MONDAY ACTUALS: AGE OF ULTRON - 13.23M (Normal -74% Drop)

[Dark Jedi Master 007]

Over-reactions.... over-reactions everywhere.

TA2 is gonna be just fine.

But the people who predicted $500M+ aren't going to be fine.

 

 

In all seriousness, this might even miss TDKR's number (unlikely), which would be an insane drop-off considering that the last one made way more than TDK, and TA2 also has 3D going for it.

 

Edited May 5, 2015 by Dark Jedi Master 007

[John Wars]

with the marketing campaign and its wom, TDK would have done 400m+

Edited May 5, 2015 by JOHN OF STEEL

[redfirebird2008]

But the people who predicted $500M+ aren't going to be fine.

 

 

In all seriousness, this might even miss TDKR's number (unlikely), which would be an insane drop-off considering that the last one made way more than TDK, and TA2 also has 3D going for it.

 

 

I'd be very surprised if it can't at least get to $450m. That's IM3 multiplier, which is very doable. With less competition than IM3, it shouldn't have much trouble getting there.

[kayumanggi]

What if the actual number is 12.7 M? 

[Noctis]

$475m is the goal, IMO.

[PDC1987]

It's an unfair advantage because it raised double-standards across the table. People forgave every flaw in the movie because according to them 'The last scene is soooooo beautiful.. *wipes some tears*".

 

Sorry I know most people don't see it that way but that's how I see it and I'm just being honest.

And every wide release film has an "unfair advantage" over limited releases.

 

It's simply the industry. Nobody MADE people go see TDK or F7.

[Jessie]

People want 500m domestic and this Monday number is not helping

500m was out of the question as soon as this weekend's estimates were in

[Dark Jedi Master 007]

I'd be very surprised if it can't at least get to $450m. That's IM3 multiplier, which is very doable. With less competition than IM3, it shouldn't have much trouble getting there.

I expect it to get there as well.

Also, when I first wrote that post, I thought TDKR had made $460m. Then after a quick check, I realized it was $447m or so, which is why I threw in the "unlikely."

 

Still, it is a large drop from the last one, which means nothing to Marvel, but is slightly disappointing.

 

[redfirebird2008]

500m was out of the question as soon as this weekend's estimates were in

 

I wouldn't say that. It is still too early to know. Maybe the weekend will be $90m or something. Just have to see how things play out but $500m is not dead yet IMHO. It's not likely, but it's not dead either.

[4815162342]

Hey look, more Ledger debates.

[Godzilla]

People need to stop declaring anything from Monday numbers.... From all we know it could be more of a weekend movie.

[vc2002]

No it wouldn't have, 100m opening and prob 350-380m finish sounds more likely, that's still a massive increase over its predecessor and would suggest Heaths death added around 50% to its total, much like Furious 7

 

TDKR hit 449m because people liked the predecessor. Heaths death made people watch TDK and TDK's quality made people turn up for the sequel which was well received and still came no way near TDK's gross. Even without the shootings it will have come very short. 400m for TDK wasn't ever happening

 

According to BOM, Batman 1989 made 450m adjusted for 2008's ticket price inflation. Batman was once the peak of SH movies before Spiderman kickstarted the new SH explosion. TDK was another peak after Spiderman. Batman 1989 sold around 62m tickets and TDK sold around 72m. If we have to measure the impact of Ledger's death, the best we can do is to assume that you dont reach a new peak easily, you don't suddenly sell 10m more tickets unless there is an extra bump, and that extra bump is Ledger's death. So 450m is the closest case had Ledger not passed away, IMO.

 

Personally I think the impact should even be smaller. Ledger's performace is something we never seen in a SH movie, and the way TDK being so well received went beyond just a SH movie is a rare case too. These also provided great help for TDK to set a height for SH movies.

Edited May 5, 2015 by vc2002

[JohnnyGossamer]

$475m is the goal, IMO.

At this current juncture, that's fair.

[KATCH-2D2]

Movies have always relied on WOM and hype as the two primary ways to make money. Even going back to the days of the movie in my avatar. Universal hype the shit out of their monster movies back then, especially the sequels after earlier films like Dracula and Frankenstein became huge WOM hits.

Keyword is "too much for my liking". Of course movies in the past relied on WOM and hype too but without social media WOM didn't travel fast enough to cut movies' leg right off and without free download option people needed to pay to see the movies that appealed to them regardless of hype and WOM.

[grim22]

Both Avengers and IM3 earned 66% of their Monday number on Thursday after diverging through the rest of the week. If AOU follows that same pattern, then it will earn 8.45M on Thursday. This can give a 80-90M second weekend.

[Sam]

Aaaand it went downhill fast. Oh boy.

[CJohn]

Both Avengers and IM3 earned 66% of their Monday number on Thursday after diverging through the rest of the week. If AOU follows that same pattern, then it will earn 8.45M on Thursday. This can give a 80-90M second weekend.

80-90M 2nd weekend would be fantastic.

[Ozymandias]

I'd rather talk about Potter than more Heath Ledger debates and why TDK made what it did.

[John Marston]

TDK? Wouldn't have made 400m without Heath's death????? lol lol

[Jandrew]

Guardians 2 is 100% going to be heavily overpredicted with everyone assuming an increase, I can already feel it. There's a charming smugness to the first one that's very delicate, it'll be super hard to get just right again

Yeah thats the good and bad about this weekend.

Good: We have seen that nothing is set in stone, and what looks too high, likely is too high. And patterns can be broken.

Bad: We're still gonna overpedict everything anyway for various reasons.