WONKA WEEKEND THREAD | $39 million OW for WONKA | Timothee supremacy has arrived!

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Universal get what they get, There isn't a big promotional campaign surrounding Trolls 3 or Migration. They can't expect them to go exponentially bigger without much input from Universal.

 

And Trolls is gonna get over $200M WW...and possibly much more, depending how the holidays go WW.  That's nothing to sneeze at with animateds...

[M37]

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

 

0% chance you say...

I’m not willing to say 0%, but like <1% based on historical data

 

First week should finish at $48-$56M, so looking at a $180-$230M domestic total. But $500M WW seems pretty safe, and I’m not going to be surprised if Wonks gets to $600M

[MovieMan89]

How much was Heron’s OW without EA again? Like 10ish right? That would still be a fantastic 2nd true weekend drop if so 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

There you could just say it's a fricking 3rd Troll movie.The interest should go down. They should be happy with 100 million.

Well that didn’t stop them spending another $100m to make a third film and more then the second film to promote it. 

[Poseidon]

Ruling out $275 Mio for Wonka is quite odd, when Jumanji 2 multiplier already puts it at $211 Mio.

 

I guess Puss in Boots 2 was a pretty good example of what is possible with a completely deserted first 2 months in terms of kids movies.

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Well that didn’t stop them spending another $100m to make a third film and more then the second film to promote it. 

yeah because studio's never unwisely spend way more money than they should. 2023 has been a textbook example in that.

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Ruling out $275 Mio for Wonka is quite odd, when Jumanji 2 multiplier already puts it at $211 Mio.

 

I guess Puss in Boots 2 was a pretty good example of what is possible with a completely deserted first 2 months in terms of kids movies.

 

Jumanji 2 was during the height of the Movie Pass era.  You cannot expect similar multipliers vs that Christmas, when so many folks were getting practically free tickets...

 

If you were crowd-pleasing then, you got enormous business, especially in repeats...

[cannastop]

 

 

[MovieMan89]

Not touching the Wonka multi convo with a 10 foot pole until we’re well into the official holiday stretch. It’s futile. 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not touching the Wonka multi convo with a 10 foot pole until we’re well into the official holiday stretch. It’s futile. 

[joaqs]

The Holdovers inching closer and closer to 20 mil. It will lose all screens in December but hopefully it returns to theaters with Oscar noms.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

And Trolls is gonna get over $200M WW...and possibly much more, depending how the holidays go WW.  That's nothing to sneeze at with animateds...

Trolls 3 only making about $20 million more than the Woody Allen classic Antz is not great.

[nguyenkhoi282]

5 hours ago, baumer said:

 

There is a 0.0% chance that Wonka hits 275 million domestic after a 39 million dollar opening weekend.

7x doesn't seem to be that absurb of a December multiplier for this kind of movies. Sure it's among the top legs required, but I doubt it's "0.0%).

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

7x doesn't seem to be that absurb of a December multiplier for this kind of movies. Sure it's among the top legs required, but I doubt it's "0.0%).

 

One big thing, other than Moviepass, is that Jumanji opened as the "2nd holiday choice" in the wake of a huge blockbuster (Star Wars 8).  Wonka opened as a "1st holiday choice" with no huge blockbuster immediately taking away audience and screens.  In fact, it opened in a relative dead zone with enormous amounts of screens/showings.

 

The 1st case likely held down opening weekend more than a normal weekend would have.  The 2nd case would not.

[DAJK]

Not sure what’s been going on with universal’s marketing lately. Illumination buzz is literally EVERYWHERE for months before one of their films releases. To boot, with what I’m hearing about Migration being one of their better films, not to mention that this holiday is barren in terms of massive hits (Wonka TBA) I feel like there should have been a marketing blitz for this.

 

Same with Trolls… they really dropped the ball. N’Sync reunion, plus the first movie was everywhere for months before it released. No catchy song tie-in, no big merchandising… wtf is going on?

 

And now Kung Fu Panda? Sure the trailer got a lot of views, but that just shows that interest is there. Nothing about it screamed “epic” or “must see” and I have a hunch marketing is just going to Peter out until release. 140M grosser that could have done 250+. If Dreamworks does do a Shrek 5, I have my doubts it’ll do any more than 200 DOM at this point, if universal doesn’t get its act together in terms of marketing it’s animated product.

[OncomingStorm93]

33 minutes ago, DAJK said:

If Dreamworks does do a Shrek 5, I have my doubts it’ll do any more than 200 DOM at this point

That’s aspirational for OW but not impossible

[MovieMan89]

Illumination spent all of their annual marketing budget on Mario. No other explanation for leaving Migration to fend for itself when they never do that sort of thing 

[filmlover]

Pretty good starts for American Fiction and The Zone of Interest. The former is expanding to 40 theaters next weekend instead of going wide like originally planned so looks like they're waiting until after the holidays are over/we're fully into awards season to push it.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Same with Trolls… they really dropped the ball. N’Sync reunion, plus the first movie was everywhere for months before it released. No catchy song tie-in, no big merchandising… wtf is going on?

NSYNC could do appearances in the months and weeks before Trolls World Tour was relessed, but IIRC publicly performing the tie-in song was against SAG strike rules while that was going on. Also, Timberlake was the big star of the group and his ex-girlfriend's recent memoir did not paint a pretty picture. Maybe there were just enough millennial moms out there who were Team Britney, to help deflate attendance?

 

I think the PVOD success of the second movie was always a bit of a "right place, right time" phenomenon and didn't exactly prime its audience to go back to theaters.

[Mojoguy]

9 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

NSYNC could do appearances in the months and weeks before Trolls World Tour was relessed, but IIRC publicly performing the tie-in song was against SAG strike rules while that was going on. Also, Timberlake was the big star of the group and his ex-girlfriend's recent memoir did not paint a pretty picture. Maybe there were just enough millennial moms out there who were Team Britney, to help deflate attendance?

 

I think the PVOD success of the second movie was always a bit of a "right place, right time" phenomenon and didn't exactly prime its audience to go back to theaters.

Trolls 3 has half the budget of Wish and will be making more than Wish. I consider that a win.