Juby Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Thanks for answer. So, $850-900 mln from current markets + $150-200 mln from China = $1-1,1 mld OS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Still believe in $1b OS without China at the least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 15 minutes ago, Onri said: Looks like total collapse is only in Russia LOL World, whats wrong with you? We are the country where even Victor Frankenstein, In the heart of the sea and The last witch hunter made money. And we totally ignore SW7 after it's (record) opening what do u mean by collapse? 60% drop? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moses Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think 1 billion plus 250 million china 850 Million dom 2.1 Billion total Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 $850 mln DOM? After this weekend i will say $900 mln is locked! DOM - $900 mln +OS - $1.2 mld =WW - $2,1 mld Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Guys, $1b DOM is locked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PanaMovie Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think 400M+ current markets and 150M+ from China So around 1.1B OS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
townzy89 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 hours ago, Elessar said: And TFA benefits from expanded markets. What markets have expanded since 2009 drastically except China?... Russia a little? Whereas in Australia Avatar made $115mAUD = $105mUSD Star Wars on Track for $120mAUD but only $85mUSD Highest all time Australian movie but loses to Avatar by 20% because of the shitty exchange rates, extrapolate this across the world and instead of $1b os without China it would have been close to 1.3 - 1.4b and would have been very close to beating Avatar WW 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
townzy89 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 hour ago, fmpro said: It wont get near 300 mill in China. Maybe half On track for 150m OW in China Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 14 minutes ago, townzy89 said: What markets have expanded since 2009 drastically except China?... Russia a little? Whereas in Australia Avatar made $115mAUD = $105mUSD Star Wars on Track for $120mAUD but only $85mUSD Highest all time Australian movie but loses to Avatar by 20% because of the shitty exchange rates, extrapolate this across the world and instead of $1b os without China it would have been close to 1.3 - 1.4b and would have been very close to beating Avatar WW Avatar would have probably made much more than $200m in China today. That alone might have made up for loss because of exchange rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mepal1 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 SWTFA is also doing amazing BO in the UK, setting records over the Xmas period as well, film is currently on around $97 mil, and will pass $100 mil in a days time? Then its going to be chasing Titanic, Avatar, and the 2 Bonds Spectre and Skyfall, to become alltime champ here in the UK. Current No.1 film Skyfall did around $160 mil in 2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 On 12/26/2015 at 7:47 PM, titanic2187 said: 33 minutes ago, townzy89 said: What markets have expanded since 2009 drastically except China?... Russia a little? Whereas in Australia Avatar made $115mAUD = $105mUSD Star Wars on Track for $120mAUD but only $85mUSD Highest all time Australian movie but loses to Avatar by 20% because of the shitty exchange rates, extrapolate this across the world and instead of $1b os without China it would have been close to 1.3 - 1.4b and would have been very close to beating Avatar WW I totally agree, market expansion is a no factor here. There might be some markets which have expanded in local currency, but absolutely none other than China has expanded in US $. Most have dropped dramatically actually. Here are the exchange rates on 27/12/2015 and 27/12/2009: http://www.x-rates.com/historical/?from=USD&amount=1&date=2015-12-27 http://www.x-rates.com/historical/?from=USD&amount=1&date=2009-12-2 The Russian Ruble for example has collapsed (-58%) since then. TFA would have currently made 42.6m there, rather than 18m. Same with the Brazilian real (-55%), the Euro (-24%), the British Pound (-7%), the Australian dollar (-27%), the Japanese Yen (-24%) and many others. That means it has potentially made $200mln less than it would have made with 2009 ER, just from these first twelve days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 42 minutes ago, Elessar said: Avatar would have probably made much more than $200m in China today. That alone might have made up for loss because of exchange rates. When Avatar was released in China the alltime number 1 was Transformers 2 with $66m. Avatar did $204m and now the alltime number 1 is Monster Hunt with almost $400m... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 12 minutes ago, Agafin said: I totally agree, market expansion is a no factor here. It is a factor. No market has made strides like China but Latin America and some parts of Asia have grown. So just adjusting for exchange rates without taking that into account would be one sided. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just guessed on the Saturday/Sunday split for both weekends. Look about right? (dat cume on Saturday night....lol) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 28 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: When Avatar was released in China the alltime number 1 was Transformers 2 with $66m. Avatar did $204m and now the alltime number 1 is Monster Hunt with almost $400m... Not to take anything away from Avatar, but it ran for two months in China,...instead of the usual single month that movies like Monster Hunt or F7 had. 22 minutes ago, Elessar said: It is a factor. No market has made strides like China but Latin America and some parts of Asia have grown. So just adjusting for exchange rates without taking that into account would be one sided. Just like I said, they grew in local currency only. A market like Brazil, Mexico or Russia would need to be literally bigger than in 2009 by a factor of 2 or 3 to offset the effect of ER. Is that the case? Of course no. Also, TFA is more of a beast in mature markets than in expanding ones. Of its $544.6 million OS haul, about $389mln is from Europe+Australia+Japan. So with those market at least ( which make up over 70% of its current OS total ), adjusting for exchange rates only, is pretty fair. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poseidon Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 3 hours ago, peludo said: exchange rates I do not want to disminish what Avatar did. It was monstruous. But it is not an exact comparison. Well, i was searching for pictures of Avatar-Tickets. Found 2. Same movie, same day, same time, same format (3D/2D/IMAX) In both cases, the ticket for SW7 was $3,50 higher then it was for Avatar. In Germany, you have at least another 2€ extra compared to back then. So much for bad exchange rates. Ticket Price Inflation after Avatar was ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhsn Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It will do very well in China now that they have had the time to build up the hype. $300 million may very well happen there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 32 minutes ago, Poseidon said: Well, i was searching for pictures of Avatar-Tickets. Found 2. Same movie, same day, same time, same format (3D/2D/IMAX) In both cases, the ticket for SW7 was $3,50 higher then it was for Avatar. In Germany, you have at least another 2€ extra compared to back then. So much for bad exchange rates. Ticket Price Inflation after Avatar was ridiculous. But what was the 3D ratio for Avatar and which is for Star Wars? In last 6 years prices have risen, sure. But Avatar was mainly seen in 3D, what meant a huge difference. I can give you an example: in Spain the average ticket price for Avatar was €8.10 (77 million euros and 9.5 million admissions). 6 years later, the average ticket price of Star Wars is, for the moment, €7.19. With that average ticket price, Avatar would had grossed today €68 million, what means $74.45m (1€=1.09$), not the $110m (1€=1.43$) that it really did. $36m gap just in Spain... But even if we consider just the 77 million euros it really did, that would mean today $84m, not the $110m reported. $26m gap in just one country. The proportion is, of course, the same for the rest of Eurozone countries. And the problem is more improtant in Australia, Russia, Brazil or Japan, where the loss of value of their currencies is about 50%. There has not been 50% inflation in last 6 years to compensate it. Not even close. Another example. Avatar was estimated to have sold 76 million admissions in USA, so the average ticket price for it was $10. The average ticket price today is $8.34. With a lower 3D ration, average ticket price for Star Wars is, at most, similar than Avatar's, but not higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onri Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 (edited) On 27.12.2015 at 10:58 PM, titanic2187 said: what do u mean by collapse? 60% drop? 72% by estimates Moana Frozen Tangled Previews - 107 M₽ - OW, ₽ 335 M₽ 332 M₽ 277 M₽ OW, $ 5,2 M$ 10,2 M$ 8,9 M$ Admissions (OW) 1,39M 1,38M 1,23M Ticket price 241,6₽ 241,7₽ 226₽ Show times 38K 28K N/A Edited December 6, 2016 by Onri Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...