Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

150m OW, 200m second weekend.

 

Funny seeing old doubters come round the closer we get.

 

Hope the heck that isn't referring to me as I haven't really moved.  

[Lothar]

16 hours ago, hw64 said:

About 37% of all domestic cinema screens — 16,284 of 44,111 — are 3D according to the MPA's 2020 report.

 

According to Avatar's opening weekend article on Deadline , Avatar played on 3,129 3D screens and 179 3D IMAX screens in its opening weekend, a total of 3,308 3D screens. Close to 60% of Avatar's opening weekend gross — around $46m — was made from 3D screenings: "Avatar is playing in 3,542 total theaters in North America with 3D presentations at 2,038 sites accounting for almost 60% of the grosses."

 

So running the numbers, with there now being around 5x as many 3D screens as Avatar opened on in 2009 where it made around $46m in 3D — and also taking into account ticket price inflation — I'd say that it's quite comfortably theoretically possible for an $150m all-3D opening.

Why not 200-250mil? 

[Lothar]

The closer we get the bigger the opening predictions we see. 

 

This is going to ruin every single record set in past few years. 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Lothar

[Issac Newton]

Currently, I am thinking about this 🤔

 

Previews : $90-100M

Friday : $160-175M (inc. p.)

Saturday : $140-160M

Sunday : $110-135M

 

How do you all predict as of now?

[Lothar]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Currently, I am thinking about this 🤔

 

Previews : $90-100M

Friday : $160-175M (inc. p.)

Saturday : $140-160M

Sunday : $110-135M

 

How do you all predict as of now?

Reality 

[Tokugennumataka]

15 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Currently, I am thinking about this 🤔

 

Previews : $90-100M

Friday : $160-175M (inc. p.)

Saturday : $140-160M

Sunday : $110-135M

 

How do you all predict as of now?

Good one. Are u aiming for GWTW all time adjusted record with that 410-470M opening? 

[Tokugennumataka]

Previews - $357M

OD - $936M

OW - $1.895B

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Previews - $357M

OD - $936M

OW - $1.895B

Global right?!

[LPLC]

15 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Global right?!

No he's laughing at you because your forecasts are overstated

[john2000]

18 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Previews - $357M

OD - $936M

OW - $1.895B

nah thats way too low ,i would say

 

previews-500M

od-1050M

OW-3.000M

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

OW-3.000M

$3M?

3 minutes ago, LPLC said:

No he's laughing at you because your forecasts are overstated

No I am talking about global OW. My Previews/Friday/Saturday/Sunday numbers including all the international markets (-china) + US

[Tokugennumataka]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

$3M?

No I am talking about global OW. My Previews/Friday/Saturday/Sunday numbers including all the international markets (-china) + US

I don't think anyone ever mentions previews for a global OW. That stat is pretty much meaningless in a prediction. You also have to factor in Wed, Thurs for OS countries. 

[cdsacken]

On 3/10/2022 at 5:58 AM, Brainbug said:

 

Yep, im talking worlwide. And as long as we have no footage (i.e. a trailer and proper marketing) for me Avatar 2 is a huge wildcard that has a range of 1 to 3 Billion worlwide honestly imo. While i understand everyones logic that Cameron will deliver another mass-appealing phenomenon its equally possible that Avatar 2 doesnt resonate with audiences in the same way as the first one did. A trailer could help immenseley with judging this movies potential.

actually me and you are very much on the same page. Only difference is my range is 1.5B to 3.5B. Massive range with tons of variables. 

[cdsacken]

5 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Previews - $357M

OD - $936M

OW - $1.895B

good lord this is like detective pikachu fans after they snorted a ton of coke haha

Edited March 11, 2022 by cdsacken

[XXR vs XXR]

DOM OW Prediction (as of March 11, 2022)

 

Previews: $22M

True Friday: $40M

Saturday: $50M

Sunday: $42M

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1's global opening is give or take five million around 295 million, with inflations it's certainly over 400 million, and a disastrous 120 million china opening weekend gets you over the 500 million line, 

 

Don't think anyone who's serious expects this to open below 1 admissions-wise 

 

As long as nothing goes terribly wrong, a 500 million global opening weekend should be the absolute floor

 

Edit: Im seeing a lot of 150 domestic ow predictions thrown around, that's double the gross but with only about 40% more audience, similar ww improvements (with some assumptions made regarding inflation) get us to 700-800 million global ow, seems like a decent prediction, though im not yet willing to personally go above 700 

Edited March 11, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[BruiseCruise]

100 mil dom OW and then the 2nd weekend drops only 2% and "here we go again"

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

100 mil dom OW and then the 2nd weekend drops only 2% and "here we go again"

Excellent 👍😌

 

Then, Global Opening $200M + 15-20x mulitpler 🌻

[Deuce66]

A little refresher of Avatar's domestic run (first 20 weeks). By comparison Spider Man NWH opened in 4,336 Theaters. The potential is certainly there for a much larger opening however will it have the legs of the first movie? 

 

Week - $ Revenue - % Change - #Theatres

 

Dec 18-24: $137,094,001 - 3,452
Dec 25-31: $146,530,209    +6.9%    3,456
Jan 1-7: $96,916,087    -33.9%    3,461 
Jan 8-14: $69,926,708    -27.8%    3,422
Jan 15-21: $66,330,413    -5.1%    3,285
Jan 22-28: $47,674,969    -28.1%    3,141
Jan 29-Feb 4: $42,020,936    -11.9%    3,074
Feb 5-11: $31,112,330    -26%    3,000
Feb 12-18: $34,115,501    +9.7%    2,685
Feb 19-25:$21,183,640    -37.9%    2,581
Feb 26-Mar 4: $19,584,548    -7.5%    2,456 
Mar 5-11: $11,254,680    -42.5%    2,163
Mar 12-18: $9,136,930    -18.8%    1,718
Mar 19-25: $5,512,102    -39.7%    1,236
Mar 26-Apr 1: $2,959,385    -46.3%    814
Apr 2-8: $1,491,883    -49.6%    511
Apr 9-15: $1,176,131    -21.2%    454
Apr 16-22: $1,424,480    +21.1%    500
Apr 23-29: $1,214,424    -14.7%    421
Apr 30-May 6: $861,973    -29%    387 

 

Total: $747.521 million out of $760.5 final tally. 

[TomCruiseTop]

6 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

100 mil dom OW and then the 2nd weekend drops only 2% and "here we go again"

It will increase.