Weekend Numbers | actuals | 80.01M G×K: THE NEW EMPIRE | 11.35M DUNE II

[M37]

Posted this in the weekday thread on accident

 

Given the whispers of a potential $30M TFri for GxK, here are the highest single day grosses (excluding previews) since August of last year (following Barbie's second weekend)

• ERAS (Fri 10/13) = $34.87M
• ERAS (Sat 10/14) = $32.23M
• FNAF (Fri 10/27) = $29.35M
• Dune II (Sat 3/02) = $28.71M
• FNAF (Sat 10/28) = $24.28M
• ERAS (Sun 10/15) = $23.32M
• KFP4 (Sat 3/09) = $22.85M

That's the entire list, nothing else over $22M, and three of those were a for an event priced and incredibly fan heavy release (also with no weekday showings (so all business gets crammed into and inflates weekend). 

 

GxK has a decent chance to top all except ERAS on Good Friday.  Will also become the 9th highest grossing release of the year after one day, and then be batting GBFE for 4th place for the year by end of the weekend

[Arlborn]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

Posted this in the weekday thread on accident

 

Given the whispers of a potential $30M TFri for GxK, here are the highest single day grosses (excluding previews) since August of last year (following Barbie's second weekend)

• ERAS (Fri 10/13) = $34.87M
• ERAS (Sat 10/14) = $32.23M
• FNAF (Fri 10/27) = $29.35M
• Dune II (Sat 3/02) = $28.71M
• FNAF (Sat 10/28) = $24.28M
• ERAS (Sun 10/15) = $23.32M
• KFP4 (Sat 3/09) = $22.85M

That's the entire list, nothing else over $22M, and three of those were a for an event priced and incredibly fan heavy release (also with no weekday showings (so all business gets crammed into and inflates weekend). 

 

GxK has a decent chance to top all except ERAS on Good Friday.  Will also become the 9th highest grossing release of the year after one day, and then be batting GBFE for 4th place for the year by end of the weekend

I keep forgetting how big ERAS’ first weekend was for something that came out of nowhere.

 

 

List is a bit depressing to look at by the way, the market has been a bit weak for so long. This month is such  a pleasant surprise.

[Cmasterclay]

2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

i've been surprised people were kinda down on this movie's prospects for a while. from when the trailer dropped it felt like the hype was there.

I def felt a surprising buzz after the trailer, I just didn't see the hook for this one compared to any of the others. I really felt they blew their wad on Godzilla v Kong being a day and date release and this would revert closer to KOTM levels. Still turns out Godzilla and Kong did blow their wad together, though.

[CoolioD1]

My dad took my mum to see the Lord of the Rings musical on the west end (never made it over to broadway I believe) for her birthday in 2007. She was so mad about that. 

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

After the complete and utter disaster of The Rings of Power, id imagine Tolkien fans either are extremely sceptical now of anything Middle-Earth related that is coming out or maybe in the contrary, will strongly support this movie if its good ofc and respects the lore. I could see both happening.

 

This coming from WB and loving the Ralph Bakshi animation, I'm definitely giving it a shot without yet knowing anything about it. Maybe it can be palette cleanser after the Amazon Studios crap.

[Cmasterclay]

2 hours ago, TMP said:

Idk, Godzilla ‘14 definitely felt like it was trying to build tension, but the whole enterprise just felt so inert. There was a sense of scale, but it was never coupled with a sense of dramatic urgency like Cloverfield or Minus One had. It felt like a lot of nicely composed images that never signified much, but I also find Edwards to be one of the most dramatically inert directors in Hollywood right now so maybe i’m biased lol

Oh I definitely agree with this, and find both Cloverfield and Minus One to be masterpieces next to Godzilla 2014. I was even quite disappointed in Rogue One when it dropped despite admiring much about it compared to the typical Disney visual formula. I agree about the inertness, but I also thought the same about the first of the Dune movies. I think that Godzilla 14 just had such admirable visual and directorial stylings at a time when things felt particularly low in that regard - near the horrendous Jurassic World and Meg type movies. At least Edwards seemed to be TRYING not to make a TV movie.

[DAJK]

Since people are starting to talk about May, I’m going to throw my hat in the ring with some predictions.

Omen - 10/25

Monkey Man - 15/45

Civil War - 25/60

Ministry of Guy Ritchie - 6/15

Challengers - 12/30

Fall Guy - 60/185

Apes - 36/100

If - 28/90

Garfield - 45/150

Furiosa - 40/120

Bad Boys - 50/130

Inside Out - 125/400

Bikeriders - 10/35

Horizon 1 - 25/70

Quiet Place - 50/130

Despicable Me - 80/115/325

Twisters - 55/150

Deadpool - 160/420

Harold and the Crayon - 11/35

Borderlands - 18/45

Alien - 30/80

Horizon 2 - 20/60

Kraven - 30/60

 

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I keep forgetting how big ERAS’ first weekend was for something that came out of nowhere.

 

 

List is a bit depressing to look at by the way, the market has been a bit weak for so long. This month is such  a pleasant surprise.

Eras felt like a disappointment by the time it opened 🙂 Opening day presales were at Endgame level. 

[Eric the IF]

30 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Why would it be a musical?

 

[Cmasterclay]

Doesn't it feel like if Horizon was really good we would have at least heard whispers by now? That's usually how it goes, especially when Ruimy and EmpireCity types are ready to declare masterpiece at the first positive word. I think it looks terrific, I'm excited for it, Open Range is awesome etc. But I feel like we would have had some sort of "it's so good" buzz or Cannes premiere or something by now. Maybe Costner is just a part of a different crowd, though.

[Eric the IF]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Since people are starting to talk about May, I’m going to throw my hat in the ring with some predictions.

Omen - 10/25

Monkey Man - 15/45

Civil War - 25/60

Ministry of Guy Ritchie - 6/15

Challengers - 12/30

Fall Guy - 60/185

Apes - 36/100

If - 28/90

Garfield - 45/150

Furiosa - 40/120

Bad Boys - 50/130

Inside Out - 125/400

Bikeriders - 10/35

Horizon 1 - 25/70

Quiet Place - 50/130

Despicable Me - 80/115/325

Twisters - 55/150

Deadpool - 160/420

Harold and the Crayon - 11/35

Borderlands - 18/45

Alien - 30/80

Horizon 2 - 20/60

Kraven - 30/60

 

Generally agree with most of this. Though probably gonna aim a bit higher on Despicable Me and Twisters (DM4 is definitely the strongest contender to unseat Inside Out 2 for movie of the summer IMO), and lower on Deadpool (superheroes are box office poison now 👀)

[James]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think WB have a good year ahead tbh 

 

Barbie was a phenomenon. Wonka and Dune 2 are highly solid hits and seems like GxK is coming to a similar result. 
 

Furiosa shouldn’t reach this heights but it should do well enough with ~400M, which is decent considering the budget is rumoured to be around 150M. If it can get out of Cannes with great reviews I bet it will do well.
 

Joker will be big no matter what, maybe not Joker 1 big, but very big. 
 

The LOTR animated movie should do very well not only because it’s a Christmas release but because it’s a very stable franchise, just look at all 3 hobbits doing around 1B despite being meh. Being an animation will prevent it from those numbers but it’s probably a lot less expensive as well.
 

Even the 1-2 punch of the Shyamalan’s should do well since they’re horror and not expensive. 
 

Beetlejuice seems to be the tricky one but it’s not an overbudgeted movie and the reports are that the movie is decent so it can do well enough. 
 

Sure if we count things like the Costner movies than it gets difficult, but it’s his own movies, the distribution is between them and New Line. I wouldn’t count it as a WB joint.

 

But yeah, very solid slate and full of actually potentially great movies from celebrated directors.

This. Aside from the Costner movie everything else is decently budgeted and pretty much risk free (yes, even Joker; 200m or not, even if the movie is bad, and the rumour is it’s the exact opposite, it will make back its money in a week max).

Edited March 29 by James

[Eric the IF]

24 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I don’t think Furiosa bombs but it’s gonna be lower than Fall Guy, Apes, and Garfield IMO. If WOM is strong it can have a leggy run.

I love Anya and I have no problem with Miller's creative decisions, but I do wonder if Furiosa would be looking a lot better in terms of buzz and hype if Charlize was reprising her role again. Kinda feels like a Solo situation, and at least that was still part of the biggest sci-fi movie franchise of all time.

[Maggie]

Horizon looks awesome. I hope for a breakout.

[von Kenni]

3 hours ago, Hatebox said:

Why is Kong so big? I thought trailer was garbage but I guess it was just the right big dumb movie at the right time? 

 

Yeah, seeing the trailer in IMAX before doing gave the same vibe as the last Transformers. Especially the moment "we made some upgrades" make me feel

 

 

But I have to say that I'm warming up a bit and maybe the unadulterated monster bashing could be fun.

 

I left my Godzilla for the 90s version with Matthew Broderick which was the first film ever for me that I used fasforwarding on vhs player for a movie. I always had a rule that if I start to watch a movie I watch it completely regardless of quality. Godzilla was the first one that I couldn't finish. Even Independence Day was a work of art compared to it.

 

Maybe time to give a second chance.

 

PS. Seeing the mayor scene on GBFE on its IMAX trailer had the same feeling. They really drove that IP off a cliff when they diverged from GB 3.

 

Furiosa was beautiful but I remain skeptical. Can go either way.

[von Kenni]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Horizon looks awesome. I hope for a breakout.

Yeah, now that we got Dune out, Horizon is what I'm most waiting this year. I hope Costner's life experience and love for the genre pays off. Wishing the stars align.

[Cmasterclay]

I have a good friend who saw the test screening of Furiosa last month. This was the same screening that WorldOfReel reported an "overwhelmingly positive" reaction. My friend, who loveeeees Fury Road, said to tamp down quality expectations considerably and that the movie was a bit inert and a bit of a mess. I was obviously upset to hear this, but that's the word I got.  I think the person Ruimy reported on that had an overwhelmingly positive response did indeed love it and found others that did, and my friend who was disappointed and felt others there were a bit eh on it also had the experience they had. Both totally valid and true experiences, but either one can be used to shape a narrative. I'll just say that based on this divergence I'm not expecting universally praised rapturous masterpiece like Fury Road was.

[JonathanMB]

24 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Doesn't it feel like if Horizon was really good we would have at least heard whispers by now? That's usually how it goes, especially when Ruimy and EmpireCity types are ready to declare masterpiece at the first positive word. I think it looks terrific, I'm excited for it, Open Range is awesome etc. But I feel like we would have had some sort of "it's so good" buzz or Cannes premiere or something by now. Maybe Costner is just a part of a different crowd, though.

 

It's still three months away, there hasn't been much buzz on anything past Furiosa, which WB is gonna work on getting the hype train started for now that GxK is up and running. Also they already have LCJ hyping it up: 

 

 

[DAJK]

25 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Generally agree with most of this. Though probably gonna aim a bit higher on Despicable Me and Twisters (DM4 is definitely the strongest contender to unseat Inside Out 2 for movie of the summer IMO), and lower on Deadpool (superheroes are box office poison now 👀)

My justification for Twisters is I'm basically predicting a San Andreas run lol.

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I have a good friend who saw the test screening of Furiosa last month. This was the same screening that WorldOfReel reported an "overwhelmingly positive" reaction. My friend, who loveeeees Fury Road, said to tamp down quality expectations considerably and that the movie was a bit inert and a bit of a mess. I was obviously upset to hear this, but that's the word I got.  I think the person Ruimy reported on that had an overwhelmingly positive response did indeed love it and found others that did, and my friend who was disappointed and felt others there were a bit eh on it also had the experience they had. Both totally valid and true experiences, but either one can be used to shape a narrative. I'll just say that based on this divergence I'm not expecting universally praised rapturous masterpiece like Fury Road was.

Tbh i do think loving Fury Road too much is maybe the problem for your friend and should be a problem going forward to a portion of the audience. 
 

Miller did said the movie is less action oriented, uses time very differently etc. 
 

Following Fury Road is hard enough, but for people hoping for a similar experience maybe it will be simply impossible to not be disappointed while watching something else. 
 

I’m not sure this means reviews will be divisive or audience reception will be bad because the franchise had a history of changing it’s tone each movie, but i do think there’ll be some discourse around it especially from people who loveeeees Fury Road a bit too much, which i’m sure is a lot of people.