Weekend Thread 7/28-7/30 - Barbenheimer Week 2; Barbie 93M/Oppy 46.2M - Haunted Mansion & Talk to Me OW; Mansion 24.2M, Talk 10M

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I doubt Disney are doomed in the long run. I know some want Disney to collapse but every studio goes through a down period. 

 

 

 

Disney won’t collapse. They own a ton of extremely popular content in their archives. But maybe they won’t have the same level of dominance that they gained when they bought PIXAR, Star Wars, and Marvel. 

[ringedmortality]

How does everyone feel about Disney's slate next year.

 

Outside of Deadpool 3 none of the marvel movies feel like they're gonna turn a profit.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Mufasa seem like they can go either way.

 

Elio and Inside Out 2 should at the very least turn things around for Pixar.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Disney won’t collapse. They own a ton of extremely popular content in their archives. But maybe they won’t have the same level of dominance that they gained when they bought PIXAR, Star Wars, and Marvel. 

Which is to be expected and every studio goes through it, 2019 was an exception where everything was hugely successful in one form or another. 

[filmlover]

Haunted Mansion should hit $30M or so over the weekend since it's unlikely to be frontloaded. Obviously not going to be good given the budget, but considering the lackluster reviews, the fact it appeared largely indistinguishable from the barely-remembered Eddie Murphy vehicle from 20 years ago (other than having more of an ensemble cast), and the Barbenheimer behemoth sucking up most of the oxygen right now, probably the best it could hope for. We'll see if it can take advantage of what's looking to be an almost depressingly empty August to leg it out to at least $100M total.

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, swishy said:

Yeah, Saturday and Sunday is where we will see big growth IMO. And still expecting great numbers.

Not expecting big Sat jump either. Could be just 20s jump for Barbie, Oppy may should have better Sat jump due to runtime.

 

Sun holds can be great though.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

How does everyone feel about Disney's slate next year.

 

Outside of Deadpool 3 none of the marvel movies feel like they're gonna turn a profit.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Mufasa seem like they can go either way.

 

Elio and Inside Out 2 should at the very least turn things around for Pixar.

Planet of the Apes I think can actually do well for them. The problem is that its current Memorial Day release date has it going up against three other movies. Disney needs to move it to April which is currently dead.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Planet of the Apes I think can actually do well for them. The problem is that its current Memorial Day release date has it going up against three other movies. Disney needs to move it to April which is currently dead.

I think Apes might end up moving to first weekend of May. 

 

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Haunted Mansion should hit $30M or so over the weekend since it's unlikely to be frontloaded. Obviously not going to be good given the budget, but considering the lackluster reviews, the fact it appeared largely indistinguishable from the barely-remembered Eddie Murphy vehicle from 20 years ago (other than having more of an ensemble cast), and the Barbenheimer behemoth sucking up most of the oxygen right now, probably the best it could hope for. We'll see if it can take advantage of what's looking to be an almost depressingly empty August to leg it out to at least $100M total.

I think TMNT will do well and Gran Turismo might do okay.

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Planet of the Apes I think can actually do well for them. The problem is that its current Memorial Day release date has it going up against three other movies. Disney needs to move it to April which is currently dead.

 

Garfield and Furiosa are also opening that weekend? Jeez.

 

I feel like Garfield should move to February or something.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I think TMNT will do well and Gran Turismo might do okay.

TMNT will definitely be the highlight of the month. Strays might do okay too if reviews are solid. But other than that...oof.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I think Apes might end up moving to first weekend of May. 

 

I think TMNT will do well and Gran Turismo might do okay.

May 3rd could work but I think Disney will more likely move Captain America back there.

 

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Garfield and Furiosa are also opening that weekend? Jeez.

 

I feel like Garfield should move to February or something.

 

There’s also IF, a movie directed by John Krasinski and stars Ryan Reynolds.

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

TMNT will definitely be the highlight of the month. Strays might do okay too if reviews are solid. But other than that...oof.

Strays I think will suffer from lack of being able to promote it, it looks funny though.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Did Talk To Me have early access showings or is that number pure Thursday?

[WorkingonaName]

14 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

How does everyone feel about Disney's slate next year.

 

Outside of Deadpool 3 none of the marvel movies feel like they're gonna turn a profit.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Mufasa seem like they can go either way.

 

Elio and Inside Out 2 should at the very least turn things around for Pixar.

Deadpool 3 will underperform but still make a profit.

 

The other marvel movies will flop/bomb.

 

Apes will either have a another large drop off or breakout due to memes.

 

Mufasa will get slaughtered if they keep it against DM4.

 

Inside Out 2 should do fine.

 

Have no idea with Elio.

Edited July 28, 2023 by WorkingonaName

[ringedmortality]

Do we know the budget for Snow White yet. Is it another 200M+ movie?

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

How does everyone feel about Disney's slate next year.

 

Outside of Deadpool 3 none of the marvel movies feel like they're gonna turn a profit.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Mufasa seem like they can go either way.

 

Elio and Inside Out 2 should at the very least turn things around for Pixar.

The schedule for next year all depends on how long the strike lasts and how big the backlog will be.

[Grebacio]

43 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, when's the last time we saw Disney have a "terrible, horrible, no good, very bad" year at theatres? 

2011, that year their only hits were Pirates 4 and Muppets. Cars 2 made a tiny profit from Box Office, and they had 2 animated flops with Mars Needs Moms and Winnie The Pooh

 

46 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

 

 

Even WB finally found a massive hit to offset all their issues...does Disney have one left this year?

I think Wish could be a hit if they don't screw with the markleting.

[katnisscinnaplex]

5 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Did Talk To Me have early access showings or is that number pure Thursday?

It had ~100 AMC shows on Wednesday 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Disney is such a punchline now it's not even funny anymore. Everything went wrong for them this year. Quantumania and Secret Invasion sent their golden goose of old Marvel into the gutter, their Black Panther 2.0 came and went without much fanfare, Indy 5 fell flat on its face and now Haunted Mansion is a dud too. Their only hit this year has been Guardians 3 and even that one only got there because of word of mouth. Oh, and the creative head behind it jumped ship to your rival. The worst part of it all is that the suits will likely take their rage out on their employees later this year with brutal layoffs. Employees who are most likely not to blame for greenlighting drivel no one wants to see.

 

As for Barbie and Oppenheimer, I really hope they go up significantly from those early numbers. But I wouldn't be all that shocked at fairly steep drops for them either. Viral sensations do cause some frontloading after all, and now that the Barbenheimer craze is fading away, it's time for them to stand on their own and find their footing. The second weekend numbers will no doubt cause a lot of meltdowns here, but they'll likely stabilize afterwards with a fairly dry couple of months ahead.

[swishy]

2 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Not expecting big Sat jump either. Could be just 20s jump for Barbie, Oppy may should have better Sat jump due to runtime.

 

Sun holds can be great though.

It doesn't need a high multiplier to do 90m+ (since the weekday numbers are so strong).

 

Even if there are no more sales or walkups today, and Friday stays at 27, and Saturday/Sunday doesn't increase at all, that still means 80m+ is locked.

 

But obviously, Saturday will increase because of the pre-5pm and late night shows. And Friday will keep selling throughout the day, so might go up to 28-29m.

 

29m Friday + 25% growth Saturday and 15% decrease Sunday already gets you to 98m weekend.

 

It'll be fine.