Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[TomCruiseTop]

49 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I wonder when we’ll get the first teaser. I was going to say MoM but I think the two marvel films will be attached to it.

Not until way later in the year.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

I wonder when we’ll get the first teaser. I was going to say MoM but I think the two marvel films will be attached to it.

Definitely won’t be that soon. Probably around D23 (September).

[Joel M]

Maybe I'm misremembering but Avatar 1 was also shrouded in mystery and promo didn't really start until towards the end of summer. 

 

I assume they 'll do the same thing this time.

[AniNate]

I feel it's possible they may start earlier in the summer since the promotional campaign has more or less kicked off w/ that EW piece, though ofc if they wait till August like the original that wouldn't be a reason to freak out.

[interiorgatordecorator]

Assuming they're serious about a hypothetical september 23rd re-release, they should probably start marketing the re-release in july, trailers for the re-release will probably include a promise of some avatar 2 content attached to the re-release

 

 

 

[Noctis]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is delayed to 2023, but I really hope not. 

 

 

[Brainbug]

Im personally hoping for this just to be an exciting run. Meaning a boring 1,5 Billion would be kind of lackluster, either go full-bananas 2 Billion + or stumble to a measly 1 Billion or below. Both would be massively entertaining to follow for different reasons.

[cdsacken]

52 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Im personally hoping for this just to be an exciting run. Meaning a boring 1,5 Billion would be kind of lackluster, either go full-bananas 2 Billion + or stumble to a measly 1 Billion or below. Both would be massively entertaining to follow for different reasons.

 

Are you talking world wide? I'm pessimistic and I think as long as China goes in heavy it does 2B without much effort. Avatar 1 had incredible world wide appeal. It will do great in South America, all of Asia, amazing in Europe and hell everywhere. Do I think it's a lock to repeat the last one? Nope but it's not impossible either.

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

 

Are you talking world wide? I'm pessimistic and I think as long as China goes in heavy it does 2B without much effort. Avatar 1 had incredible world wide appeal. It will do great in South America, all of Asia, amazing in Europe and hell everywhere. Do I think it's a lock to repeat the last one? Nope but it's not impossible either.

 

Yep, im talking worlwide. And as long as we have no footage (i.e. a trailer and proper marketing) for me Avatar 2 is a huge wildcard that has a range of 1 to 3 Billion worlwide honestly imo. While i understand everyones logic that Cameron will deliver another mass-appealing phenomenon its equally possible that Avatar 2 doesnt resonate with audiences in the same way as the first one did. A trailer could help immenseley with judging this movies potential.

[Deuce66]

The last update we got from Cameron was that Avatar II was done (in the can as they used to say) except for a little bit of CGI work from Weta. The movie is coming out this December barring a catastrophe.

 

Enjoy the break while you can, when the Disney marketing machine gets rolling there will be no escaping the hype.

 

Also if my instincts are correct about where I think the story is going (think a quicker more violent Trail of Tears) the parallels with the current Russia/Ukraine war will be impossible to ignore.

 

 

 

[hw64]

Following on from the conversation in the Shazam thread — and I know it's very early — but I'm curious as to how much people think Avatar 2 is going to open to domestically.

 

Was thinking $130-$160m personally going off of instinct alone, but I haven't adjusted my expectations to current ticket prices so might have to go a bit higher.

 

For reference, the first made $77m on a weekend that was likely muted a little bit by an East coast storm.

[AniNate]

Adjusting 2009 for inflation would mean about a $100 mil opening today. Certainly it's very possible another winter storm hits when this comes out.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Following on from the conversation in the Shazam thread — and I know it's very early — but I'm curious as to how much people think Avatar 2 is going to open to domestically.

 

Was thinking $130-$160m personally going off of instinct alone, but I haven't adjusted my expectations to current ticket prices so might have to go a bit higher.

 

For reference, the first made $77m on a weekend that was likely muted a little bit by an East coast storm.

if I had to enter a contest prediction today, I’d go with $150M.

[interiorgatordecorator]

8 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Following on from the conversation in the Shazam thread — and I know it's very early — but I'm curious as to how much people think Avatar 2 is going to open to domestically.

 

Was thinking $130-$160m personally going off of instinct alone, but I haven't adjusted my expectations to current ticket prices so might have to go a bit higher.

 

For reference, the first made $77m on a weekend that was likely muted a little bit by an East coast storm.

 

Are there enough 3D screens for a 150 million + opening?

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

 

But that's not really based on anything. Yes, Avatar had incredible legs 13 years ago, but a lot of that was due to it becoming a Titanic "we have to go see this movie everyone is seeing" rather than a "holy cow this is the best movie ever". Yes, it can very well open big, but I'm pegging it at topping out at around $100 mil OW. Which would be tremendous for it.

 

2 hours ago, KnucklesXXR said:

This isn’t the Avatar thread so I won’t piggyback off of the comments apart from this…

 

Avatar 2 OW will at least double Avatar’s.

 

42 minutes ago, KnucklesXXR said:

if I had to enter a contest prediction today, I’d go with $150M.

 

Taking the comments from the Shazam 2 thread over here where they belong, my current baseline is around $160m to $165m-ish.

 

But that's BEFORE we see whatever footage is supposed to blow our socks off/Disney hype machine gets going.

 

As for "not being based on anything" @ChipDerby, it's based on Avatar doing $760m unadjusted in the DOM market and it being well thought of despite it being chic to bag on it and say "no one cares about it".

 

I actually do think people care about it.  Maybe not Endgame or even TFA level of care.  But 100m OW?  That's only 10m more than Avatar's OW when 2019 ticket prices are taken into account and very likely on par or probably even under when 2022 ticket prices are used.

 

Being a sequel should mean some level of fan rush even if one thinks the GA needs to be convinced to see it (NOTE: Cameron fans, I'm not saying the GA will be need to convinced, just saying "if").

 

Find it hard to see it going under 140m OW even if a lot of things go wrong between now and Xmas, barring no more COVID waves.

Edited March 10, 2022 by Porthos

[hw64]

54 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Are there enough 3D screens for a 150 million + opening?

 

About 37% of all domestic cinema screens — 16,284 of 44,111 — are 3D according to the MPA's 2020 report.

 

According to Avatar's opening weekend article on Deadline , Avatar played on 3,129 3D screens and 179 3D IMAX screens in its opening weekend, a total of 3,308 3D screens. Close to 60% of Avatar's opening weekend gross — around $46m — was made from 3D screenings: "Avatar is playing in 3,542 total theaters in North America with 3D presentations at 2,038 sites accounting for almost 60% of the grosses."

 

So running the numbers, with there now being around 5x as many 3D screens as Avatar opened on in 2009 where it made around $46m in 3D — and also taking into account ticket price inflation — I'd say that it's quite comfortably theoretically possible for an $150m all-3D opening.

 

That being said, I'm almost certain that Avatar 2 will also release in 2D, and that 2D screenings will make up probably at least 15-20% of its opening weekend gross, so I see absolutely no theoretical barriers to an $150m opening for Avatar 2.

Edited March 10, 2022 by hw64

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I actually do think people care about it.  Maybe not Endgame or even TFA level of care.  But 100m OW?  That's only 10m more than Avatar's OW when 2019 ticket prices are taken into account and very likely on par or probably even under when 2022 ticket prices are used.

 

Being a sequel should mean some level of fan rush even if one thinks the GA needs to be convinced to see it (NOTE: Cameron fans, I'm not saying the GA will be need to convinced, just saying "if").

 

 

Another factor, BTW, is not only are sequels even more frontloaded than they used to be, but one of the reasons why is that Thr previews have been getting more and more insane with every passing year.  More showtimes are being stuffed into Thr than ever before, so much so that they're now spilling into Sat, Tue, and Wed as "Early Screenings".

 

But when Avatar released, it only had midnights. It managed to get 3.5m off of that and I tend to think the Thr number is gonna be a lllleeeeeeeeetle bit higher than 3.5m

 

So even if one is down on the potential of Avatar 2 opening, using its 77m OW as a baseline is flawed simply because it will practically have an extra day in it's "OW" that it didn't have in 2008.

[TheDude391]

I think it'll have a BIG opening weekend but nothing insane which will start to have people freaking out about this underperforming...until the legs kick in on week 2 onwards.

[SchumacherFTW]

150m definitely feels like a good number, that would set it up for around 550m/600m total imo

[TomCruiseTop]

150m OW, 200m second weekend.

 

Funny seeing old doubters come round the closer we get.