Weekend Thread (11/17-19) | Early Deadline #s - Songbirds 5.75-6M Previews, Trolls 2M

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, Ashley said:

If they couldn't persuade them to watch the TV shows at home when they've been out over a year then that tells me no-one is interested

We’ve all got shows we haven’t gotten round to watching that we want to watch. I’ve got absolutely tons of them. 

 

Asking people to watch shows to keep up with an overall story that’s in cinemas too is a significant ask of people.  A whole different ball game. As they’ve now found out 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

15 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

 

Honestly aside from being bad movies, the new generation of actors and actresses really lack the charisma of the original Avengers. I mean aside from the odd few, none of them original Avengers can carry movies on their own but when they were in the MCU they could at least keep the audience interested. This is why Antman 3, despite being a horrible movie, is still the second highest grossing live action CBM this year (so far). And despite Love and Thunder being a mess, I will probably still watch another movie with Chris Hemsworth being Thor, but I haven't watched 80% of the MCU and TV series that came after Endgame.

Newer movie stars in general really lack charisma. Hollywood and casting agents are dropping the ball big time. 

[Barnack]

Was it even a little bit necessary to watch shows, usually studio spend a lot of thought to reduce that kind of resistance to a maximum, specially with production of those budget.

[Mulder]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

War for the Planet of the Apes already came very close to beeing a serious underperformer. I dont see how Apes 4 can gross more than it.

 

Inside Out 2 unfortunately has a very big problem: Audiences have been trained to think by Disney that Pixar movies are now to be consumed at home on Disney+. It has the very well-liked first one going for it, but unless it also scores amazing critical and audience reviews, i dont see it performing that well.

 

Deadpool 3 seems like the safest bet.

Apes 3 underperformed because of the kind of movie it was honestly. I feel like the rep its had franchise wise has only grown and Disney put out a press release over how good the trailer did views wise which isn't common at all. I'm not saying that Apes 4'll be huge or anything, or that trailer views 100% means money (As seen with the never ending ghost of Detective Pikachu) but I do think there's a good chance for Apes 4 being a high profile 60 million opener with like a nice 500-600 WW finish.

[Cmasterclay]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Interestingly, I actually looked at exactly this data point, the 50th highest grossing film of each year, a while back, using the year of release. It was steadily in the ~$50-$70M range pre-COVID, though with the box office becoming more top heavy in the 2010s, the market share of that film was steadily in decline for nearly a decade, down to about 0.50%. As the top movies got bigger, that lower middle tier did not grow similarly

 

 

POST-COVID 50th Films

2021 - Green Knight $17.2M (0.38%)

2022 - Marry Me $22.4M (0.30%)

2023 - Currently 65 $32.1 (0.40%)

 

The value of that 50th slot will change over the rest of the year (starting Monday when Trolls jumps over that mark), but so will the total gross market share.  Something like $43M (Creator or Venice) would be my guess, but probably pretty close to that 0.50% market share. Which means the 50th place film for 2023 is still performing in line with the overall box office of the 5 years pre-COVID ... its just that the domestic market has reduced from $11B+ to somewhere around $8 billion annually.

Fascinating post. I have been tracking the number of 100m and 50m grossers to try to get a ballpark sense, but this is incredibly specific and really paints a picture within the gradients. Nicely done!!!!

[MovieMan89]

37 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Was it even a little bit necessary to watch shows, usually studio spend a lot of thought to reduce that kind of resistance to a maximum, specially with production of those budget.

The perception is there in the GAs minds that it’s necessary at least. I have had multiple friends say they’re not watching “all those shows” just to be able to see Tje Marvels. Whether it really is necessary is maybe debatable, but Disney has definitely established that perception. And it’s very bad for the movies’ success. 

[Bob Train]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

Interestingly, I actually looked at exactly this data point, the 50th highest grossing film of each year, a while back, using the year of release. It was steadily in the ~$50-$70M range pre-COVID, though with the box office becoming more top heavy in the 2010s, the market share of that film was steadily in decline for nearly a decade, down to about 0.50%. As the top movies got bigger, that lower middle tier did not grow similarly

 

 

POST-COVID 50th Films

2021 - Green Knight $17.2M (0.38%)

2022 - Marry Me $22.4M (0.30%)

2023 - Currently 65 $32.1 (0.40%)

 

The value of that 50th slot will change over the rest of the year (starting Monday when Trolls jumps over that mark), but so will the total gross market share.  Something like $43M (Creator or Venice) would be my guess, but probably pretty close to that 0.50% market share. Which means the 50th place film for 2023 is still performing in line with the overall box office of the 5 years pre-COVID ... its just that the domestic market has reduced from $11B+ to somewhere around $8 billion annually.

A part of it is the collapse of Superhero genre. In 2019, all Superhero movies combined made around $2.4b DOM. In 2018 it was $3b. This year is only $1.3b + whatever Aquaman 2 makes.

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

War for the Planet of the Apes already came very close to beeing a serious underperformer. I dont see how Apes 4 can gross more than it.

 

Inside Out 2 unfortunately has a very big problem: Audiences have been trained to think by Disney that Pixar movies are now to be consumed at home on Disney+. It has the very well-liked first one going for it, but unless it also scores amazing critical and audience reviews, i dont see it performing that well.

 

Deadpool 3 seems like the safest bet.

The darkness of War hurt it with audiences. This one seems on the surface a little lighter so that should help it. Or it's another franchise people are done with and nothing short of 90%+ positive will help it. Never know anymore.

[CloneWars]

jfc that Marvels drop

[Halberstram]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

A part of it is the collapse of Superhero genre. In 2019, all Superhero movies combined made around $2.4b DOM. In 2018 it was $3b. This year is only $1.3b + whatever Aquaman 2 makes.

How much is that per movie? 

[Sckathian]

The big question for Apes is does it retain its existing audience which I think is a big ask considering the time between films but also the third simply failed to achieve that.

 

The tone can be all the more audience friendly as they like but the numbers are pretty tight from 3 already. I think they will have a mountain to climb due to fan response to the third one - you’ve got to knock out a banger to get them onboard for an additional trilogy.

[Mulder]

4 minutes ago, Sckathian said:

The big question for Apes is does it retain its existing audience which I think is a big ask considering the time between films but also the third simply failed to achieve that.

 

The tone can be all the more audience friendly as they like but the numbers are pretty tight from 3 already. I think they will have a mountain to climb due to fan response to the third one - you’ve got to knock out a banger to get them onboard for an additional trilogy.

The 'fan response' to War was very good. It just didn't really grab anyone outside of that.

[DAJK]

5 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

not enough Marvel humor 

“He’s right behind me… isn’t he?”

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

“He’s right behind me… isn’t he?”

 

 

 

[Eric Prime]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

“He’s right behind me… isn’t he?”

You know I don’t think they ever used that joke in a Marvel movie lol

[WorkingonaName]

27 minutes ago, DAJK said:

“He’s right behind me… isn’t he?”

"UMMM we did a thing"

[MysteryMovieMogul]

7 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

I really gotta say I'm dumbfounded why this was received the way it was.

Critics see movies because it's their job. Audiences see movies because the film legitimately interests them.

Edited November 20, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 hours ago, Eric Gray Baird said:

You know I don’t think they ever used that joke in a Marvel movie lol

I think Thor 4 used it, but I'm not fully sure.

[MeMyselfAndI]

6 hours ago, CloneWars said:

jfc that Marvels drop

Does the drop actually matter?

 

Very much from very little is still very little.

[Kon]

1 hour ago, MeMyselfAndI said:

Does the drop actually matter?

 

Very much from very little is still very little.

Well, there were people who expected good legs, so the final result wouldn't be so disastrous.

 

The terrible legs would make almost impossible The Marvels makes $100M DOM.