It | Sept. 8, 2017 | Warner Brothers | Andy Muschietti directing. Trailer on Page 12 NO SPOILER DISCUSSION. Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

For the opening weekend, many would.

 

There is a reason they had a so late embargo, they also consider that reviews for a movie like that do not matter much.

 

Try this exercise, take the 450 last wide release and their RT score, look at the correlation between the 2, I think you will be shock on how little it seem to even have a correlation.

With big blockbusters? Yes, they have a correlation. 

[heynow]

I am new at tracking opening boxioffice predictions.  I would appreciate any information on how this data is tracked.

[WeneedtotalkaboutKevin]

2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

This film so reminds me of Wonder Woman. The people who were craving bad reviews must be so devastated right now. I think 70+mil is for sure happening.

     Damn it !!! I just made a OW/DOM/WW   40/100/300  prediction !!!!!

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

With big blockbusters? Yes, they have a correlation. 

Yes it has, like I said it does, but you would be shock by how little it can seem to have.

 

Last year wide release, RT score vs OW:

 

Spoiler

Movie Title (click to view)	RT score	Opening / Theaters
Captain America: Civil War	0.9	$179,139,142.00
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	0.27	$166,007,347.00
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	0.85	$155,081,681.00
Finding Dory	0.94	$135,060,273.00
Suicide Squad	0.25	$133,682,248.00
Deadpool	0.84	$132,434,639.00
The Secret Life of Pets	0.74	$104,352,905.00
The Jungle Book (2016)	0.95	$103,261,464.00
Doctor Strange	0.9	$85,058,311.00
Zootopia	0.98	$75,063,401.00
Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	0.73	$74,403,387.00
X-Men: Apocalypse	0.48	$65,769,562.00
Star Trek Beyond	0.84	$59,253,211.00
Jason Bourne	0.55	$59,215,365.00
Moana	0.96	$56,631,401.00
Trolls	0.74	$46,581,142.00
Ghostbusters (2016)	0.73	$46,018,755.00
Kung Fu Panda 3	0.87	$41,282,042.00
Independence Day: Resurgence	0.31	$41,039,944.00
The Conjuring 2	0.8	$40,406,314.00
The Legend of Tarzan	0.35	$38,527,856.00
The Angry Birds Movie	0.44	$38,155,177.00
Central Intelligence	0.69	$35,535,250.00
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows	0.38	$35,316,382.00
Sing	0.73	$35,258,145.00
Ride Along 2	0.14	$35,243,095.00
Sully	0.85	$35,028,301.00
The Magnificent Seven (2016)	0.63	$34,703,397.00
Sausage Party	0.82	$34,263,534.00
The Purge: Election Year	0.55	$31,515,110.00
The Divergent Series: Allegiant	0.12	$29,027,348.00
Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children	0.63	$28,871,140.00
Boo! A Madea Halloween	0.21	$28,501,448.00
Alice Through the Looking Glass	0.3	$26,858,726.00
Don't Breathe	0.87	$26,411,706.00
10 Cloverfield Lane	0.9	$24,727,437.00
The Accountant	0.52	$24,710,273.00
The Girl on the Train (2016)	0.43	$24,536,265.00
Warcraft	0.28	$24,166,110.00
Arrival	0.94	$24,074,047.00
Bad Moms	0.58	$23,817,340.00
The Boss	0.22	$23,586,645.00
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	0.37	$22,872,490.00
Now You See Me 2	0.34	$22,383,146.00
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising	0.62	$21,760,405.00
Lights Out	0.76	$21,688,103.00
London Has Fallen	0.25	$21,635,601.00
Pete's Dragon (2016)	0.87	$21,514,095.00
Ice Age: Collision Course	0.15	$21,373,064.00
Storks	0.63	$21,311,407.00
Barbershop: The Next Cut	0.9	$20,242,415.00
Deepwater Horizon	0.84	$20,223,544.00
The Huntsman: Winter's War	0.17	$19,445,035.00
The BFG	0.74	$18,775,350.00
Me Before You	0.58	$18,723,269.00
How to Be Single	0.47	$17,878,911.00
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2	0.29	$17,861,950.00
Office Christmas Party	0.41	$17,500,000.00
The Shallows	0.77	$16,800,868.00
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates	0.35	$16,628,170.00
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	0.5	$16,194,738.00
Hacksaw Ridge	0.87	$15,190,758.00
Almost Christmas	0.49	$15,134,235.00
Passengers (2016)	0.31	$14,869,736.00
Inferno	0.19	$14,860,425.00
Miracles from Heaven	0.43	$14,812,393.00
Money Monster	0.57	$14,788,157.00
War Dogs	0.59	$14,685,305.00
When the Bough Breaks	0.12	$14,202,323.00
Gods of Egypt	0.15	$14,123,903.00
Ouija: Origin of Evil	0.83	$14,065,500.00
Zoolander 2	0.23	$13,841,146.00
The Forest	0.1	$12,741,176.00
Allied	0.6	$12,701,743.00
Kubo and the Two Strings	0.97	$12,608,372.00
Risen	0.51	$11,801,271.00
Kevin Hart: What Now?	0.76	$11,767,210.00
Hail, Caesar!	0.85	$11,355,225.00
Ben-Hur (2016)	0.25	$11,203,815.00
The Nice Guys	0.92	$11,203,270.00
Dirty Grandpa	0.11	$11,111,875.00
Why Him?	0.4	$11,002,986.00
The Boy (2016)	0.27	$10,778,392.00
The 5th Wave	0.16	$10,326,356.00
The Finest Hours	0.63	$10,288,932.00
Assassin's Creed	0.18	$10,278,225.00
Blair Witch	0.35	$9,576,057.00
Keanu	0.77	$9,453,224.00
Nerve	0.66	$9,445,456.00
The Witch	0.91	$8,800,230.00
Bridget Jones's Baby	0.76	$8,571,785.00
Mother's Day	0.07	$8,369,184.00
Snowden	0.61	$8,000,058.00
God's Not Dead 2	0.09	$7,623,662.00
Free State of Jones	0.47	$7,572,206.00
Mechanic: Resurrection	0.31	$7,456,525.00
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot	0.67	$7,450,275.00
Race (2016)	0.61	$7,353,922.00
Collateral Beauty	0.13	$7,102,085.00
The Birth of a Nation	0.72	$7,004,254.00
Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life	0.58	$6,878,437.00
Norm of the North	0.09	$6,844,137.00
Masterminds (2016)	0.34	$6,541,205.00
Nine Lives (2016)	0.12	$6,249,915.00
Bad Santa 2	0.23	$6,176,680.00
Triple 9	0.53	$6,109,085.00
Eddie the Eagle	0.8	$6,084,682.00
The Choice	0.12	$6,050,443.00
Fifty Shades of Black	0.07	$5,900,528.00
Criminal (2016)	0.3	$5,767,278.00
Keeping Up with the Joneses	0.19	$5,461,475.00
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies	0.43	$5,324,240.00
Hardcore Henry	0.5	$5,107,604.00
Ratchet & Clank	0.17	$4,869,278.00
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping	0.77	$4,698,715.00
Shut In	0.06	$3,613,567.00
The Wild Life (2016)	0.4	$3,342,696.00
The Brothers Grimsby	0.36	$3,258,327.00
Max Steel	0	$2,182,216.00
Morgan	0.4	$2,012,709.00
Rules Don't Apply	0.55	$1,589,625.00

 

Give me around 0.33, for a reference trailers views with opening weekend for wide release give me a correlation of around 0.85 for something many claims has no correlation at all with box office....

 

Not RT score will tend to be higher for larger budget movie, larger budget movie tend to have larger marketing and be in franchises, corrected for that bias and the factor is still there but not that strong.

 

BvS, SS, Kubo, Popstar, The Witch, Hail Ceasar, The Nice Guys, the list of movies (just like Hitman vs Logan Lucky) that seem to show that reviews do not matter that much is very long. Specially for a movie like IT that achieved total saturation and interest without needing them in one of the most critics robust genre Horror.

Edited September 6, 2017 by Barnack

[ZattMurdock]

Just look at this year or any given year release slate:

 

Box office is hurt by films with bad buzz. The Dark Tower, The Mummy, Transformers and the list keeps going. Saying that BvS and SS overperformed is a fallacy and anyone that follows box office long enough knows that. But sure, let's claim that RT scores and buzz don't affect a blockbuster film performance at all. What ALL the films that overperform have in common? Great buzz and high RT scores. It's an obvious fact and pattern that we have noticed throughout the years. Be my guest to make hot takes though. 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, iJackSparrow said:

Box office is hurt by films with bad buzz. The Dark Tower, The Mummy, Transformers and the list keeps going. Saying that BvS and SS overperformed is a fallacy and anyone that follows box office long enough knows that. But sure, let's claim that RT scores and buzz don't affect a blockbuster film performance at all. It's an obvious fact and pattern that we have noticed throughout the years. Be my guest to make hot takes though. 

I said that ? Ever ? I am just talking about the first weekend for one and I said that it has a correlation, even calculated one and said it, just pointed out that it was a surprising small one (the correlation with legs is much more obvious and strong).

 

It something that would happen to most people doing that exercise (do it you will see)

 

http://minimaxir.com/2016/01/movie-revenue-ratings/

 

 

Some even find a negative correlation between MC score and first weekend box office:

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Old_Projects/kennedy.pdf

Looking at the correlation between first week box office gross and metacritic score we get an even more surprising result: a comparably larger negative correlation (r = -.13)

 

If you take necessary measure (compare apple to apple) you will achieve to get a positive one but it need work, unlike variable like theater count, trailers views, etc... that require no work at all to observe an obvious correlation.

 

Quote

 

What ALL the films that overperform have in common? Great buzz and high RT scores.

 

 

SS, BvS, Minions, many of the Transformer, home, Boss Baby.

 

It is useless to cherry pick anyway, the good way to do this is with hundreds of title over a couple of year's and check.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

 

 

SS, BvS, Minions, many of the Transformer, home, Boss Baby.

 

It is useless to cherry pick anyway, the good way to do this is with hundreds of title over a couple of year's and check.

SS had a 2.4 multiplier. BvS had a 1.99 multiplier. Minions, Hom and Boss Baby are animation films, bound to be not affected as much by RT score. Transformers and Pirates films experienced having first films with good RT and buzz and fastly free falling sequel after sequel. I don't see how this is even an argument, let's just agree to disagree. For what it's worth and the time that I've been following films and box office, there's an obvious correlation on the domestic market at the very least. But to each their own. 

[RobinHood26]

1 hour ago, snarkmachine said:

Why are people being so anal? This is clearly not a movie whose box office is going to be primarily dictated by the reviews. It's not going to make much of a difference whether the score is 80% or 90% or whether it's sorted by top critics or just normal critics.

 

Welcome to the Box Office Theory forums. 

[Barnack]

Just now, iJackSparrow said:

SS had a 2.4 multiplier. BvS had a 1.99 multiplier

And I clearly said that multiplier is more linked to the reviews

 

My original post:

Quote

For the opening weekend, many would.

 

8 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

Minions, Hom and Boss Baby are animation films, bound to be not affected as much by RT score

Isn't a bit the same for horror OW ?

 

9 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

buzz

Obviously great buzz is important, I never talked about that, was only referring to the reviews part.

 

Quote

 I don't see how this is even an argument, let's just agree to disagree.

Or track the 500 latest wide release box office OW with their RT scores and show that my low corr of around 0.35 is wrong (could be) it is not something that need to be necessarily talked about they are numbers with a track record.

[dxmatrixdt]

the new negative reviews have killed my excitement for the film. It was at 100% last night, now at 90% this afternoon.  Dunkirk all over again?

Edited September 6, 2017 by Matrix4You

[We0uthere]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

the new negative reviews have killed my excitement for the film. It was at 100% last night, now at 90% this afternoon.  Dunkirk all over again?

Relax lmao.. it was bound to drop. Even low 80s is great for a horror movie. 

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

And I clearly said that multiplier is more linked to the reviews

 

My original post:

 

Isn't a bit the same for horror OW ?

 

Obviously great buzz is important, I never talked about that, was only referring to the reviews part.

 

Or track the 500 latest wide release box office OW with their RT scores and show that my low corr of around 0.35 is wrong (could be) it is not something that need to be necessarily talked about they are numbers with a track record.

1. I'd argue that ow for films poorly reviewed films could enjoy a better reception depending on buzz / RT score. 

 

2. It depends of the horror property. If it's a classic / adaptation of a classic story (IT, The Dark Tower) good reviews matter more than stuff like the Wan cinematic universe.

 

3. Alright, we have some common ground here, my point is that good buzz is intrinsically linked to good reviews which means a good RT score.

 

4. I do think your research has merit, but judging with statistical numbers without further context isn't the exact the way to go in my opinion. So while I'll give you that it has merit, it's a tad more complex than that.

[UNDERDOG]

9 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

the new negative reviews have killed my excitement for the film. It was at 100% last night, now at 90% this afternoon.  Dunkirk all over again?

 

My dude, are you for real or is this sarcasm?

[K1stpierre]

9 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

the new negative reviews have killed my excitement for the film. It was at 100% last night, now at 90% this afternoon.  Dunkirk all over again?

 

Did you really think it was going to stay that high?

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

the new negative reviews have killed my excitement for the film. It was at 100% last night, now at 90% this afternoon.  Dunkirk all over again?

 

[dxmatrixdt]

4 minutes ago, K1stpierre said:

 

Did you really think it was going to stay that high?

I am on page 1,000 and the book is great!  Get Out it at 99%

[theultimatebiu]

2 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

I am on page 1,000 and the book is great!  Get Out it at 99%

And....? 91% is not good enough? Really? Some people are just never satisfied.

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, UNDERDOG said:

 

My dude, are you for real or is this sarcasm?

 

7 minutes ago, K1stpierre said:

 

Did you really think it was going to stay that high?

 

 

#NotARecord

[Brainbug]

Just now, Matrix4You said:

I am on page 1,000 and the book is great!  Get Out it at 99%

 

A classic like Jurassic Park sits at 93%. The overall score isnt the most important indicator on RT. Its the avg rating. It now has a 7.3, fantastic for any movie, but especially for a horror film. You cant be serious here.

And Get Out had the luxury to release at the perfect (political) time. Also, its more of a political satire-thriller, IT seems like a far more traditional horror movie. They're not really comparable. Also, if you want to see a movie, go see it and dont let the opinions of others influence your mind too much.

[ZattMurdock]

I really like Get Out. But 99% is way too much. I'd put above stuff like Kong (my least favorite film of the year, watched last night and it's not even a bad film, love the little Metal Gear homages I've found within, but it's not a great film either), Hitman's Bodyguard and Logan which I actually liked, but it's not better in my opinion than either Wonder Woman, Guardians Vol. 2 or Spider-Man: Homecoming in my opinion.