Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[Biggestgeekever]

10 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

From what I know, it only did $3M in Australia. So if the theory holds, it should just make a bit over $30M in NA.

 

 

OK. Not a huge difference then, but considerable. 

Yeah, not a huge difference, but enough that it may benefit from Mother's Day.

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

Wow I just checked. It did 3.1 million in Australia opening weekend? That's not a good internal multiplayer for the weekend.

Here's the results compared to Prometheus via BOM

• South Korea - $7.2m (+52.58% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• United Kingdom - $6.4m (-39.85% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• France - $4.53m (-38.41% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Australia - $3.09m (-79.40% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Mexico - $2.46m (-24.90% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Spain - $1.9m (-71.63% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Hong Kong - $1.76m (+17.24% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Brazil - $1.63m (-52.47% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Italy - $1.29m (-66.68% vs. Prometheus Opening)

Some very troubling results, even considering how worse exchange rates are compared to 2012.

[grim22]

Based on initial markets, it looks like Alien Covenant might end below 200M OS without China. Pretty frontloaded in the markets it opened in as well, though that might be because OD was a holiday in a few of them.

[grim22]

Wonder if moving Alien: Covenant to May from the initial August date might end up backfiring. It would have ruled August as the only big release both Domestic and OS instead of being lost among a slew of releases immediately following it.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

I like Prometheus. 

I like Prometheus but this... oh poor Ridley

[Alli]

,

Edited May 14, 2017 by Alli

[ThomasNicole]

I'm so disappointed with Covenant... it's a terrible movie, totally unspired, bad editing, action / horror scenes without tension, connections with prometheus really meh...

75% is much higher than deserve. 

 

Prometheus is far better... at least have mystery, tension, is interesting etc.

Edited May 14, 2017 by ThomasNicole

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Based on initial markets, it looks like Alien Covenant might end below 200M OS without China. Pretty frontloaded in the markets it opened in as well, though that might be because OD was a holiday in a few of them.

How much should we expect from China though, the week after it opens, Transformers come. And the weeks before have The Mummy and Wonder Woman.

[TalismanRing]

34 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

A bit late on this reply so it's possible someone beat me to the punch but, according to BOM:

 

Most other MCU titles have a gender breakdown that favors men 60/40.

 

Opening weekend demos don't always carry over.  GOTG1  o/w was 55/45 but ended up with a slightly greater split than TWS  59/41 (GOTG) vs 58/42 (TWS).

 

From the MPAA: http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2014.pdf

 

IM3: 58/42  http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2013_032514-v2.pdf

 

AOU: 58/42  http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2015_Final.pdf

 

Civil War: 59/41 : http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2016_Final.pdf

 

Avengers: Can't find the link but I think over it's run it had the closest demo at around 54/46 or 55/45

 

 

Edited May 14, 2017 by TalismanRing

[aabattery]

Keep in mind the 3.1M is in USD. The AUSD value is closer to 4M. Still not great and @DeeCee mentioned in the A:C thread that Prometheus and Life both over performed in Australia.

[EmpireCity]

4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

Oh, please. You know very well that BatB is a mammoth hit because of perfect blend of actress and character. That's the secret of big boxoffice stars - pick as many roles that audience wants to see you in. 

 

Circle wasn't even advertised much so putting the blame on Emma or using it as a proof that her casting in BatB had nothing to do with BatB success doesn't hold. 

 

Lol.  No.  They could have cast about a dozen other actresses in Beauty and the Beast and it would have been a gigantic hit.  

 

The success of the movie had very little to do with her and everything to do with Disney and their formula for success.  

[PPZVGOS]

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

You obviously are under estimating the markets that love Star Wars. Did you see Harry Potter drop at all in the United Kingdom? It's not going to drop that much in the UK buddy.

 

Even if TLJ makes as much in sterling as TFA did, the British currency has devalued markedly since then against the USD: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=2Y

 

[Biggestgeekever]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Opening weekend demos don't always carry over.  GOTG1  o/w was 55/45 but ended up with a slightly greater split than TWS  59/41 vs 58/42.

 

From the MPAA: http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2014.pdf

 

IM3: 58/42  http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2013_032514-v2.pdf

 

Avengers: Can't find the link but I think over it's run it had the closest demo at 54/46 or 55/45

 

 

Interesting. If Avengers ended up at 55/45, that's an improvement over the 60/40 it had on OW. Avengers 2 also improved slightly to 58/42 from 59/41 according to the MPAA: http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/MPAA-Theatrical-Market-Statistics-2015_Final.pdf

 

Guardians 1 seems like the only film of the bunch that ended up skewing more male than during opening weekend.

[EmpireCity]

48 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

GOTG2 has a good shot at #1 again next weekend. 

 

No way.  

[PPZVGOS]

24 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Yeah, not a huge difference, but enough that it may benefit from Mother's Day.

Here's the results compared to Prometheus via BOM

• South Korea - $7.2m (+52.58% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• United Kingdom - $6.4m (-39.85% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• France - $4.53m (-38.41% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Australia - $3.09m (-79.40% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Mexico - $2.46m (-24.90% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Spain - $1.9m (-71.63% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Hong Kong - $1.76m (+17.24% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Brazil - $1.63m (-52.47% vs. Prometheus Opening)
• Italy - $1.29m (-66.68% vs. Prometheus Opening)

Some very troubling results, even considering how worse exchange rates are compared to 2012.

 

Those results are not troubling, they are disastrous (East Asia excepted) 

 

Scott should have just gone for Prometheus 2 instead, with Noomi Rapace and Fassbender traveling to the Engineers' planet. This is already shaping up to be a major disappointment. 

 

[baumer]

32 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

75% on RT right now.  I don't factor in reviews too much but we know it's probably at least "solid" and the horror genre has been cleaning up the last two summers. This is sci-fi/horror from a major franchise and directed by Scott.   I can't see a drop from $51M  all the way down to $30M.  I'd be shocked. 

 

Well get ready for a shock lol.

[DeeCee]

Note:That's USD3.1m which converts to about AUD4.1m.  Prometheus opened to AUD6.77m in Australia (I had a look back and it did benefit from the Queen's Birthday public holiday on the Monday)

 

A:C opening weekend looks like being toughly 40% down on Prometheus.

 

It all depends on whether the relative performance of Prometheus in Australia vs Domestic is repeated for Alien:Covenant.  Relatively speaking Prometheus performed 50% better in Australia then it did Domestic.  So if a strong market for Prometheus is dropping like this then it can't be good news for Domestic.  

 

I can see both A:C and GOTG2 at around USD35-40m next weekend.

[SteveJaros]

6 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

 

People are trying to find reasons to argue that GotG2 is different (walk-up, family movie) from the average MCU movie to keep the hope of $400M alive, but it is not happening.

 

Yes, the "walk up" concept makes little sense. As for $400m, I agree that isn't happening either. Not that it really matters - it's already a big smash hit at the box office, as well as being a very good film. 

[EmpireCity]

4 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Note:That's USD3.1m which converts to about AUD4.1m.  Prometheus opened to AUD6.77m in Australia (I had a look back and it did benefit from the Queen's Birthday public holiday on the Monday)

 

A:C opening weekend looks like being toughly 40% down on Prometheus.

 

It all depends on whether the relative performance of Prometheus in Australia vs Domestic is repeated for Alien:Covenant.  Relatively speaking Prometheus performed 50% better in Australia then it did Domestic.  So if a strong market for Prometheus is dropping like this then it can't be good news for Domestic.  

 

I can see both A:C and GOTG2 at around USD35-40m next weekend.

 

37% drop for Guardians?

[Alli]

5 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Note:That's USD3.1m which converts to about AUD4.1m.  Prometheus opened to AUD6.77m in Australia (I had a look back and it did benefit from the Queen's Birthday public holiday on the Monday)

 

 

 

it says on bom that it opened to 6.7 US dollars...

[SteveJaros]

6 hours ago, baumer said:

Pirates of the Caribbean was once very popular overseas and I guess it could be this time as well but Johnny Depp's shine has definitely been dimmed over the last few years. I don't see Pirates coming anywhere close to a billion. I wouldn't be surprised with a sub 200 finish here and maybe two hundred million in China. I don't think it's getting 600 million from other markets. My guess at this point would be perhaps 800 or 850.

 

I bet everyone at Disney would be quite pleased with ~$825m. That would be a big success for a movie and a franchise that is a relic of the last decade. And that's coming from someone who is a big fan of all of the films in the series and saw them all on their opening days (and will ditto for this one as well). 

Edited May 14, 2017 by SteveJaros