Weekdays Thread: Barbie $9.1M MON | $9.6M TUES

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I saw every best picture winner from 1970 and almost (80%) all of their competitors in that year. I never found a bad movie from the winner list, they are not bad movie by any means, they are just unworthy winner. Tbh, I find SiL and crash to be pretty good-great movie but doesn't mean I would agree with them being named as best movie of the year beating SPR and BM. 

 

To me Oscar is just a platform for me to discover great movie. Sometime I was totally onboard with certain movie wining the race like Birdman and Spotlight but meanwhile there are time also I find it very hard to swallow some decision like the shape of water. 

 

Movie taste is subjective, nobody is supposed to be agreeing or disagreeing with each other all the time. 

you’re totally right and that’s how I’ve made my peace with some of the winners that used to get me angry. 
 

To me it’s about getting nominated and raising the profile of the movie for those that see the Oscars as the confirmation something should be seen. 
 

The race is then then put through such a political/media frenzy bandwagon that they can shock. Social Network being beaten at the last by King’s Speech stunned me when it happened. 
 

but yeah, it’s all about getting nominated. Then it’s over to the spin machine, where literally anything can happen. 
 

Never underestimate the ‘it’s time’ Oscar wins for filmmakers or actors that have never won one.  I think Nolan is due, and the narrative is pointing that way. Not that the movie isn’t worthy by the way as it’s amazing. But if he’d won already I’d say it’s less likely than it probably is right now. 

[upriser7]

Luiz's projections are usually quite poor but I really like his account just for the fact that he is the only one that updates daily numbers (also updates drop vs lw, drop vs yday etc) on twitter for most of the movies in multiple markets. He was one of the reasons I got into following Hollywood BO numbers closely during NWH run

[ThomasNicole]

#ElementalSweep 

 

Pixar President on ‘Elemental’s’ Unlikely Box Office Rebound:

We have a lot of different revenue streams, but at the box office we’re looking at now, it should do better than break even theatrically.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I saw every best picture winner from 1970 and almost (80%) all of their competitors in that year. I never found a bad movie from the winner list, they are not bad movie by any means, they are just unworthy winner. Tbh, I find SiL and crash to be pretty good-great movie but doesn't mean I would agree with them being named as best movie of the year beating SPR and BM. 

 

To me Oscar is just a platform for me to discover great movie. Sometime I was totally onboard with certain movie wining the race like Birdman and Spotlight but meanwhile there are time also I find it very hard to swallow some decision like the shape of water. 

 

Movie taste is subjective, nobody is supposed to be agreeing or disagreeing with each other all the time. 

this is funny because I very much find spotlight to be an unworthy film, a good film in a year with a ton of greatness lol

 

it's definitely impossible to make everyone happy

Edited August 9, 2023 by JustLurking

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

@Cap I have never heard anybody say that Tommy Lee Jones is performance was just fine. You say that his performance was like everything else he's ever done, but that's because everything else came after the fugitive. I think his performance in The fugitive is one of the all-time great performances in the history of film. He had so many nuances so many great ways of delivering lines and he made me laugh quite often.

 

I just don't like Shakespeare in love. Even before it beat out saving Private Ryan I just didn't like it. I didn't like the script I didn't like Gwyneth Paltrow there was just nothing about the film that I enjoyed. It's such an overrated piece of dung LOL, now I haven't seen it probably since 1998 so maybe I'll give it a rewatch and I'll come back and let you know what I think.

 

But this just goes to show that even the most beloved actors and performances or an Oscar winner for best picture can be viewed by two different people and two completely different ways. 

Yeah such a weird take to have. He shouldn't have won because  it seems like a lot of the characters he played after that. Okay. That performance is great. Watched the movie again this past week and it holds up in every way. And SIL deserving to win over SPR. NO,, NO, and NO. I actually like SIL but in no way should that have won. But as you said people can see stuff in different ways.

[kayumanggi]

33 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

Luiz's projections are usually quite poor but I really like his account just for the fact that he is the only one that updates daily numbers (also updates drop vs lw, drop vs yday etc) on twitter for most of the movies in multiple markets. He was one of the reasons I got into following Hollywood BO numbers closely during NWH run

 

I agree. Really poor. But just like what you said he always goes the extra mile by adding more info to give us some perspective. He is also among the earliest if not the earliest to report especially on weekends with big openers. I mean you can see he really prepares for these numbers. I can feel the excitement. It's just up to us whether these (extra) numbers are worth digesting or not.

Edited August 9, 2023 by kayumanggi

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, tawasal said:

First estimates for Oppenheimer monday was 4.0 and it ended with 4.7, so there is still room to grow. 

Universal has been slower than the other studios pretty much every day, so I guess we will see if this number changes later in the day. If not, then it seems the 3 hour runtime was a big deal for the Canadian holiday boost on Monday. 

[titanic2187]

17 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

you’re totally right and that’s how I’ve made my peace with some of the winners that used to get me angry. 
 

To me it’s about getting nominated and raising the profile of the movie for those that see the Oscars as the confirmation something should be seen. 
 

The race is then then put through such a political/media frenzy bandwagon that they can shock. Social Network being beaten at the last by King’s Speech stunned me when it happened. 
 

but yeah, it’s all about getting nominated. Then it’s over to the spin machine, where literally anything can happen. 
 

Never underestimate the ‘it’s time’ Oscar wins for filmmakers or actors that have never won one.  I think Nolan is due, and the narrative is pointing that way. Not that the movie isn’t worthy by the way as it’s amazing. But if he’d won already I’d say it’s less likely than it probably is right now. 

Nolan has always been one of the most overdue director/writers in this generation, joining the like of David Fincher, Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson. Nolan certainly has the overdue narrative that Universal should know how to deploy their strategy. The only backlash I can think of for Oppenheimer when it start climbing up Oscar ladder is the movie being "too white and too male", but the past few years best picture winner have been female and POC-center like Parasite, EEAAO, Nomadland and CODA. That should open up some appetite for voters to accept a more "traditional" white male movie.

 

28 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

#ElementalSweep 

 

Pixar President on ‘Elemental’s’ Unlikely Box Office Rebound:

We have a lot of different revenue streams, but at the box office we’re looking at now, it should do better than break even theatrically.

 

They better make sure the movie re-expand during cinema day weekend or Labour day weekend. The current drop is unjust. 

 

17 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

this is funny because I very much find spotlight to be an unworthy film, a good film in a year with a ton of greatness lol

 

it's definitely impossible to make everyone happy

I am a proponent of "Best picture winner should be an important, socially-relevant film", provided they are great. I absolute love how Spotlight explore the idea of attention span for the social issue. That is why Spotlight made the cut for me, the alternative of that year being the Big Short although I enjoyed Mad Max more.

 

 

[M37]

That $660-$730M range for Barbie is a 4-4.5x OW multi, or 2.56-2.83x OWeek … which is certainly possible, don’t think we’ve seen enough yet to stake that kind of claim with any certainty 

 

For comparison, a 2x OWeek is standard, GOTG3 had a 2.35x and Dark Knight was 2.24x from a similar release date. Legging out 15-40% better than either of those would require a string of sub-30% drops, and we have yet to see a single one 

 

Still think more around ~$650M (~2.5x) is the target (CC @Brainbug)

[M37]

11 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I agree. Really poor. But just like what you said he always goes the extra mile by adding more info to give us some perspective. He is also among the earliest if not the earliest to report especially on weekends with big openers. I mean you can see he really prepares for these numbers. I can feel the excitement. It's just up to us whether these (extra) numbers are worth digesting or not.

It’s no different than Deadline: early numbers, but take the extrapolation from them with heaps of salt

[The GOAT]

Discount Tuesday is now $7 for AMC

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

That $660-$730M range for Barbie is a 4-4.5x OW multi, or 2.56-2.83x OWeek … which is certainly possible, don’t think we’ve seen enough yet to stake that kind of claim with any certainty 

 

For comparison, a 2x OWeek is standard, GOTG3 had a 2.35x and Dark Knight was 2.24x from a similar release date. Legging out 15-40% better than either of those would require a string of sub-30% drops, and we have yet to see a single one 

 

Still think more around ~$650M (~2.5x) is the target (CC @Brainbug)

 

[upriser7]

I did a comp of TDK's multiplier for each of first 3 weeks and used it for projecting Barbie's final numbers...basically Barbie's number is increasing with each week

 

Wk1: TDK - 238.6M (2.23 Multiplier)

Wk2: TDK - 112.4M (2.62 Multiplier for rest of the run )

Wk3: TDK - 64.4M (2.82 Multiplier for rest of the run)

 

For Barbie, projected final number using TDK comps by each week -

Wk1: 577M

Wk2: 646M

Wk3: 654M (assuming Barbie is gonna end Wk3 at around 87-88)

[M37]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I’m saying 

[Boxx93]

I didn't like the Barbie movie, but I'll be first to support "I'm Just Ken" for Best Original Song. That 80's power ballad vibe goes hard and I love it.

Edited August 9, 2023 by Boxx93

[kayumanggi]

 

[Ledmonkey96]

Not sure i'd call a 61% on RT great so i'll assume he's involved in the movie in some way and just cherry picking?

[ringedmortality]

11 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

Weber 🧢ing

[abracadabra1998]

9 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Not sure i'd call a 61% on RT great so i'll assume he's involved in the movie in some way and just cherry picking?

EW just chooses some weird hills to die on. In this case he probably liked the movie so he’s trying to spin it. I wouldn’t pay much attention to him

[Valonqar]

10 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Not sure i'd call a 61% on RT great so i'll assume he's involved in the movie in some way and just cherry picking?

 

Good to know that Sony cheque didn't bounce.