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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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9 minutes ago, TheKillerAngel said:

How well do you think Your Name will hold against Star Trek Beyond? If I'm going to use Star Trek Into Darkness's performance in Japan as a baseline (earned about 200m JPY in its first weekend), I estimate a 300m JPY opening weekend absolute maximum, and probably less.

Star Trek will have no effect on Your Name.

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10 minutes ago, TheKillerAngel said:

How well do you think Your Name will hold against Star Trek Beyond? If I'm going to use Star Trek Into Darkness's performance in Japan as a baseline (earned about 200m JPY in its first weekend), I estimate a 300m JPY opening weekend absolute maximum, and probably less.

 

Star Trek will have no effect on Your Name.

 

Edit: I swear I didn't see the post that was made immediately before mine when I wrote this.

Edited by Tower
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On 10/19/2016 at 3:22 PM, eXtacy said:

Funimation has announced "Your Name" US release date will be in 2017, probably sometime in the first quater. The only reason they would be taking so long is perhaps they are seeking a quality dub cast. Anyway with no real release date this year it will definitely miss the awards season which is a shame as it would likely win best animated picture Oscar.

 

Anything on Straya? 

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The Japanese box office this year has been killer to track!  Everything from Star Wars' phenomenal performance, Zootopia's mini-Frozen run, a bombastic summer, to Your Name, and Shin Godzilla's unprecedented runs!  Seems as though Japan's entire year has been what the winter and spring were like for the U.S office with Star Wars, Kung-Fu Panda 3, Deadpool, and Zootopia to name a few.  And to my knowledge, this would mark the first year since 2010 that the Top 10 boasted TWO Y10 billion grossing films (2010 had 3)!  Additionally, the Top 10 boasts EIGHT Y5+ billion grossing films, defeating both 2015 and 2010 which had 7 films cross the blockbuster mark. 

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Weekend Estimates (10/22-23)
01 (01) ¥491,000,000 ($4.8 million), +05%, ¥16,300,000,000 ($158.1 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK9
02 (---) ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), Star Trek Beyond (Paramount) NEW
03 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥140,000,000 ($1.2 million), Ushijima the Loan Shark - Finale (SPD) NEW
04 (02) ¥127,000,000 ($1.2 million), -30%, ¥500,000,000 ($4.7 million), Somebody (Toho) WK2
05 (---) ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), Gold Medal Man (Showgate) NEW
06 (03) ¥102,000,000 ($1.0 million), -33%, ¥1,225,000,000 ($11.9 million), Jason Bourne (Toho-Towa) WK3
07 (04) ¥88,000,000 ($855,000), -26%, ¥835,000,000 ($8.1 million), High & Low: The Red Rain (Shochiku) WK3
08 (05) ¥68,000,000 ($660,000), -20%, ¥1,900,000,000 ($18.3 million), A Silent Voice (Shochiku) WK6
09 (07) ¥34,000,000 ($330,000), -33%, ¥1,250,000,000 ($12.0 million), Sully (Warner Bros.) WK5
10 (06) ¥36,000,000 ($350,000), -47%, ¥190,000,000 ($1.7 million), Gantz: 0 (Toho Video Division) WK2


>Your Name. effortlessly claims its ninth-consecutive week atop the box office this weekend, and managed to increase over last weekend, too, despite no holiday support or discount days to take advantage of.

Makoto Shinkai's uber-blockbuster surpassed both Ponyo and Avatar before heading into the weekend frame, becoming the ninth-highest grossing film of all-time, and is closing in on the all-time top 10 attended films of all-time with over 12 million admission. After this weekend, it likely exceeded 12.5 million admissions (#12/13 all-time).

>Star Trek Beyond didn't perform as well as pre-sales indicated, and unless estimates are significatly off and/or its avg. ticket price is notably high, it probably debuted below Star Trek Into Darkness. According to my estimates, it's going to be down 18/19% compared to its predecessor - not bad, but a little disappointing considering how frequent franchise records have fallen the past couple years in the market.

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Most-Consecutive Weeks at #1 [1998-]

16 - Frozen [Mar. 15-16 to June 28-29] (2014)
16 - Spirited Away [July 21-22 to Nov. 03-04] (2001)
14 - Armageddon [Dec. 12-13 to Mar. 13-14] (1998-1999)
10 - Avatar [Dec. 26-27 to Feb. 27-28] (2009-2010)
9 - Your Name. [Aug. 26-27 to Oct. 22-23 Ongoing] (2016-Present)
9 - Howl's Moving Castle [Nov. 20-21 to Jan. 15-16] (2004-2005)
9 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! [July 19-20 to Sept. 13-14] (2003)
9 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets [Nov. 23-24 to Jan. 18-19] (2002-2003)
9 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone [Dec. 01-02 to Jan. 26-27] (2001-2002)
9 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace [July 10-11 to Sept. 04-05] (1999)
8 - The Eternal Zero [Dec. 21-22 to Feb. 08-09] (2013-2014)
8 - The Wind Rises [July 20-21 to Sept. 07-08] (2013)
7 - Alice in Wonderland [Apr. 17-18 to May 29-30] (2010)
7 - Hero [Sept. 08-09 to Oct. 20-21] (2007)
7 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King [Feb. 14-15 to Mar. 27-28] (2004)
7 - Spider-Man [May 11-12 to June 22-23] (2002)
6 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides [May 21-22 to June 25-26] (2011)
6 - Umizaru: The Last Message [Sept. 18-19 to Oct. 23-24] (2010)
6 - 20th Century Boys: The Last Chapter [Aug. 29-30 to Oct. 03-04] (2009)
6 - Ponyo [July 19-20 to Aug. 23-24] (2008)
6 - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [Mar. 03-04 to Apr. 08-09] (2006)
6 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [Nov. 26-27 to Jan. 07-08] (2005-2006)
6 - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith [July 09-10 to Aug. 13-14] (2005)
6 - Monsters, Inc. [Mar. 09-10 to Apr. 13-14] (2002)
6 - The Sixth Sense [Oct. 30-31 to Dec. 04-05] (1999)
6 - The Matrix [Sept. 11-12 to Oct. 16-17] (1999)
6+


Your Name. has effortlessly remained atop the box office for a remarkable ninth consecutive week now, but can it managed 10 or more? The newest Death Note film opens next weekend, and will prove to be Your Name's biggest challenger for the top spot so far.

I said weeks ago that as long as it's still making over ¥500 million at this point, then a tenth week at #1 would be likely - and if that happens, it'll likely stay at #1 throughout most of November, too. However, it fell below that figure last weekend (¥468 million), but thanks to an increase this weekend, it's very close to ¥500 million again based on estimates. It's probably going to be a very close battle next weekend.
 
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Actuals for Your Name; 476MYen 9th Weekend (+2%!)- 16,4Byen total, #9 all time. Next steps are HP2 at 17,3BYen and Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! at 17,35Byen. 

Should be the third biggest 9th weekend ever behind Frozen (738M) and SA (650M).

 

Even if is almost certain that YN won't beat Frozen anyway, I think its run is more incredible: YN is the perfect from zero to hero, while Frozen, altough an original in itself, at the time of release here was already a super successful movie with oscars, golden globe, billion WW, mega hit soundtrack and a merchandising/promotion war machine.

Edited by edroger3
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I'm really curious to see Your Name, now. The people who are incredibly positive towards it are warring with my own impression of Shinkai's films:which has tended to be that he's a good director, but there's nothing of his that I've seen that I'd call great.

 

However, despite that positive response, Funimation is correct to wait until next year to release it. In the tight field that exists this year, sneaking in as a nominee would be incredibly hard, even with the Japanese box office run. I'm actually not so hot on its chances next year, regardless of perceived quality. Even ignoring the fact that no Japanese film has got a nomination unless it had some association with Ghibli, I think there's a case that the distributor may matter. Boy and the Beast missing out last year might have been in part because Funimation doesn't have the presence for an awards run in comparison to GKIDS, and that might weigh against YN. 

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