Tina Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: More like The Woman King, b/c it's not breaking out from 25+ Black women, no matter how good it is...here, I was hoping that group would at least drag their families and friends, but that dragging seems limited (the 25 and under males number was a big warning sign that it was mom and grandma without the grandkids)... Not sure how they can advertise it into this weekend to try and break that cycle. But some marketer needs to come up with something... I think another issue is TCP is a musical. Unfortunately, many in the black community aren’t fond of musicals and apparently it wasn’t clear in the trailer. WOM is spreading and causing many to wait till streaming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: More like The Woman King, b/c it's not breaking out from 25+ Black women, no matter how good it is...here, I was hoping that group would at least drag their families and friends, but that dragging seems limited (the 25 and under males number was a big warning sign that it was mom and grandma without the grandkids)... Not sure how they can advertise it into this weekend to try and break that cycle. But some marketer needs to come up with something... cant ignore the supercharged opening day when discussing expectations for this had it released on aquaman 2 day and done 25-30 million during the 4-day then I doubt anyone would have been disappointed just dont see this having much commercial appeal outside of a few specific demos, and dont think any marketer can do much about that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said: whats ali famous 10.2 million Christmas opening day to 58.2 million dom total whats really interesting is that despite opening at 8 million less (5 million if you discount the "previews"), TCP will have a very similar 3rd day to Ali Edited December 28, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadOlCatSylvester Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, JustLurking said: sure is feeling like TCP is Ali 2.0 It's funny to see that being brought up right when its director has a new movie making the rounds. And yeah, its drops seem really bad to me, especially for the early 2000s. I guess Sony was counting on Lord of the Rings falling flat on its face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 You know where TCP went wrong? here, this exact moment 1 16 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said: It's funny to see that being brought up right when its director has a new movie making the rounds. And yeah, its drops seem really bad to me, especially for the early 2000s. I guess Sony was counting on Lord of the Rings falling flat on its face. disappointed to have a michael mann movie feel like such a non-event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: famous 10.2 million Christmas opening day to 58.2 million dom total whats really interesting is that despite opening at 8 million less (5 million if you discount the "previews"), TCP will have a very similar 3rd day to Ali AVP Requiem is even funnier with regards to its speed run. Terrible, terrible movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interiorgatordecorator Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said: AVP Requiem is even funnier with regards to its speed run. Terrible, terrible movie 4.4 off Christmas opening day and what the heck were they doing releasing avp requiem on Christmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 18 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said: Yeah, Wonka's winning the month in America too, not just overseas. I'll have to eat crow, as I seriously thought Colour Purple would win looking at the early presales. @charlie Jatinder saw it coming early, so props to him. I guess the big black communities all saw it on Christmas Day and nobody else showed up afterwards. Yep...at least not yet, 2 musicals at once really did split the musical audience down the middle, b/c while Wonka is winning December, it's still not getting close to what some folks hoped for a big breakout. I'd have thought that audience wouldn't mind seeing 2 musicals...well, maybe they don't, but they haven't yet... Then again, I saw one movie this week, and I'll watch one next week b/c nothing appeals to me much in January, so folks could stretch out movie going based on price and convenience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyB Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 50 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: TCP 4 Wonka 8.1 Migration 6.2 Aquabro 5.9 Pretty boring holiday run for all films besides Wonka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadOlCatSylvester Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: disappointed to have a michael mann movie feel like such a non-event Serious movies like this don't make much money anymore, and its reviews aren't good enough to build the word of mouth to overcome that. 9 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said: 4.4 off Christmas opening day and what the heck were they doing releasing avp requiem on Christmas day What the hell were they thinking greenlighting that at all after the lukewarm response to the first one? Just one of many bad decisions Fox made under Tom Rothman, decisions that would ultimately lead to their downfall and being devoured by The Mouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanMB Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Ali is a pretty good movie, but I think it was hurt by being more of a Michael Mann movie than a rousing feel-good sports movie that people were expecting (a B+ Cinemascore for a sports movie is pretty rough), and by being R-rated. A more conventional biopic would have flown past $100M and gotten Oscar noms up the wazoo with that kind of opening day. Pretty disappointing daily holds for Color Purple, but pre-pre-sales I think a $40-50M opening week would have looked extremely impressive (more than In the Heights and West Side Story made in their entire runs!). Aquaman's drops are pretty concerning though, even by its low epxectations; where Wonka and Migration are both above their Saturday grosses, Aquaman is now 33% below it. If it follows the daily pattern of Last Jedi through Sunday, it would have a $14.4M second weekend and a $73.2M 10-day total. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grand Cine Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 45 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: TCP 4 Wonka 8.1 Migration 6.2 Aquabro 5.9 Yikes for Aquaman 2 and TCP but good hold for Wonka and very good for Migration ( a other great run for a Universal Family Movie in holidays for the 3rd year in a row) My Estimates for Next Weekend : Wonka : 26M (+44%) 3 Days , around 35M with New Year day Migration : 18M (+45% with previews , +65% without them !!!) 3 Days , around 24M with New Year Day Aquaman 2 : 16M (-42% with previews !!!, -31% without previews) (3 Days , around 21M with New Year Day TCP : 13M 3 Days , around 17M with New Year Day PS : the drop without previews for Aquaman 2 , if my estimates are good, is worse than Star Wars 8 (-22%) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grand Cine Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, JimmyB said: Pretty boring holiday run for all films besides Wonka. Migration has really good run also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Even as someone who tried to pump the breaks on TCP - both for opening day off of presales and against the "winning December" comments - I'm pretty surprised by the rapid drop off; under $100M is very much in play With that said, because of the audience demo skew, having softer weekdays but stronger weekends relative to the field should be expected, even during the holidays. Fences for example, had a +45% Fri 12/30, while no other film in the top 10 was higher than +25%, and would expect TCP to have a similar higher Fri weekend jump In fact, if TCP were to track with Fences from here on out, off of their respective Wed numbers, TCP would grab another ~$65M (16x), and finish around $95M. I'd probably set the bar at $90M+, with $100M still possible, though looking less than 50/50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyneOh1040 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) really a shame for TCP. the crowd i saw it with on opening day ate. it. up. and i reallly thought this would catch fire but it isnt. going to need to really level out to reach 110-120. Edited December 28, 2023 by RyneOh1040 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadOlCatSylvester Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said: Yep...at least not yet, 2 musicals at once really did split the musical audience down the middle, b/c while Wonka is winning December, it's still not getting close to what some folks hoped for a big breakout. I'd have thought that audience wouldn't mind seeing 2 musicals...well, maybe they don't, but they haven't yet... Then again, I saw one movie this week, and I'll watch one next week b/c nothing appeals to me much in January, so folks could stretch out movie going based on price and convenience... I don't think many were expecting a mega breakout for Wonka, as it's the third adaptation of an old-time literary character, one that today's kids might not know or see as lame if they do. With that in mind, it's still making a lot more than I was expecting it to, and it has an easy path to $200M with Colour Purple not being the threat it was seen to be, and therefore not having much demographical competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: You know where TCP went wrong? here, this exact moment I apologize to everyone. I will go back to my old ways with future releases. 6 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: TCP 4 Wonka 8.1 Migration 6.2 Aquabro 5.9 FUCK OFF WHAT THE HELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 29 minutes ago, JimmyB said: Pretty boring holiday run for all films besides Wonka. Migration's number isn't boring. It's gonna have perhaps the best legs of a wide release this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
