dxmatrixdt Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 RE-ADJUSTED MY ESTIMATES Hunger Games 3: Mockingjay - 4,151 locations - $13,250 average - 55.00 / 80.01 - 223.02 total Penguins of Madagascar - 3764 locations - $10,000 average - 37.64 / 50.14 - 50.14 total Horrible Bosses 2 - 3,375 locations - $5,970 average - 20.15 / 30.43 - 30.43 total Big Hero 6 - 3,365 locations - $5,700 average - 19.12 / 26.58 - 167.78 total Interstellar - 3,066 locations - $5,300 average - 16.25 / 22.38 - 147.46 total Dumb and Dumber 2 - 3,130 locations - $3,950 average - 12.36 / 16.90 - 77.48 total The Theory of Everything - 802 locations - $5,410 average - 4.32 / 5.78 - 8.95 total Gone Girl - 1,174 locations - $2,739 average - 3.22 / 4.15 - 161.65 total Beyond the Lights - 1,187 locations - $2,110 average - 2.50 / 3.23 - 13.92 total St. Vincent - 1,256 locations - $1,630 average - 2.05 / 2.78 - 39.77 total Birdman - 710 locations - $2,936 average - 2.08 / 2.76 - 17.59 total Fury - 994 locations - $1,925 average - 1.91 / 2.53 - 82.29 total Nightcrawler - 570 locations - $1,610 average - 0.92 / 1.23 - 28.74 total The Judge - 415 locations - $1,335 average - 0.55 / 0.74 - 46.20 total John Wick - 488 locations - $1,090 average - 0.53 / 0.70 - 41.55 total Alexander ... - 376 locations - $1,230 average - 0.46 / 0.61 - 64.17 total Ouija - 455 locations - $860 average - 0.39 / 0.51 - 50.33 total The Equalizer - 397 locations - $825 average - 0.33 / 0.43 - 99.80 total Book of Life - 279 locations - $900 average - 0.25 / 0.35 - 48.40 total The Maze Runner - 275 locations - $935 average - 0.26 / 0.35 - 100.94 total The Boxtrolls - 266 locations - $775 average - 0.21 / 0.27 - 49.82 total Annabelle - 171 locations - $655 average - 0.112 / 0.150 - 84.18 total The Best of Me - 165 locations - $670 average - 0.11 / 0.15 - 26.44 total Dolphin Tale 2 - 145 locations - $655 average - 0.095 / 0.12 - 42.00 total Dracula Untold - 102 locations - $665 average - 0.068 / 0.091 - 56.065 total Addicted - 43 locations - $560 average - 0.024 / 0.033 - 17.384 total This is Where I leave You ?? +30k?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I forgot, but if MJ1 follows CF, what is the projected finish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melvin Frohike Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 (edited) Penguins will be pretty average in box office in the end. This kind of "average" isn't nearly good enough for a movie with this kind of budget, though. Unless it explodes OS DreamWorks Animation is in trouble again. Hey, it's probably no secret that I'm not exactly a fan, but I don't want to see them go out like this...or for their jobs to be outsourced, for that matter. And remember when (supposedly) killing Metro Man made Megamind all miserable? Yeah, that sort of thing. Following Catching Fire gives MJ1 a 75-80M 5 day. Following Rise of Guardians gives Penguins a 46-50M 5 day and Horrible Bosses 2 should get a 30M 5 day. Using the Wednesday OD multipliers (Thanksgiving) of Rise of the Guardians, Penguins of Madagascar could have a $34.4M 3-day and a $46.8M 5-day OW gross, which is not very good, especially for a sequel (well, spin-off, but it's not really new). In fact, being a sequel might well imply a lower OD multiplier, which would mean lower OW grosses and that DWA is really in trouble with this. Using Madagascar 3's OW multiplier, which is really quite good for a sequel, we're talking about a $123M final DOM gross for Penguins of Madagascar--not much better than what Mr. Peabody & Sherman was able to do, and this is using favorable multipliers. Unless the Wednesday estimates are completely off, they'd better hope that it performs MUCH better OS. Hopefully Big Hero 6 survived the hit from Penguins of Madagascar. If so, it can hold itself until Annie hits. Shouldn't be a problem, at least by the estimates we have so far for its most direct competition--if it falters it won't be because of this. As for Annie, who knows, but that's three weeks away, and there should be some room around the holidays unless one of the family movies breaks out massively. Edited November 27, 2014 by Melvin Frohike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 We won't really know Penguins' trajectory until Friday. So long as it's well above Rise of the Guardians right now they're fine. Stupid release date for HB2, but I don't kbow who really wanted this sequel in the first place. Mockingjay is going to crumble pretty quickly. It doesn't lend itself to repeat viewings at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 If those updated #s stick, that's great for DaDT!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitik Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot, on 26 Nov 2014 - 11:11 PM, said: I forgot, but if MJ1 follows CF, what is the projected finish? I just did the calculation, and if it follows CF from Wednesday onwards, it will finish with 309M. (Someone feel free to doublecheck my math.) That said, that 14.5 Wednesday is nowhere near official, so don't put much stock in the 309 number. But Mockingjay Part 1 better make more than 14.5 on Wednesday. If it comes in at 14.5 exactly, I would not say 300 is locked. Which just can't be right, so I expect the final numbers to bump up well over 15M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I just did the calculation, and if it follows CF from Wednesday onwards, it will finish with 309M. (Someone feel free to doublecheck my math.) That said, that 14.5 Wednesday is nowhere near official, so don't put much stock in the 309 number. But Mockingjay Part 1 better make more than 14.5 on Wednesday. If it comes in at 14.5 exactly, I would not say 300 is locked. Which just can't be right, so I expect the final numbers to bump up well over 15M. Yup, with a 14.5M Wednesday, 300M will be a tough ask. But the weekend is still to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I could do the math... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cory Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 (edited) My CF comp gives $306 with that Wednesday number My WIR comp for BH6 gives $233 with a $5m Wed. BH6's week 3 pta is almost 50% higher than Ralph's in 10% more theaters. Edited November 27, 2014 by cory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 MJ1 14.5 mill Penguins 7mill HB2 5 mill Hope those numbers all go up, that's pretty weak across the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 My CF comp gives $306 with that Wednesday number My WIR comp for BH6 gives $233 with a $5m Wed. BH6's week 3 pta is almost 50% higher than Ralph's in 10% more theaters. You are expecting BH6 to increase 55% on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cory Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 ha, I kept reading HB2 as BH6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Actually a bit lower than DH1's Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dingdong123 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Come on Baymax, come through those Penguins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 (edited) We had already gotten Rth's Wednesday number at the same time this year. http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/index.php?/topic/12904-monster-tuesday-cf-161-rth-ed-did-what-to-a-girl/page-39#entry1134862 For now going to go with Wed CF 22m,Froz 14-15m,Thor2 2.7m Edited November 27, 2014 by Mojoguy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 (edited) Yuck, that would be the first truly disappointing hold for MJ1 compared to CF if it doesn't end up a solid 1m higher. Tuesday looked so promising too. Numbers are still early though. Penguins would do about 150m if it held the same as Rise of the Guardians off of that OD. Not that we could remotely determine that it will of course. Edited November 27, 2014 by MovieMan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
picores Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Perfectly fine number for Penguins if holds. A total of 125-150m looks in order, an expected range since a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Perfectly fine number for Penguins if holds. A total of 125-150m looks in order, an expected range since a year ago. Beating Puss in Boots would be impressive since the Madagascar franchise is nowhere near as big as Shrek was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidey Freak Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Beating Puss in Boots would be impressive since the Madagascar franchise is nowhere near as big as Shrek was. But Puss came after the lowest grossing Shrek and Penguins comes after the highest grossing Madagascar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 But Puss came after the lowest grossing Shrek and Penguins comes after the highest grossing Madagascar. Yeah, but even Shrek's lowest grossing beats Madagascar's highest. So again, way bigger franchise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
