Weekend estimates | 31.70M GODZILLA × KONG: TNE | 10.10M MONKEY MAN | 9.00M GHOSTBUSTERS: FE | 8.36M THE FIRST OMEN | 7.85M KFP IV | 7.20M DUNE II

[emoviefan]

You know what I am going to keep going to the movies as long as theaters  are open and movies are being released which I look at the near future is going to keep happening.  Isn't this the way it's been for awhile now. Us movie buffs/freaks go to the movies frequently as possible and the GA/casuals go or used to go about 5 times a year or so now it's probably 2 or 3 times a year post covid Hence why box office is down.

[Krissykins]

Seeing Godzilla x Kong this afternoon in IMAX 2D. Looking forward to it. 

[Justin]

5 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

It sucks that GxK isn't going to finish above Godzilla 2014. After all the hoopla from it's opening weekend. I wanted another movie above 200M DOM, boo!

Woah a bit too early to predict that. It still has a chance since this month is so empty for new releases. But yeah it sucks though if that mediocre af film is still the highest grossing DOM. 

Edited April 7 by Justin

[charlie Jatinder]

GxK looked like 13M+ last I checked

[Flopped]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

GxK looked like 13M+ last I checked

 

can you tell us about omen, pls

[marveldcfox]

49 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

GxK looked like 13M+ last I checked

Was hoping 15+  and another 12+ Sunday

 

35+ 2nd weekend 

 

Now 30+ 2nd weekend 

[Hatebox]

8 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

My instincts agree, but honestly most of the people I know who scoff at me going to the movie theaters are professional types with wife and kids that I work or volunteer with. The middle class, 30-60 year old professional crowd lives on Amazon and Netflix tbh. All my work colleagues are wait for streaming on everything, but my high school age niece and her little friends still like going to the movies for something to do. They're much more casual moviegoers than grownups now honestly.

middle class dad here: can confirm. None of us are talking about what we saw at the cinema recently, we’re talking about what good shows we caught on streaming. The last two times I went to the cinema since the summer was to see the paw patrol movie and migration (FML).
 

I think barbenheimer broke people’s brains a bit. Nothing’s actually changed

Edited April 7 by Hatebox

[M37]

A $13M+ Sat for GxK would be a $30M+ second weekend, drop over 60% yes off a holiday but also while retaining PLFs. Can be more certain in another week or two, but looking to end up very close to $200M total, may not get all the way there. 

 

Also don’t think KFP4 gets to $200M. Needs another $42M, off a $16.7M last week (3.5x), which would require stringing together sub-30% holds, when there hasn’t been a single one 

 

Final Estimates (+/-5%)

GxK = $203M

KFP4 = $193M

[MightyDargon]

Please stop with the "middle class dad" anecdotes. They're essentially the equivalent of political stuff in the Civil War thread and make it even harder to determine what is factually occurring. 

[wildphantom]

I feel like we’re in denial that the passage of time has somehow meant that the movies which dominated thirty years ago weren’t still largely attended by the younger demo set.  Strictly under 40’s appealing movies. 
 

Go back and look at the top thirty grossing movies through the 90’s every year and you’ll see the same picture. 
 

The fact we’ve got less releases coming out at the moment is the major factor for me.  Placing unrealistic expectations on a low budget Dev Patel actioner, when in fact it’s just the equivalent of something like Wesley Snipes in Drop Zone was in 1994. Nobody was crying that it only made $28 million (although if the forums had existed back then maybe we would be! lol)
 

I also think if you’d made a prequel to a film from the late 40’s in the mid 90’s then you’d have gotten similar box office results to The First Omen. 

Making a new film in a series that’s 40 plus years old is a gamble. Is it still relevant to the age group that actually go to theatres? Exorcist is because that has stood the test of time in pop culture. Has The Omen? Did they even really try and connect to it in the marketing? If not did it have an actor/actress that appeals to a new audience at its centre? 
 

Product is everything. We shouldn’t necessarily be shining blame on older audiences not coming out for films aimed at them when they wouldn’t have come out at the same age decades ago either. 
 

 

Edited April 7 by wildphantom

[MightyDargon]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

A $13M+ Sat for GxK would be a $30M+ second weekend, drop over 60% yes off a holiday but also while retaining PLFs. Can be more certain in another week or two, but looking to end up very close to $200M total, may not get all the way there. 

 

Also don’t think KFP4 gets to $200M. Needs another $42M, off a $16.7M last week (3.5x), which would require stringing together sub-30% holds, when there hasn’t been a single one 

 

Final Estimates (+/-5%)

GxK = $203M

KFP4 = $193M

Panda won't hit 200 mil because theaters won't hold it that long. The incentive becomes more limited the older the movie is and BIG movies will show up to eat its screens considerably before Garfield. So it DOES have competition even though people here love repeating the "no competitor until Garfield" theory since older movies will ultimately lose screens to something.

[vafrow]

I saw Monkey Man last night. I really enjoyed it a lot. It feels like it was a movie made for me in a lot of ways. Dev Patel did a phenomenal job. I really hope he keeps on directing.

 

It's a shame it's not doing well. But, you can easily see all the reasons why it wouldn't resonate with general audiences.

 

Still, Dev Patel managed to get a major studio to release a film with a largely unknown Indian cast. He's got to show off his chops as an action star and a director. The only real loser in this deal is probably Netflix who sold this film at a loss (unless they managed to keep the streaming rights).

 

I'll take it for those positives.

[cookieleeann]

Honestly if I had my own family, the sad unfortunate truth is I don't think I would go to the movies frequently at all. It's just too expensive and streaming has made it easier for families to wait for a film at home rather than spend loads of money on a single IMAX ticket that cost almost $20 each In my city. 

 

I recently found some old ticket stubs from 2012 & a 2D ticket was like $8 at one of my local theaters. Now it's $15 for 2D & $18 for IMAX .That really adds up. I just can't blame people for being picky these days. Growing up in the 90s tickets were just so cheap, we were heading to the movies every weekend for family time. Now everyone I know barely goes unless it's some event type thing like Barbenheimer or Dune. 

 

I'll always prefer the theater experience but again, I understand why others don't. 

[Hatebox]

27 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Please stop with the "middle class dad" anecdotes. They're essentially the equivalent of political stuff in the Civil War thread and make it even harder to determine what is factually occurring. 

easy tiger. The shitty revenue trends are what they are, we’re all going to have our own perceptions as to why. Discussing them is half the point of this forum 

 

Edited April 7 by Hatebox

[Cookson]

Family of four(wife and 2 kids). Going to the theater is a special occasion for us. I’d say our average is like 4 trips a year. This year will be GxK(already watched), Mufasa and Sonic 3. That 4th film is up in the air still. Kids have expressed interest in KotPotA so that might be the one. Everything else we just catch on streaming eventually. Everything is just too expensive. We bought imax tickets for GxK and with some candy, drinks and 4 hot dogs it was(including tickets) $150. 
 

Anyway, too early to call GxK not making 200m. It could have a decent hold next weekend like 40-45% coming off a “normal” weekend. 

Edited April 7 by Cookson

[M37]

17 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Panda won't hit 200 mil because theaters won't hold it that long. The incentive becomes more limited the older the movie is and BIG movies will show up to eat its screens considerably before Garfield. So it DOES have competition even though people here love repeating the "no competitor until Garfield" theory since older movies will ultimately lose screens to something.

But it’s the only real family movie, so will be held mostly by default. Migration was still in 2400 locations in week 11, before KDP4 came out. The overall release schedule will be stronger (Migration was still top 6 that week!), so wouldn’t bank on that number, but should have no problem keeping 2000+ through April, maybe ~1500 until late May 

[MightyDargon]

3 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

easy tiger. The shitty revenue trends are what they are, we’re all going to have our own perceptions as to why. Discussing them is half the point of this forum 

 

Anecdotes really aren't helpful in any sort of analytical sense though. "Movie declined/rose by x amount" is but that always gets covered up by "middle class dad/politics" blathering. 

[Hatebox]

2 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Anecdotes really aren't helpful in any sort of analytical sense though. "Movie declined/rose by x amount" is but that always gets covered up by "middle class dad/politics" blathering. 

its all blathering, dude. Every single post on here 

[MightyDargon]

Just now, M37 said:

But it’s the only real family movie, so will be held mostly by default. Migration was still in 2400 locations in week 11, before KDP4 came out. The overall release schedule will be stronger (Migration was still top 6 that week!), so wouldn’t bank on that number, but should have no problem keeping 2000+ through April, maybe ~1500 until late May 

I'm very skeptical it will have that many through May. There's enough movies that have oomph from the distributors that Panda will be low priority to keep screens. The reason Migration could hold those screens was because it was a Christmas movie going into a dead zone. Going by BOM April 5 it looks like Panda's PSA is actually lower than Dune's so it's ability to hold has actually considerably weakened already. By 1st week of May most theaters will be trying to kick the March releases out if they haven't already.

[M37]

Why none of the MTCs have yet to roll out a Family Rewards/Discount program in some form is beyond me. Just seems like a total missed opportunity to create future frequent moviegoers