Sun#s pg 230...Wknd Est: DOFP: 91M, Godzilla - 31.4M, Blended - 14.2M , NB - 13.9M [NO SPOILERS]

[Hatebox]

JP3's a serviceable 90 minute no-brainer, marred by one of the biggest cop-out endings in movie history.

[pepper83]

Good to see Godzilla tanking ..the movie was awful ...absolutely awful. Dull and boring. Terrible acting.

[AJG]

Good to see Godzilla tanking ..the movie was awful ...absolutely awful. Dull and boring. Terrible acting.

I summon Mulder. ATAAAAAAACK!!!!

[zackzack]

T.rex-Velociraptor-Snake-Cuttlefish hybrid named D-Rex.

 

Oh, no....can't be good...

[BoxOfficeZ]

Oh, no....can't be good...

Wait, that's a joke right?

 

Right? 

[Poseidon]

This must have been the most uneventful may of all times. Damn, no surprises, everything opening in an okay range, but nothing to be excited about.

Take care studios, too many super heroes...

[holcs]

ill say this- i saw Spidey 2 and x men so far and was under whelmed. Big time. I'm seeing godzilla tomorrow. Hopefully it comes through for me cuz spider 2 and x days were just ok 

[holcs]

Guys Im really thinking the movies no one thinks about are going to be the great ones. Like Edge of Tomorrow and Jupiter Ascending.  Well I'm hoping

[filmnerdjamie]

Well deserved for X-Men, after watching it a second time, its even better for me. 

 

Looks like X-Men just destroyed Godzilla though. Any word on TASM2?

 

Good as DOFP was, Godzilla did itself in.

[darkelf]

59 new pages? Nope...

[Heretic]

Rather unspectacular, but by no means bad. Still a strong number for X-Men. I'm tired of this 90m range opening now, though.

[baumer]

Well, at least GODZILLA has pretty well defeated ZILLA 98.. That's positive now isn't it???

 

Not adjusted.  

Not in ticket sales.

[baumer]

The AVENGERS 2 Next May WILL Break box office records and there's just no way it doesn't unles it super sucks bad, but I just don't see that happening with the same formula intact both with the cast and Whedon.. If it were anyone else handling it, then maybe, but as long as Whedon remains on this til after TA3, The numbers will be about the same...

 

No it won't.

[CJohn]

I am not gonna read 60 pages. What the fuck. But those numbers are very disappointed for both considering what was here last night.

Edited May 24, 2014 by CJohn

[baumer]

What was that about 65% being impossible B? Jeeze $8m is terrible but my read was right on here.

 

Yep, I guess I should never use impossible in a movie forum.  I'm stunned it fell THAT much.  But glad at the same time.  

[baumer]

Also why are we using Nikki's word as the definite?

 

Because it's 2:30 in the AM on the east coast.....she's usually pretty accurate at this time of the night.

[Quigley]

 

I maintain that it'll have a bigger drop than Pirates 4 during the holiday weekend. It started higher during the weekend but they both earned essentially the same amount on their first Thursday.

 

 

Yes! My predictions came true. It turns out this comparison has been appopriate as I've pointed out before:

 

 

Anything could happen from now on. I will compare Godzilla with Pirates of the Caribbean: On Strander Tides for the following reasons:

a) They had the same CinemaScore (B+)

b ) They both have an opening weekend between $90-95M

c) They opened on the weekend before Memorial Day weekend

d) They have similar post-release competition: Pirates 4 had Hangover 2 (comedy, not 3D), Kung Fu Panda 2 (family film, 3D) and X-Men: First Class (superhero, not 3D). Godzilla has Blended and A Million Ways to Die in the West (two lower-profile comedies, both not 3D), Maleficent (arguably a family film, 3D) and X-Men: Days of Future Past (superhero, 3D)

 

Pirates 4 had a OW-to-total ratio of 241.1 / 90.15 = 2.67. A similar multiplier will give Godzilla a gross of 93.2 * 2.67 = $248.8M

However, the negative buzz for Godzilla seems to be more abundant, i.e. the ones who didn't like it seem to be more vocal about it on the internet (indicated by the bigger-than-expected Friday-to-Saturday drop). Since this one is driven by fanboys more than Pirates 4 and since fanboys use the internet more than any other demographic group for film reception, I think the multiplier will be slightly lower. Godzilla will also lose more 3D screens in the coming weeks and that will continue due to Edge of Tomorrow and How to Train Your Dragon 2. A mulitplier between 2.4x and 2.6x will give it $223M-$243M and I believe it will end up within this range.

 

However, Godzilla had such a big drop that maybe the multiplier will be even smaller. I think $220M is now a slightly optimistic prediction but we'll have to wait until the end of this weekend to say for sure.

[cookie]

JP3 is boring, that makes it worse.

Excuse me, but if there's any JP that's boring it's TLW.

[baumer]

Lol if SM2 had faced Xmen it wouldnt make even 190Mil.. I give Godzilla full credit and we should

still beat SM2 Domestically

 

Yea, lol, you were wrong about the 110 mill by 17 mill.

And your 300 mill prediction is also way off.  

 

[Lordmandeep]

DOFP is heading for 100 million in China.

 

 

Looks like China is really helping out films this year.

 

I imagine TF4 in China will more then make up for any decrease domestically.