.3
Other chains:		543	160	48.7

 

Thursday Comps:

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

2x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.99 Million

3.6x Fall Guy: $8.45 Million

1.24x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $5.82 Million (17 theaters)

1.75x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $7.9 Million (17 theaters)

0.62x Indy 5: $4.47 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.33 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.65x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $2.64 Million

2.68x Fall Guy: $2.14 Million

1.05x MI7: $2.1 Million

 

Average: $2.29 Million

 

Wow, could EA really be around $2 Million, or am I wildly over-indexing? Still running really hot here

Didn't catch your numbers for this, was thinking my sample was an outlier.  Most comps I have are showing $8m+. But this seems like the kind of movie that will overperform in middle America 

[JustLurking]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah it got a little insane those last few days for Dune Part 2 and that's saying something for this place. It's safe to say that DP and W has a lot more Casual Appeal than that did so the potential for walkups to be insane is pretty big. Assuming the movie is good and the early WOM is. 

I don't think the potential for an R-rated film, and a marvel one at that, to have amazing walkups at this scale of sales is as good as you suggest. If anything I would probably say it has less potential than the average MCU flick on that front.

 

I'd keep in mind a lot of the late buyers are young.

Edited July 16 by JustLurking

[Rorschach]

Twisters (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 118/3,307 (3.6% sold)

4 IMAX showings: 26/1,552

3 XD showings: 10/714

12 2D showings: 82/1,041

 

Comps:

Apes: $8.68M

Furiosa: $7.38M

Avg: $8.03M

 

Friday: 183/4,519 (4% sold)

5 IMAX showings: 43/1,940

5 XD showings: 29/1,190

15 2D showings: 111/1,389

 

Comps:

Apes: $31.3M

Furiosa: $20.91M

Avg: $26.11M

 

Thurs + Fri: 301/7,826 (3.8% sold)

 

Comps:

Apes: $38.93M

Furiosa: $26.87M

Avg: $32.9M

 

 

Midwest Joker bb, let's gooooooooooooooo!

[keysersoze123]

On 7/14/2024 at 9:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 15286/68767 321257.86 304 shows +1457

Previews(T-4) - 32354/562206 614958.55 2778 shows +3551 

Friday - 31494/785606 582219.24 3852 shows +4518

 

1st ignore my comps with Apes. That was not correct. I was looking at Zilla data instead. There is some acceleration today for sure. Let us see how the final week goes. I am still hoping for 50m+ OW. 

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 22981/100121 489894.65 406 shows +7695

Previews(T-3) - 40027/632061 751827.32 3318 shows +7673

Friday - 39963/901150 727659.40 +8469

 

FYI the Imax shows have grossed 5257/31354 119479.47 102 shows. So the rest of early shows i tracked yesterday added another 2438. Still the growth for previews and Friday shows its going to have good OW. Definitely over 50m. 

[keysersoze123]

On 7/14/2024 at 9:53 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-11) - 239300/1289971 4350030.42 7929 shows +4484

MTC1 Friday -129586/1500178 2400682.63 8348 shows

MTC2 Previews - 113332/664580 1707248.65 5148 shows 

 

This is couple of hours more than yesterday but at this point that is not relevant. 

 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-10) - 244833/1292688 4442630.05 7952 shows +5533

Friday - 134198/1501286 2479827.23 8350 shows +4612

 

265K by T-7?

[Ryan C]

40 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I don't think the potential for an R-rated film, and a marvel one at that, to have amazing walkups at this scale of sales is as good as you suggest. If anything I would probably say it has less potential than the average MCU flick on that front.

 

I'd keep in mind a lot of the late buyers are young.

 

Not to completely dismiss your point, but Bad Boys: Ride or Die was an R-rated film and had amazing walk-up business which got it to a fantastic $56.5M opening and was above projections. 

 

I'm not saying Deadpool and Wolverine will have those same kind of walk-ups (it probably won't skew as diverse as something like Bad Boys or A Quiet Place: Day One), but I still think walk-ups will be essential for this movie to open as high as it probably will. 

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Not to completely dismiss your point, but Bad Boys: Ride or Die was an R-rated film and had amazing walk-up business which got it to a fantastic $56.5M opening and was above projections. 

 

I'm not saying Deadpool and Wolverine will have those same kind of walk-ups (it probably won't skew as diverse as something like Bad Boys or A Quiet Place: Day One), but I still think walk-ups will be essential for this movie to open as high as it probably will. 

Sure, which is why I specified at this scale. Otherwise we could bring in loads of horror films with good to great walkups for instance. Not that Bad Boys' OW isn't good, but getting great walkups to support a 50M OW and getting great walkups to support an 150-180M one is an entirely different thing.

[Bob Train]

6 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Not to completely dismiss your point, but Bad Boys: Ride or Die was an R-rated film and had amazing walk-up business which got it to a fantastic $56.5M opening and was above projections. 

 

I'm not saying Deadpool and Wolverine will have those same kind of walk-ups (it probably won't skew as diverse as something like Bad Boys or A Quiet Place: Day One), but I still think walk-ups will be essential for this movie to open as high as it probably will. 

MCU movies fall into a very predictable pattern. It's not the type of movie where walkups are a big x-factor.

[Ryan C]

16 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Sure, which is why I specified at this scale. Otherwise we could bring in loads of horror films with good to great walkups for instance. Not that Bad Boys' OW isn't good, but getting great walkups to support a 50M OW and getting great walkups to support an 150-180M one is an entirely different thing.

 

Ok, that makes more sense. 

 

Still, if the early reviews for this movie are genuinely great and if what I'm hearing based on people who saw the first 35-40 minutes are any indication, we could see a massive acceleration in not just pre-sales but walk-ups as we get closer to the opening. Maybe it won't happen (I totally understand the mindset of not jumping too quick to conclusions), but I just feel that in a summer as unpredictable as this, anything could happen and I'm willing to stay optimistic for now regarding what is easily the most hyped film of the summer.

[Human]

I have real doubts Twisters overperforms in middle America.  If they made "Hurricane the Movie" I do not think my fellow Gulf Coasters watch it in theaters.

[stripe]

6 hours ago, DAJK said:

I will say, I do remember the week leading up to the release of San Andreas 9 years ago (!!) and even a few days before it opened, some were saying that it could very well open in the mid-30s range. Then when the early Friday numbers came in that it was hitting 22-23 OD, there was a collective sigh of relief. 
 

Just saying, I really don’t think Twisters is dead until it actually opens. I understand that the box office is a different landscape today than it was in 2015, but there haven’t been very many disaster movies lately to use as great comps.

 

I also have this movie in mind. And JW.

Walkups are stronger for this genre. Expecting a strong acceleration in T-2 and T-1, and a great saturday for Twisters.

[Porthos]

On 7/15/2024 at 2:32 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	287	29645	37168	7523	20.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

148

 

T-11 Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.24		189	11025		0/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	35.63%		24.56m
L&T	104.72		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	44.35%		30.37m
BP2	98.78		200	7616		2/296	29538/37154	20.50%		16800	44.78%		27.66m
AM3	145.32		162	5177		0/238	27617/32794	15.79%		10475	71.82%		25.43m
GOTG3	193.74		111	3883		0/203	25171/29054	13.36%		10750	69.98%		33.90m
Bats	168.38		130	4468		0/285	30994/35462	12.60%		11757	63.99%		36.37m
Ava 2	227.21		177	3311		0/145	18173/21484	15.41%		8986	83.72%		38.63m
Dune 2	300.92		70	2500		0/174	22687/25187	9.93%		6001	125.36%		36.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1726/13029  [13.25% sold]
Matinee:    493/4466  [11.04% | 6.55% of all tickets sold]
3D:             876/7745  [11.31% | 11.64% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3496/11729  [29.81% | 46.47% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     138 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     139 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.63452x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-11 [39.82m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	287	29393	37168	7775	20.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

252

 

T-10 Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.87		265	11290		0/353	31386/42676	26.46%		21117	36.82%		24.79m
L&T	105.61		178	7362		0/228	24235/31597	23.30%		16962	45.84%		30.63m
BP2	99.46		201	7817		2/295	29214/37031	21.11%		16800	46.28%		27.85m
AM3	146.17		142	5319		0/238	27475/32794	16.22%		10475	74.22%		25.58m
GOTG3	192.64		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		10750	72.33%		33.71m
Bats	167.82		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	66.13%		36.25m
Ava 2	223.87		162	3473		0/145	18011/21484	16.17%		8986	86.52%		38.06m
Dune 2	301.71		77	2577		0/173	22514/25091	10.27%		6001	129.56%		36.20m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1782/13029  [13.68% sold]
Matinee:    511/4466  [11.44% | 6.57% of all tickets sold]
3D:            908/7376  [12.31% | 11.68% of all tickets sold]
PLF:    3548/11729  [30.25% | 45.63% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     228 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     237 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.63897x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [39.93m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

=======

 

Juuuuuuust a bit of a rebound today, I'd say.

[Porthos]

Quick and Dirty Twisters Sacramento Report [T-3]

1445/27848 (5.19% sold) 192 showtimes

[EA: 804/3697 (21.75% sold) - 17 showtimes | Stan:  641/24151 (2.65% sold) 175 showtimes]

 

0.73054x  RotB at T-3         [6.43m]
2.66114x   Fall Guy at T-3    [8.38m]
0.77982x  GxK at T-3           [7.80m]
0.94941x  KPotA at T-3       [6.27m]
1.90132x   Furiosa at T-3     [6.65m]
---

1.10474x   BOSS at T-3         [6.35m]
1.67245x  Wonka  at T-3      [5.85m]
1.33057x  Aquabro 2 at T-3 [5.99m]
1.47449x  GBFE  at T-3        [6.93m]

 

=====

 

First things first.  The EA/Standard split is IN-SANE.  Like holy heck insane.  Not entirely sure what to make of it.  One thing I have noted is that a couple of 10pm EA showtimes have been added for Wed, so make of that what one will.

 

Hard for me to truly judge where this is headed (was glancing at it over the weekend) because the EA showtimes are putting a tremendous thumb on the scale.  But the RotB comp feels pretty good to me as it's the most similar of all the comps, I think.  Could see it touching 7m total, though a lot is gonna depend on just how much demand gets burnt off on Wed night.

 

More thoughts when I get a better sense of pace/just how well Thursday is doing.