China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[nevermore]

9.0 on Maoyan

[Godzilla]

9 minutes ago, nevermore said:

9.0 on Maoyan

Yea Bumblebee is a good movie to compare to when it comes to box office in China with Alita. 

[KP1025]

I would be more conservative with the multiplier. Bumblebee essentially had no competition its entire run. Until Chinese New Year, the biggest movie it faced was Deadpool 2 with a $22 million OW. And that was on Bumblebee's 4th weekend. Alita is facing much tougher competition with a still strong TWE, HTTYD3 next weekend, and Captain Marvel the following weekend. 

[Fake]

17 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

I would be more conservative with the multiplier. Bumblebee essentially had no competition its entire run. Until Chinese New Year, the biggest movie it faced was Deadpool 2 with a $22 million OW. And that was on Bumblebee's 4th weekend. Alita is facing much tougher competition with a still strong TWE, HTTYD3 next weekend, and Captain Marvel the following weekend. 

Agreed. I see a multiplier of 2-2.2x, so in order to have a shot at 1B, it needs to open with at least 450M.

 

Right now i see it opening around 425M and finishing around 875-900M.

[xiao2000]

Quote

Where do you think TWE will likely end up? Around 4.6 - 4.7 B?

I'm not sure. It really depends on how it holds this weekend. I do think 4.7B is very likely. 

[charlie Jatinder]

The Wandering Earth

 

Date	Gross in ¥ ('000)	Gross in $	Daily Change	L/W Change	Gross To Date	Weekend	Weekly	Weekend Change	Weekly Change
Previews	¥13,154	$1,948,741			$1,948,741
05/02/2019	¥188,471	$27,921,630			$29,870,370
06/02/2019	¥258,318	$38,269,333	37.06%		$68,139,704
07/02/2019	¥339,810	$50,342,222	31.55%		$118,481,926		$118,481,926
08/02/2019	¥383,958	$56,882,667	12.99%		$175,364,593
09/02/2019	¥416,300	$61,765,579	8.58%		$237,130,171
10/02/2019	¥416,602	$61,810,386	0.07%		$298,940,557	$180,458,631
11/02/2019	¥338,783	$49,894,404	-19.28%	2460.34%	$348,834,961
12/02/2019	¥258,149	$38,131,315	-23.58%	36.57%	$386,966,275
13/02/2019	¥215,430	$31,868,343	-16.42%	-16.73%	$418,834,618
14/02/2019	¥351,608	$51,936,189	62.97%	3.17%	$470,770,807		$352,288,881		197.34%
15/02/2019	¥181,164	$26,759,823	-48.48%	-52.96%	$497,530,630
16/02/2019	¥232,805	$34,387,740	28.51%	-44.33%	$531,918,370
17/02/2019	¥192,488	$28,432,496	-17.32%	-54.00%	$560,350,866	$89,580,059		-50.36%
18/02/2019	¥99,637	$14,717,430	-48.24%	-70.50%	$575,068,296
19/02/2019	¥112,268	$16,607,692	12.84%	-56.45%	$591,675,989
20/02/2019	¥65,372	$9,727,976	-41.42%	-69.47%	$601,403,965
21/02/2019	¥54,086	$8,048,512	-17.26%	-84.50%	$609,452,477		$138,681,669		-60.63%

[charlie Jatinder]

At 1700, Alita: Battle Angel at ¥78mn ($11.5mn). The full day looking like ¥112-115mn ($17mn) Approx.

[Bishop54]

43 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

At 1700, Alita: Battle Angel at ¥78mn ($11.5mn). The full day looking like ¥112-115mn ($17mn) Approx.

So an opening weekend in the upper 50's looks to be the case?

[marveldcfox]

19 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

So an opening weekend in the upper 50's looks to be the case?

Meh indeed

[peludo]

It is a bit shocking (and fun) to see people saying Alita's opening is disappointing when China OW=2xDOM OW

[a2k]

$55 looks like it for Alita ow if od is $17.

With HTTYD3 and CapMarvel releasing back to back it will be very difficult to achieve 2.0x multiplier.

 

4 minutes ago, peludo said:

It is a bit shocking (and fun) to see people saying Alita's opening is disappointing when China OW=2xDOM OW

China total could still end up below dom though.

Edited February 22, 2019 by a2k

[charlie Jatinder]

41 minutes ago, Bishop54 said:

So an opening weekend in the upper 50's looks to be the case?

60 certainly.

[peludo]

12 minutes ago, a2k said:

$55 looks like it for Alita ow if od is $17.

With HTTYD3 and CapMarvel releasing back to back it will be very difficult to achieve 2.0x multiplier.

 

China total could still end up below dom though.

Do you think Alita will make more than $110m DOM?

Edited February 22, 2019 by peludo

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, peludo said:

Do you think Alita will make more than $110m DOM?

Kingsman1 DOM was 3.07x it's FSSM President's Day ow in 2015.

Alita did $8.7 on Thu and then $33.8 over FSSM. If it has a 3.0x multiplier off the FSSM then it gets to

$8.7 Thu + $33.8*3.0 = $110.1 DOM

HTTYD3 and Cap Marvel will compete for premium screens so that could cut it's run short somewhat. Don't think it will miss low-$100s DOM

Edited February 22, 2019 by a2k

[charlie Jatinder]

At 19:00 at ¥98mn Approx. Shall go for ¥115-120mn full day i.e. $17.5-17.75mn Approx.

[Gavin Feng]

11 minutes ago, a2k said:

$55 looks like it for Alita ow if od is $17.

With HTTYD3 and CapMarvel releasing back to back it will be very difficult to achieve 2.0x multiplier.

  

China total could still end up below dom though.

 

HTTYD3 will not be a threat.

[RealLyre]

 

[Stewart]

13 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

 

@Olive @Gavin Feng How big an effect (if any) could lowering ticket prices by 10 yuan have?

[charlie Jatinder]

19 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

@Olive @Gavin Feng How big an effect (if any) could lowering ticket prices by 10 yuan have?

Local films don't have such restriction I guess.

[Gavin Feng]

27 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

@Olive @Gavin Feng How big an effect (if any) could lowering ticket prices by 10 yuan have?

It won't make much difference. Still keeping $670M+ expectation.