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Gavin Feng

Weekdays Thread: Barbie $9.1M MON | $9.6M TUES

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1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Cronenberg Crash is supposedly a good movie, though

I actually saw that in the theater way back. I didn't find it bad, but it is probably top 5 for weird.

The one thing that sticks out is I saw more people walk out of that movie than any other movie I saw, by far.

 

Personally I've never walked out of a movie, but I was a hair away from walking out of Tree of Life, soooooo boring!

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After Tuesday's grosses, Barbie is at a 2.95x multiplier and Oppenheimer at 2.88x. Barbie will smash past a 3x multiplier either today or tomorrow, and Oppenheimer will sail past on the weekend. What a joy this has been following their runs. Hoping for some really strong late legs from both.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

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Damn, Iger just officially called Disney’s box office this year “disappointing.” He had to list A2 as the bright spot, which was a 2022 film at the end of the day. Hopefully people here will stop with the narrative that some of us are just doom and glooming how bad of a year it’s been for Disney. You know it’s bad when Bob freakin Iger feels compelled to make an official statement about it. 

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The Gran Turismo EA showings are performing a lot better at AMC than at Regal. Considering it doesn’t open until next week, tonight’s sales seem solid to me if not great in some locations. There are some sneak preview showings on tap for this weekend so if they are all rolled up into the Thursday preview numbers, the opening Friday numbers could be surprising.

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2 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I am curious to see how the strategy Sony is using for Gran Turismo will do. Closest example I can think of in terms of large tentpole  pictures was Ghost Protocol getting that initial imax limited release. 

I'm gonna take a wild guess that GT is no GP. 

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26 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

After Tuesday's grosses, Barbie is at a 2.95x multiplier and Oppenheimer at 2.88x. Barbie will smash past a 3x multiplier either today or tomorrow, and Oppenheimer will sail past on the weekend. What a joy this has been following their runs. Hoping for some really strong late legs from both.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

 

TDK was 2.56x, Dunkirk was 2.74x, and Inception was 3.21x at this point from a similar release date. Barbie's performance is jawdropping. 

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13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Damn, Iger just officially called Disney’s box office this year “disappointing.” He had to list A2 as the bright spot, which was a 2022 film at the end of the day. Hopefully people here will stop with the narrative that some of us are just doom and glooming how bad of a year it’s been for Disney. You know it’s bad when Bob freakin Iger feels compelled to make an official statement about it. 

Obviously Indy 5/Haunted Mansion are busts and Mermaid/Elemental are not huge breakouts though there are positives from both those movies. Guardians have to be successful despite finishing below 2nd movie Dom/WW. Ant 3 is a disappointment as well. So overall have to be negative but there are studios doing worse. 

 

My feeling is 2024 will be worse. That said as a public company their performance elsewhere at Parks/Cruises and how they pare streaming losses impacts their stock price which has been among my worst investments in past decade 😞

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17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Damn, Iger just officially called Disney’s box office this year “disappointing.” He had to list A2 as the bright spot, which was a 2022 film at the end of the day. Hopefully people here will stop with the narrative that some of us are just doom and glooming how bad of a year it’s been for Disney. You know it’s bad when Bob freakin Iger feels compelled to make an official statement about it. 

Uh yeah he's compelled to make a statement. he's the CEO at an Earnings Call

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14 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

The Gran Turismo EA showings are performing a lot better at AMC than at Regal. Considering it doesn’t open until next week, tonight’s sales seem solid to me if not great in some locations. There are some sneak preview showings on tap for this weekend so if they are all rolled up into the Thursday preview numbers, the opening Friday numbers could be surprising.

So Gran Turismo is gonna pull a Tenet and include the 8-9 days of early access as part of the opening weekend, resulting in a "big number" that's reported in all the headlines. Then for the "second weekend", Sony will be sure to focus on the pure Fri-Sun drop to claim it's holding really well!

 

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At the very least, this statement from Iger officially signals the end of a long era for Disney. We are no longer going to be seeing the days of everything getting 200mil+ thrown at it like candy. Gone are the days of The Haunted Mansion type of non-event mega budget films from them for the foreseeable future. 

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35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

their stock price which has been among my worst investments in past decade

Dad and I not selling at 134 was such a mistake 🫤

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31 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Uh yeah he's compelled to make a statement. he's the CEO at an Earnings Call

I've always thought Earnings Call is when the CEO tries to sound as positive as possible.

 

So, Iger not speaking so good about most 2023 movies seems a bad sign.

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37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Obviously Indy 5/Haunted Mansion are busts and Mermaid/Elemental are not huge breakouts though there are positives from both those movies. Guardians have to be successful despite finishing below 2nd movie Dom/WW. Ant 3 is a disappointment as well. So overall have to be negative but there are studios doing worse. 

 

My feeling is 2024 will be worse. That said as a public company their performance elsewhere at Parks/Cruises and how they pare streaming losses impacts their stock price which has been among my worst investments in past decade 😞

I mean yeah, it certainly doesn’t help anything that their worst box office lineup in decades is aligning with summer low attendance at their parks and the results of the implosion of the streaming first model. It’s all a perfect storm of bad for them. I agree next year’s movie slate is a bigger question mark than this year’s ever was, so that’s certainly not a re-assuring thought for time right now. 

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Just now, Kon said:

I've always thought Earnings Call is when the CEO tries to sound as positive as possible.

 

So, Iger not speaking so good about most 2023 movies seems a bad sign.

 

Earnings call is also a chance for analysts & media people to ask very tough questions. This happened with my company when they made some big mistakes, spending too much money on projects that were not able to bring enough revenue to justify the expenses. It finally caught up to us a couple years after the projects began. The earnings call was ugly as hell. VERY tough questions from analysts & media people. The CEO and other executives have very weak answers. 

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10 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

These multis for Barbenheimer are crazy, I wonder how much they could have grossed if they opened earlier in the summer or in the weeks leading up to christmas. 

Seems like they had the perfect release date. Everything in June except ITSV flopped, then Indy and MI disappointed, clearing the path for Barbenheimer to blow up. Aug-Oct is pretty dead so great legs should continue.

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