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Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

By Totem, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by Eric Burnett,

Moderation   @IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar @ImNotExcited@watcher1232@dudalb   I'm gonna say this once, and this applies to everybody here on both sides: we're not doing this "lol look at all the doubters, Jimbo is amazing" BS anymore. We're not doing this "lol look at these Cameron fanboys. So delusional. Fanboys gonna fanboy" It's not funny, never was funny, and frankly is unnecessary nonsense that clogs up the forums.   We still have eight months to go, and we r
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Posted by AniNate,

Or now     

TEASER TRAILER MAH BOIS

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Posted by Eric Burnett,

First movie re-release trailer

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Posted by ZeeSoh,

Moderation: Please refrain from baseless commentary on shills and paid, biased critics. The movie is getting very good reviews, that should be good enough for fans to enjoy without engaging in nonsensical fanboy nonsense. 
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Posted by Cap,

Hello Everyone!   This is just a friendly reminder from your Admin that reviews are subjective, and are not gonna affect your overall enjoyment of the movie.   And if anything is getting too heated for you; I pinned this post! You can come back and just look at the furbabies in my signature for a serotonin high!   Godspeed, folks.  
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IronJimbo Global Phenomenon

IronJimbo

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

@IronJimbo just out of curiosity, what will be your reaction if Way of Water doesn't outgrows the first movie DOM nor WW?

Extreme confusion honestly, I won't be happy at all.

 

I'll be able to make $2.5b worldwide work, as cinema climate has changed massively post Covid and it would it would equate to the highest grosser in a none covid inflicted world. However, if it doesn't beat Titanic WW & Dom then there's no excuse.

 

 

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stripe Box Office Gold

stripe

Posted
Posted

Let's say it opens to 180M and it follows a "normal" Christmas tentpole

Second weekend 110M (Saturday 24th deflated, Sunday 25th boosted)

Third weekend 80M

4th weekend 50M (first time it could gross under first Avatar).

By then, it should be well over 600M. With not so strong competition claiming PLF through January, 750-800M range is almost a given

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stuart360 Blockbuster

stuart360

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

I have been thinking 155m~165m but my prediction went up to 175m~180m now. But I am not that interested in OW. My aim is on 2nd weekend with 150m! Yes, it is crazy given Christmas eve but I don't care, I want that SW7's biggest second weekend record. 

Whats the 3rd weekend record?, because i could see the 2nd and 3rd weekends being basically flat at around 100mil each.

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Whats the 3rd weekend record?, because i could see the 2nd and 3rd weekends being basically falt at around 100mil each.

 

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I believe is still belong to SW7's $90m 

 

Top 5 3rd Weekends

TFA = $90.24M

Avatar = $68.49M

Black Panther = $66.3M

Endgame = $63.3M

Infinity War - $62.08M

 

If ATWOW opens over $170M, it should at least make it to 2nd on this list.

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

Posted
Posted

Territories that are over 100 million:

 

AVATAR (2009)

 

202.6 M / China

174.4 M / France

170.6 M / Japan

156.6 M / Germany

147.6 M / United Kingdom

116.1 M / Russia

108.3 M / South Korea

107.3 M / Spain

103.9 M / Australia

 

Markets to look out for:

 

93.7 M / Italy

57.8 M / Brazil

43.8 M / Mexico

28.0 M / India

 

That's nine 100 M territories. But this time, there won't be Russia, whose absence will be compensated by the expansion of China. Will Italy cross the century mark? Maybe Brazil?

 

AVENGERS: ENDGAME (2019) numbers:

 

86.7 M / Brazil

77.6 M / Mexico

62.7 M / India

 

I think these three have the potential to give 100 M each.

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Territories that are over 100 million:

 

AVATAR (2009)

 

202.6 M / China

174.4 M / France

170.6 M / Japan

156.6 M / Germany

147.6 M / United Kingdom

116.1 M / Russia

108.3 M / South Korea

107.3 M / Spain

103.9 M / Australia

 

Markets to look out for:

 

93.7 M / Italy

57.8 M / Brazil

43.8 M / Mexico

28.0 M / India

 

That's nine 100 M territories. But this time, there won't be Russia, whose absence will be compensated by the expansion of China. Will Italy cross the century mark? Maybe Brazil?

 

AVENGERS: ENDGAME (2019) numbers:

 

86.7 M / Brazil

77.6 M / Mexico

62.7 M / India

 

I think these three have the potential to give 100 M each.


 

China should be able to double or maybe triple.
France, Japan and Germany will drop by $50-75M each.

Spain, Australia and Italy will all drop by $25-50M.

UK probably drops $15-30M.

SK should be flat or increase.

Brazil will definitely be lower than Endgame.

Mexico will probably be lower than Endgame.

India should be higher than Endgame.

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:


 

China should be able to double or maybe triple.
France, Japan and Germany will drop by $50-75M each.

Spain, Australia and Italy will all drop by $25-50M.

UK probably drops $15-30M.

SK should be flat or increase.

Brazil will definitely be lower than Endgame.

Mexico will probably be lower than Endgame.

India should be higher than Endgame.

 

So let's say:

 

500 M / China

100 M / France

100 M / Japan

100 M / Germany

100 M / United Kingdom

110 M / South Korea

 

70 M / Spain

70 M / Australia

70 M / Italy

70 M / Brazil

70 M / Mexico

70 M / India

 

I think some numbers here are conservative. Then we add the emerging markets from Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East. I think 2.2 billion overseas is possible.

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

So let's say:

 

500 M / China

100 M / France

100 M / Japan

100 M / Germany

100 M / United Kingdom

110 M / South Korea

 

70 M / Spain

70 M / Australia

70 M / Italy

70 M / Brazil

70 M / Mexico

70 M / India

 

I think some numbers here are conservative. Then we add the emerging markets from Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East. I think 2.2 billion overseas is possible.


 

$2.2B OS is a bit higher than my prediction but I agree I that it’s possible. China is what makes OS predictions hard right now. Could be $400M, could be $700M. I’m thinking $1.35-1.4B OS-C-R.

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