China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Olive]

Just now, jiangsen said:

Maoyan predicting ALOT less. 64.5M Fri (+23%), 100M Sat (+55%), 74M Sun (-26%). 239M total (-81% last weekend). Any chance you’re really overshooting the weekend?

I'm sure I'll be more accurrate than Maoyan , its PS data for IW are not right these days.

[POTUS 2020]

They still haven't cleared a 1000 shows for Solo, that's unusually late. PS wont go any where until there are 10k+. Should ramp up tomorow

 

 

41 minutes ago, Mrstickball said:

A Quiet Place is matching Infinity War's pre-sales for Friday. This is the best timeline, folks. The best.

but IW PSm will be higher friday and bump much greater on Saturday. IW $50m  AQP  $20-25m

1 hour ago, Proxima Olive said:

Thurs est
IW 52.3M -19.3% same drop as BP, steeper than FF8's 18%
Total 1578.5M

should +40% +100% -10%(520 boost) for the nex days

looks good to me.  PS up 40% for sat

FF8						IW					CA3
Day	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot
Fri	417			480	70	386			445	70	181			198	30
Sat	488	17.0%		968	141	493	27.6%		938	148	249	37.6%		447	69
Sun	385	-21.1%		1353	197	331	-32.8%		1269	200	180	-27.7%		627	96
Mon	163	-57.7%		1516	220	109	-67.1%		1378	217	60	-66.7%		687	106
Tues	121	-25.8%		1637	238	81	-25.9%		1458	230	49	-18.3%		736	113
Wed	94	-22.3%		1731	252	65	-19.8%		1523	240	40	-18.4%		776	119
Thur	77	-18.1%		1808	263	53	-19.0%		1576	249	33	-17.5%		809	124
Fri	103	33.8%	-75.3%	1911	278	74	41.0%	-80.8%	1650	260	49	48.5%	-72.9%	858	132
Sat	160	55.3%	-67.2%	2071	301	140	89.2%	-71.6%	1790	282	92	87.8%	-63.1%	950	146
Sun	117	-26.9%	-69.6%	2188	318	126	-10.0%	VD day	1916	302	67	-27.2%	-62.8%	1017	156
Mon	42	-64.1%	-74.2%	2230	324	33	-73.8%	-69.7%	1949	307	20.0	-70.1%	-66.7%	1037	160
Tue	37	-11.9%	-69.4%	2267	330	29	-12.1%	-64.1%	1978	312	18.0	-10.0%	-63.3%	1055	162
Wed	33	-10.8%	-64.9%	2300	334	26	-10.3%	-59.9%	2004	316	15.4	-14.4%	-61.5%	1070	165
Thu	29	-12.1%	-62.3%	2329	339	23	-11.5%	-56.2%	2027	319	13.8	-10.4%	-58.2%	1084	167
Fri	30	3.4%	-70.9%	2359	343	28	21.7%	-62.2%	2055	324	24.0	73.9%	VD Day	1108	170
Sat	60	100.0%	-62.5%	2419	352	56	100.0%	-60.0%	2111	332	31.0	29.2%	-66.3%	1139	175
Sun	75	25.0%	-35.9%	2494	363	40	-28.6%	-68.3%	2151	339	23.6	-23.9%	-64.8%	1163	179
Mon	58	-22.7%	38.1%	2552	371	14	-66.3%	-59.1%	2164	341	7.5	-68.2%	-62.5%	1170	180
Tue	18	-69.0%	-51.4%	2570	374	12	-11.1%	-58.6%	2176	343	6.9	-8.0%	-61.7%	1177	181
Wed	14	-22.2%	-57.6%	2584	376	11	-12.5%	-59.6%	2187	344	6.3	-8.3%	-58.9%	1184	182
Thu	13	-7.1%	-55.2%	2597	377	9	-14.3%	-60.9%	2196	346	6.1	-3.6%	-55.8%	1190	183
.
Fri	8	-38.5%	-73.3%	2605	379	11	22.2%	-60.7%	2207	348	6	-1.6%	-75.0%	1196	184
Sat	13.4	67.5%	-77.7%	2618	381	21	90.9%	-62.5%	2228	351	13	115.0%	-58.4%	1209	186
Sun	11.4	-14.9%	-84.8%	2630	382	15	-28.6%	-62.5%	2243	353	11	-18.6%	-55.5%	1219	188
				2670	388				2285	360				1244	191

Edited May 17, 2018 by POTUS

[HouseOfTheSun]

4 hours ago, baumer said:

Just curious, why does everyone take pleasure in Star Wars not doing well in China?  

Disney doesn’t fail very much. Compared to other studios, they basically never fail, whereas even WB and Universal throw out stinker on the regular. So people get super excited when Disney does have a misstep. 

[Barnack]

5 hours ago, baumer said:

Just curious, why does everyone take pleasure in Star Wars not doing well in China?  

Nothing about Star Wars in particular, and only combined with that achieve to do well can be satisfying in term of hope for an healthy competition to the franchise world.

 

27

A Dog's Purpose

n/a

$88,226,996

3/3

36

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Disney

$69,484,899

1/6

35

Hacksaw Ridge

n/a

$62,124,942

12/8

38

The Revenant

n/a

$58,684,119

3/18

46

Mechanic: Resurrection

n/a

$49,243,215

10/21

20

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Disney

$42,577,974

1/5

 

There is a bit of a fear that a giant world market will make it extra hard for non giant obvious to be worldwide compatible story (set in magical world, space world, with worldwide stake, etc...) to be made. That movie's will be made taken most market do and do not into account, making the range of the possible more and more smaller (do not put ghost possession in your movie or that political message you will loose China or Russia, etc...).

 

Having some failure and those that do try really hard at getting China, while large success from movies that didn't even knew or sure in advance they would be able to play there like Revenant, keep it a bit more in a you never know status and if you never know you can less use formula.

 

Obviously there is a list of people that either do not like Disney, Star Wars or what they did with Star Wars (or where it went since Awaken) that schadenfreude in any place or MCU fans that just like the idea of having good chance of seeing MCUs movie go over SW world result. Almost on people not working in the industry would ever follow box office at all without having some of those petty ridiculous team rooting for and against title like that, to give it stake.

 

If people do not remember that fear (that is still going on), better text to explain it:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2013/may/30/hollywood-china-film-industry

https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/08/did-you-catch-the-ways-hollywood-pandered-to-china-this-year

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/1843700/hollywood-blockbusters-tailored-please-censors-and-access

Edited May 17, 2018 by Barnack

[vc2002]

13 hours ago, baumer said:

Just curious, why does everyone take pleasure in Star Wars not doing well in China?  

 

I think the real reason is very simple: everyone loves to see a dramatic boxoffice run, no matter whether it's a dramatic success or a dramatic bomb like TLJ. I don't think people really have a thing against SW or Disney.

 

If TLJ made let's say $80m, that'd still be a boxoffice disappointment, but surely not an entertaining disappointment. You can't deny a 92% second wknd drop is dramatic and entertaining, and that's what TLJ had.

 

People are still mocking Justice League, not because all of them are against DC, but because JL' pathetic boxoffice run is entertaining.

Edited May 18, 2018 by vc2002

[meriodejaneiro]

5 hours ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Disney doesn’t fail very much. Compared to other studios, they basically never fail, whereas even WB and Universal throw out stinker on the regular. So people get super excited when Disney does have a misstep. 

I understand people can feel surprised about Disney failing, but here some people really enjoy those Disney bad numbers (wether they are anti-Disney, or just anti-SW, or anti-MCU ...). I do not understand that "anti-studio" feeling ... as if their life/salary/happiness depended on it. 

 

On the other side i people supporting the movies they like, rooting for their good box office runs, that's positive, supportive ... I like Disney and mostly everything involving it. So I have been supporting Solo, wanting it to make a big dom ow, 500M dom run ... I can be right or wrong, i can seem foolish, but it's a positive way. I don't go trashing other studios/movies trolling on the forums to the edge just because they are Disney rivals. 

 

[Gavin Feng]

11 hours ago, baumer said:

Just curious, why does everyone take pleasure in Star Wars not doing well in China?  

Probably because with a level of 1.2%* TLJ in advance ticket sale at the same point, people in Disney still believe it can make more than $16M in China.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

11 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Because it's hilarious. The biggest franchise in the world (no more cause MCU is now it) cannot penetrate the most sought-after market in the world. Nobody saw that coming and that's exciting. It's simply the thrill of the unexpected. 

 

I do have some personal reasons such as that I hate NuWars focus on OT era and want them to start thinking outside of that box. And failure is the only thing that can make them do it.

I too want the boring ongoing Skywalker series to fail so that they start to make Old Republic movies and as such.

 

10 hours ago, Fake said:

What do you think.... Solo OW < IW 3rd weekend? 

Locked. Even Italy's Perfect Strangers also coming May 25th will beat SoLo.

[Rebeccas]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Probably because with a level of 1.2%* TLJ in advance ticket sale at the same point, people in Disney still believe it can make more than $16M in China.

LOL 1.2%??? HOW

[Legion Again]

13 hours ago, baumer said:

Just curious, why does everyone take pleasure in Star Wars not doing well in China?  

I don’t think it’s particularly related to Star Wars, Disney, China, or anything like that. It’s just that medium box office performances are boring, while extremes, by dint of being less common, are more interesting. So anything that does extremely good or extremely bad in any big territory becomes an interesting narrative to focus on and talk about.     

 

In service of that, when a movie is tracking for a 90th percentile performance, people will hop for it to overperform — end up at 98th, rather than end up at 75th. 98th is just more interesting that 75th. But when a movie’s is expected to perform around the 10th percentile, people will hope that it bombs even more, with a 2nd percentile rather than 25th percentile performance, simply because 2nd is more exciting than 25th.       

 

In my opinion, this desire for the more exciting narrative on either extreme is a core dynamic behind people wanting to see IW beat Titanic or JL fall below Man of Steel.

Edited May 18, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, firedeep said:

I too want the boring ongoing Skywalker series to fail so that they start to make Old Republic movies and as such.

 

Locked. Even Italy's Perfect Strangers also coming May 25th will beat SoLo.

I think they will eventually make an Old Republic series in their own streaming service. Or maybe it will be the movie trilogy that the showrunners of GoT will helm. Who knows. They won't say anything.

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, Rebeccas said:

LOL 1.2%??? HOW

Solo barely has any shows listed to buy tix. just 1000. nearly all movies have 30k+ shows listed by now, at 7 days out

 

IW sales midpoint should be 5pm today, tracking to 37m at that time. going with 70-75m. 40 percentage-ish bump as we expected.

90-100% bump likely tomorrow.  VD bumped CA3 an extra 30%, Sunday could be flat on VD

Edited May 18, 2018 by POTUS

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

  In my opinion, this desire for the more exciting narrative on either extreme is a core dynamic behind people wanting to see IW beat Titanic or JL fall below Man of Steel.

Agreed for me when I see that a film is clearly going down a certain trend I want to see that film hit the most extreme version of that trend (positive or negative) as possible. Boring box office runs like say Civil War are no fun to discuss. 

[a2k]

if hit hits 1900 ($298) by sunday as expected can't see below 2150 ($337) even if it looses steam while 2250 ($353) is a reasonable goal.

Edited May 18, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[ZeeSoh]

A Quiet Place with a 7.6 rating on Maoyan and 7.2 on Douban. Thats very low and pretty much the opposite of what I thought it would be at. Legs will be short

[POTUS 2020]

AQP with a 7.6 rating, heading to 35-40m OD.  PS look weak for tomorrow, may not bump. 110-120m OW  $16-18m

[KP1025]

12 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

A Quiet Place with a 7.6 rating on Maoyan and 7.2 on Douban. Thats very low and pretty much the opposite of what I thought it would be at. Legs will be short

 

I would guess it's too slow-paced for China. Audiences probably expected a lot more action and gore from it.

[Fake]

Heading for 70-72M today.

[a2k]

42 minutes ago, Fake said:

Heading for 70-72M today.

72+133(+85%)+120(-10%) = 325 (74-75% drop); 1901 cume

325 more in rest of the run gives 2226 total ($349)

[bangbingchan]

3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

A Quiet Place with a 7.6 rating on Maoyan and 7.2 on Douban. Thats very low and pretty much the opposite of what I thought it would be at. Legs will be short

WoM is quite normal for a horror film.Most horror films are 5-6 on Maoyan.it's very empty this week and upcoming week.A quite place will easily break horror film record

Edited May 18, 2018 by bangbingchan