National Cinema Day Draw 8.5m admission | GT $17.4m | Barbie $15.1m | BB: $12.2m | Oppy: $8.2m | TMNT: $6.1m | Meg2: $4.8m

[Mojoguy]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

I'm legit shocked TMNT dropped on Sun from Sat. Minions and Supet Pets had the biggest jumps last NCD.

 

What the hell happened?

[reddevil19]

15 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Bottoms

 

Diversity demos were 67% Caucasian, 20% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black and 14% Asian

That's a fairly accurate demo breakdown for bottoms in my personal experience... Well, slightly higher for black, tbh. 👀

[reddevil19]

8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I'm legit shocked TMNT dropped on Sun from Sat. Minions and Supet Pets had the biggest jumps last NCD.

 

What the hell happened?

I think the fact that it's a Sunday still matters when it comes to afternoon and evening shows, for an animated flick...

[electride]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

I'm legit shocked TMNT dropped on Sun from Sat. Minions and Supet Pets had the biggest jumps last NCD.

 

What the hell happened?

Paramount might be making a conservative estimate for what's a guaranteed fifth place regardless since last week was lowballed as well, walkups are going to be all out of whack today and Blue Beetle also had a bit more audience overlap than expected. Plus, last year's NCD coincided with Labor Day and was on a Saturday, so I don't think there's enough data to make absolute patterns on how much some films should jump or drop.

 

Overall though, I doubt some of these Sunday jumps will be as big as studios reported them.

Edited August 27, 2023 by electride

[Chaz]

5 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The most underrated of 00s sitcoms. Brilliant from start to finish.

[Chaz]

I’m so excited for LDW so I can finally check out TMNT.

[Chaz]

32 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

That's a fairly accurate demo breakdown for bottoms in my personal experience... Well, slightly higher for black, tbh. 👀

That’s because everybody in the south is a bottom.

[SchumacherFTW]

22 minutes ago, Chaz said:

The most underrated of 00s sitcoms. Brilliant from start to finish.

I detect no lies

[M37]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

I'm legit shocked TMNT dropped on Sun from Sat. Minions and Supet Pets had the biggest jumps last NCD.

 

What the hell happened?

Nothing has happened … it hasn’t dropped yet. It’s an estimate, with not a whole lot of guidance for it

 

My expectations are for films to at worst hold nearly flat to be +10-20% from Sat, meaning Paramount will be too low and WB too high (that’s probably who is forecasting the 8.75M admit Sunday)

[Porthos]

So, interestingly enough the local TrueIMAX theater which still has the 15/70mm print of Oppenheimer is NOT taking part in NCD, and thus still has $18 tickets ($20 when bought online).

 

So how is that doing today in the face of massive NCD competition locally?

 

I dunno... You tell me:

 

 

(the other showing in the day is doing similar business)

[titanic2187]

https://deadline.com/2023/08/bottoms-mgm-indie-box-office-specialty-film-golda-the-hill-1235529128/

 

Quote

Sunday’s final tally will determine if Bottoms nabs the highest per-screen average post-pandemic on ten or more screens. A24’s Everything Everywhere All At Opened to $50,131 at 10 locations in March of 2022. He sees strong opening numbers at AMC Lincoln Square, Burbank and the Grove boding well as the film expands to 700 screens next week. 

 

Quote

He gave a shoutout to producer and Orion President Alana Mayo for Bottoms, which currently rates a 95% with critics and 100% with audiences on Rotten Tomatoes. Exit polls are above the norm, with women under 25 especially enthusiastic. The opening night audience for this twist on a high school coming of age drama was young, with 86% between 18-34, and 59% LGBTQ.

 

Bottom has some crazy good exit poll reception. Hope this translate well to the long run and show that staggered release model still works especially for mid-small movie. Margaret by Lionsgate earlier this year opened way too rush and eventually lost the opportunity to leg out well. 

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Diversity demos were 67% Caucasian, 20% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black and 14% Asian

 

... Did Deadline make a typo somewhere? That adds up to 108%.

[MovieMan89]

Hopefully Barbie pulls it out in actuals, obviously deserves to be #1. Trailing JW by 16m with a 6m bigger weekend. Last week the gap was 24m with a 3m bigger weekend. With LD boost, it’s prob on track to catch up to it within the next 3 weeks. 

[Hilts]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Barbenheimer Sunday was around 7M admissions - even Engame Sunday was a bit over 9M. Again, might look silly by tomorrow, but I just can see NCD blowing past the former and approaching the latter. Give me the under on 7.5M admits, which is what NCD had last year; more like $25-$30M aggregate gross

 

Those 3.1M presales is not much different than a big Thursday preview, audiences recognizing the limited supply and buying early, where even walk-up monster JWD (+68%) and MI7 w/ Tue discount (+85%) couldn’t double sales at MTC1 on final day 

 

You are realist, I am optimist 🙂

 

Last year there was nothing new that weekend, just NWH re-release. Whilst GT and 2nd weekend BB are by no means big hitters, they are new, both in IMAX and $4 is a steal. Once they are sold-out, maybe that leads to spillover for everything else. Plus there is of course Barbenheimer. This year the product seems to have more breadth and more appealing for GA - total Friday gross is estimated at 2x last year (less GT previews). All this will only help, but I understand your points and there is a limit to walk-ups. It's Sunday too, not Saturday which will make a dent no matter what. 

 

Think $35M is perhaps a bit too bullish, but I hope for $30M minimum (i.e. same admits as last year)

[TMP]

Gran Turismo is pretty dramatically inert, but my god it’s a riot in 4DX - especially with a crowd as into it as mine was. At $4, it’s gotta be the ticket to beat this weekend.

[MovieMan89]

I have a vendetta with GT ever since I saw a spot that claimed “critics are raving!” and then showed the 90%+ AUDIENCE RT score. I absolutely loathe deceptive crap like that in marketing. Just be honest and say audiences love it or whatever. 

[LonePirate]

Barbie needs about $53.3M more to obtain a 4.0x multiplier and another $5M or so after that to pass Jurassic World for #10 on the all-time list. Seems to be a bit of a stretch but the film has no competition for its main audience and it keeps spending time atop the daily charts so it will probably leg it out. Simply amazing how the film will finish up with a gross of roughly 6x what even the rosiest of optimists thought it could achieve before the summer started.

 

Oppenheimer needs another $29.8M to reach a 4.0x multiplier domestically which would also put it at #5 on the all-time R-rated list behind Joker and #82 on the all-time list, barely behind Batman v. Superman. It's going to be tight; but given how the film has overperformed every step of the way, I can't rule it out especially with IMAX screens having plenty of openings this fall.

 

The combined Barbenheimer domestic gross will eventually be within sight of $1B which is astonishing. Both films are going to be contenders come awards season so both could see expansions this coming winter and that might be enough to push the duo into ten digit territory. Incredible to say the least.

[eddyxx]

I saw Blue Beetle today, thanks 4$ tickets, and wow that was actually fun. WB should’ve promoted that movie better and it might be doing better!

[AdrianL]

I saw Bottoms yesterday when I was in LA, had no idea it was only in 10 theaters. Very curious to see how it expands, found it pretty entertaining.

[MovieMan89]

I just really want TGM and Barbie DOM admission numbers at this point to know what gross Barbie would beat it at. It could be even lower mark than we think (or higher I guess). Will probably end up a much closer admissions gap than the infamous TDK/Avatar debate.