Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW

[Ent]

Great analysis but you lost me when you said 550m was the floor domestically.

 

If it open around $220M, i just don't see it missing it.

 

TA reached and passed $500M in 23 days, three weeks and one day. 

 

It opened on May the 4th, 3 days earlier than AOU and before entering June  where it added another $100M during that second month.

 

Again, if it open around $220M, 3 days before TA did in May 2012, and with Memorial Day, i dont see it entering june with less than $500M (at least north of it). 

 

That would mean reaching $500M a week after TA did (perfectly doable with that type of opening and being a sequel, hence frontloaded) and then, doing half the job TA did in June for the rest of its whole run, during the next three months.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Ent

[redfirebird2008]

If it open around $220M, i just don't see it missing it.

 

TA reached and passed $500M in 23 days, three weeks and one day. 

 

It opened on May the 4th, 3 days earlier than AOU and before entering June  where it added another $100M during that second month.

 

Again, if it open around $220M, 3 days before TA did in May 2012, and with Memorial Day, i dont see it entering june with less than $500M (at least north of it). 

 

That would mean reaching $500M a week after TA did (perfectly doable with that type of opening and being a sequel, hence frontloaded) and then, doing half the job TA did in June for the rest of its whole run, during the next three months.

 

There are no guarantees it will have a 2.5 multiplier. IM3 opened on the same weekend and had a 2.35 multiplier. THAT is the floor multiplier to me.  

[Ent]

There are no guarantees it will have a 2.5 multiplier. IM3 opened on the same weekend and had a 2.35 multiplier. THAT is the floor multiplier to me.  

 

True, NOTHING is guaranteed. 

 

But let see, if it opens at $220M then lowballing all the rest.  It can add $70M on the next weekdays and $85M on the second weekend putting it at $375M on May the 10th.

 

It will then have exactly three whole weeks, Memorial weekend included to add another $125M or at least approach it and reach $500M.

 

So to me reaching $500M while entering June or even hitting it in the first week of June, make it nearly impossible to not add another $50M during the rest of its run.

 

To me either it collapses from the get go during the first half of May or it continue doing decent job to reach that number. 

 

After all if TA had a 3X multiplier, its sequel can very much have  a 2.5 one, which is much lower than the first movie anyway.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Ent

[redfirebird2008]

True, NOTHING is guaranteed. 

 

But let see, if it opens at $220M then lowballing all the rest.  It can add $70M on the next weekdays and $85M on the second weekend putting it at $375M on May the 10th.

 

It will then have exactly three whole weeks, Memorial weekend included to add another $125M or at least approach it and reach $500M.

 

So to me reaching $500M while entering June or even hitting it in the first week of June, make it nearly impossible to not add another $50M during the rest of its run.

 

To me either it collapses from the get go during the first half of May or it continue doing decent job to reach that number. 

 

After all if TA had a 3X multiplier, its sequel can very much have  a 2.5 one, which is much lower than the first movie anyway.

 

It could hit a 2.5+ or it might not. TA1 had phenomenal WOM. So did IM1, which actually had a better multiplier than TA1 (thanks in large part to the fact it opened half as big, so easier to achieve a bigger multi). Look at the multipliers of IM1's sequels. Not so hot because the WOM wasn't even close to the same. The critics aren't the be all, end all but even looking at fan reactions so far the WOM is not in the same ballpark as TA1. We'll see how it plays out, but I think a 2.5 multi would be a very good result after such a huge opening.

[Wally]

You have an interesting definition of unfair. Why would that be?

FF7 is trash. Pure trash. Expendables kind of trash. 

 

It only got good reviews because of the Paul Walker eulogy at the end imo.

[POTUS 2020]

	OS-C	China	OS	Dom	WW
AxelSteal	850.0	300.0	1150.0	650.0	1800.0
Quigley			1120.0	630.0	1750.0
The Stingray	850.0	300.0	1150.0	500.0	1650.0
Infernus	800.0	285.0	1085.0	565.0	1650.0
Ent			1100.0	550.0	1650.0
AD3S			1000.0	590.0	1590.0
Johnny Storm	810.0	215.0	1025.0	525.0	1550.0
peludo	750.0	275.0	1025.0	525.0	1550.0
Keysersoze	750.0	300.0	1050.0	500.0	1550.0
Deathlife			1010.0	525.0	1535.0
Cynosure	750.0	250.0	1000.0	525.0	1525.0
Katch 22	800.0	200.0	1000.0	520.0	1520.0
No Prisoners	725.0	250.0	975.0	500.0	1475.0

 

 

 

Interesting, unanimous(besides me) it beats 1B OS and beats TA1 and FF7 WW. 

All but 2~ say it loses to FF7 in OS,

All but 2 believe it it dips in DOM

 

Anyone else before 6pm Thursday EST?(changed time)

Edited April 29, 2015 by No Prisoners

[Cynosure]

France - 7 day total :

 

AVENGERS, L'ERE D'ULTRON : 1 926 049 admissions

[picores]

OS: 750

CHINA: 300

OS: 1050

DOM: 550

WW: 1600

[mmacader]

DOM - 650

OS - 900

CHINA - 300

WW - 1850

[Fake]

OS : 800

China: 250

DOM: 500

[fmpro]

OS 815

China 265

DOM 575

WW 1665

Edited April 29, 2015 by fmpro

[faanai]

Disney executive came out to announce Avengers 2 box office was 44% over Avengers 1 and 24% over Iron Man 3. That smells like impulse purchase marketing to push the opening weekend up by $100 million to $200 million to me. I am not buying that. The movie has a 20 week run. If the movie is good, it will be good after 10 weeks as well. I will wait for 10 weeks for the impulse purchase marketing effect to wane and if the movie is still good at that time, I will go and see it.

[ecstasy]

Disney executive came out to announce Avengers 2 box office was 44% over Avengers 1 and 24% over Iron Man 3. That smells like impulse purchase marketing to push the opening weekend up by $100 million to $200 million to me. I am not buying that. The movie has a 20 week run. If the movie is good, it will be good after 10 weeks as well. I will wait for 10 weeks for the impulse purchase marketing effect to wane and if the movie is still good at that time, I will go and see it.

[fmpro]

Disney executive came out to announce Avengers 2 box office was 44% over Avengers 1 and 24% over Iron Man 3. That smells like impulse purchase marketing to push the opening weekend up by $100 million to $200 million to me. I am not buying that. The movie has a 20 week run. If the movie is good, it will be good after 10 weeks as well. I will wait for 10 weeks for the impulse purchase marketing effect to wane and if the movie is still good at that time, I will go and see it.

What a first post!!

[Caboose]

Disney executive came out to announce Avengers 2 box office was 44% over Avengers 1 and 24% over Iron Man 3. That smells like impulse purchase marketing to push the opening weekend up by $100 million to $200 million to me. I am not buying that. The movie has a 20 week run. If the movie is good, it will be good after 10 weeks as well. I will wait for 10 weeks for the impulse purchase marketing effect to wane and if the movie is still good at that time, I will go and see it.

 

[samsha22]

Dom- 505, China 235, OS - 950 , ww 1455

[redfirebird2008]

Disney executive came out to announce Avengers 2 box office was 44% over Avengers 1 and 24% over Iron Man 3. That smells like impulse purchase marketing to push the opening weekend up by $100 million to $200 million to me. I am not buying that. The movie has a 20 week run. If the movie is good, it will be good after 10 weeks as well. I will wait for 10 weeks for the impulse purchase marketing effect to wane and if the movie is still good at that time, I will go and see it.

 

 

[MattW]

OW - 210

Dom - 525

China - 300

Rest - 800

WW - 1625

[Neo]

Seems its holding up in SK so the doom and gloom was the pessimists.

[Ent]

Seems its holding up in SK so the doom and gloom was the pessimists.

 

It was always too premature to panic one way or another. 

 

You need at the very least two weekends of collecting data to track any kind of firm tendencies