Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[Noctis]

Wizarding World as a brand is very far from hot? LOL

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Wizarding World as a brand is very far from hot? LOL

Come on! You can perfectly get what I want to say. Is it that hot as it was in late 00's - early 10's? There were nearly 4 years when nothing related to HP happened. 

[RobinHood26]

4 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

But isn't Star Wars supposed to be a far more hot brand now than Harry Potter when Fantastic Beasts came out? I just can't understand your reasoning would you mind helping me? I mean HP brand is far from very hot right now. The brand peaked during 00's and early 10's. Those who watched Fantastic Beasts were mostly loyal fans. If Fantastic Beasts was released in 2010 (because TFA is not the last SW) for example it would have still gotten the loyal fans but I believe that the there would be more GA support as the HP brand would be more relevant. Again I may be mistaken in something. 

 

First off, Harry Potter is fucking HARRY POTTER. Its huge. just as big as Star Wars OS really.

 

 

But lets not forget its only been a year since star wars, and the movies plot of where it takes place was a tough sell, and this is a TRUE one off.  Fantastic Beasts is the start of a SERIES, and its 5.5 years since the last Potter Film. 

 

If it had been 5.5 years since Episode 7 and not another Star Wars movie came out until Rogue One, you think it would do the same OS now? no way. 5.5 years of hype vs. 1 

 

 

 

 

Also it doesn't help that the only 3 Star Wars films released in the true World Wide markets of the new Millennium at one point were absolute shit hahaha not a great reintroduction for people around the world. 

[RobinHood26]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

Come on! You can perfectly get what I want to say. Is it that hot as it was in late 00's - early 10's? There were nearly 4 years when nothing related to HP happened. 

 

Harry Potter is hoenslty bigger today. Not as noticeably rabid, but the fanbase is much larger and has grown/expanded to other generations since. 

[RobinHood26]

Oh and sorry but I must take my moment to shine, never did.

 

@James I told you before TFA opened it would outgross all the Hobbit movies in you're country you laughed at me for months leading up, saying no one cares for star wars, and BOOM, 2nd biggest movie of all time there. 

 

Sorry had to have my moment. 

Edited January 7, 2017 by Jay Hollywood

[FantasticBeasts]

5 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

First off, Harry Potter is fucking HARRY POTTER. Its huge. just as big as Star Wars OS really.

 

 

But lets not forget its only been a year since star wars, and the movies plot of where it takes place was a tough sell, and this is a TRUE one off.  Fantastic Beasts is the start of a SERIES, and its 5.5 years since the last Potter Film. 

 

If it had been 5.5 years since Episode 7 and not another Star Wars movie came out until Rogue One, you think it would do the same OS now? no way. 5.5 years of hype vs. 1 

 

 

 

 

Also it doesn't help that the only 3 Star Wars films released in the true World Wide markets of the new Millennium at one point were absolute shit hahaha not a great reintroduction for people around the world. 

Fair enough points. I still have some objections but OK.

 

5 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

Harry Potter is hoenslty bigger today. Not as noticeably rabid, but the fanbase is much larger and has grown/expanded to other generations since. 

I never talked about the fanbase. I was talking about the relevance to the general public. Harry Potter was everywhere in late 00's. For the last 5 years the buzz was much less.

[Hades]

Not sure why some are making excuses. The overseas performance is  weak. Star Wars is pretty much only really consistently big in UK, Australia, Japan and the domestic market. The Han Solo film will barely make the top ten worldwide next year. 

[Cynosure]

Star Wars is only bigger than Potter in the domestic market and maybe in a few other select countries. Different tastes for different people. It happens.

[George Parr]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

But isn't Star Wars supposed to be a far more hot brand now than Harry Potter when Fantastic Beasts came out? I just can't understand your reasoning would you mind helping me? I mean HP brand is far from very hot right now. The brand peaked during 00's and early 10's. Those who watched Fantastic Beasts were mostly loyal fans. If Fantastic Beasts was released in 2010 (because TFA is not the last SW) for example it would have still gotten the loyal fans but I believe that the there would be more GA support as the HP brand would be more relevant. Again I may be mistaken in something. 

 

No, very much the opposite. At least when it comes to the international markets. It's Harry Potter that is the recent thing.

 

Star Wars formed its fanbase in the 70s and 80s. It blew everyone away at that time and became ingrained in the culture of the countries where movies were big at that time. You can still see that it is big in the markets it first succeeded in, renewing its fanbase in the process. The problem is, there are plenty of markets which weren't that big at that time, which either developed by now or are still relatively minor. Star Wars couldn't really make much of an impact there back when it came out. By the time the markets had become big enough, the old Star Wars movies weren't exactly state of the art anymore, regardless of how far ahead they were in their time. You basically have lots of markets in Asia or South America where Star Wars hovers between meh / solid / very good, depending on the market in question, simply because Star Wars couldn't make an impact at the time where its impact would have been the biggest. If you look a market like China, the original movies obviously played no role, and the prequels also came out at a time where China's market was still very minor.

 

This causes a split in the international markets. On the one hand you have the "original" markets - some of which are simply gigantic, some being merely very good - which have been living with Star Wars since the beginning, on the other hand you have the markets where Star Wars wasn't a thing back in the days. These are the places that deliver fairly average numbers for a blockbuster franchise.

 

Harry Potter is very much the opposite. For one, it's a book-series turned into a movie-series. It's quite easy for books to spread all over the world, movies have a much harder time getting everywhere. But more importantly, Harry Potter is a fairly recent thing. It's not something that wowed everyone 30-40 years ago, it is something that came around in the late 90s and stuck around until a few years ago (counting the main series). All the rising markets basically grew up with it, as did those who were already big in the first place. It's not something that was already old when certain markets started to explode.

 

In other words: Star Wars had its origin and its peak - if you want to call it as such - in the late 70s and early 80s. It can continue to build on what it caused back then, but its peak didn't match with the development of certain markets, which is why it isn't big there. Harry Potter had its peak in the 2000s, very much matching the development of rising markets.

[FantasticBeasts]

9 minutes ago, George Parr said:

 

No, very much the opposite. At least when it comes to the international markets. It's Harry Potter that is the recent thing.

 

Star Wars formed its fanbase in the 70s and 80s. It blew everyone away at that time and became ingrained in the culture of the countries where movies were big at that time. You can still see that it is big in the markets it first succeeded in, renewing its fanbase in the process. The problem is, there are plenty of markets which weren't that big at that time, which either developed by now or are still relatively minor. Star Wars couldn't really make much of an impact there back when it came out. By the time the markets had become big enough, the old Star Wars movies weren't exactly state of the art anymore, regardless of how far ahead they were in their time. You basically have lots of markets in Asia or South America where Star Wars hovers between meh / solid / very good, depending on the market in question, simply because Star Wars couldn't make an impact at the time where its impact would have been the biggest. If you look a market like China, the original movies obviously played no role, and the prequels also came out at a time where China's market was still very minor.

 

This causes a split in the international markets. On the one hand you have the "original" markets - some of which are simply gigantic, some being merely very good - which have been living with Star Wars since the beginning, on the other hand you have the markets where Star Wars wasn't a thing back in the days. These are the places that deliver fairly average numbers for a blockbuster franchise.

 

Harry Potter is very much the opposite. For one, it's a book-series turned into a movie-series. It's quite easy for books to spread all over the world, movies have a much harder time getting everywhere. But more importantly, Harry Potter is a fairly recent thing. It's not something that wowed everyone 30-40 years ago, it is something that came around in the late 90s and stuck around until a few years ago (counting the main series). All the rising markets basically grew up with it, as did those who were already big in the first place. It's not something that was already old when certain markets started to explode.

 

In other words: Star Wars had its origin and its peak - if you want to call it as such - in the late 70s and early 80s. It can continue to build on what it caused back then, but its peak didn't match with the development of certain markets, which is why it isn't big there. Harry Potter had its peak in the 2000s, very much matching the development of rising markets.

Your points are really very intresting. Still, TFA did huge job OS which made me believe that Rogue One would do great as well. I am kind of wondering how good the word of mouth was for TFA outside USA. In countries that as you said were only recently introduced in the SW franchise. I know for example that in China and Russia TFA had actually a bad WoM which affected Rogue One's chances. And it is perfectly understandable. Some countries were not at all familiar with SW so TFA felt akward to them.. 

[terrestrial]

2 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Fair enough points. I still have some objections but OK.

I never talked about the fanbase. I was talking about the relevance to the general public. Harry Potter was everywhere in late 00's. For the last 5 years the buzz was much less.

'Hunger' for the next one

 

As longer the time in between, as much more can a franchise / story... get forgotten or the hunger grows. Depends on a lot.

 

SW 7 - main story, stilled a lot of the hunger, now a soon following spin-of has less 'hunger' to still, people look more closely for is this a story (an extra story) I am interested in maybe. Plus dont underestimate the social media trouble beforehand, it takes time for that to reach some regions, but it usually takes a lot more time to clear it up. Click-bait outlets AND respected outlets do not tend to clarify their earlier ... wrong assumptions presented as 'insight'.

 

Again also it is IMHO a step away, see war film. And confuses some at least.... not all people like the ... rather unusual time-line-release year thing.

 

Confusion of some: like people still after having seen the film not understanding it being SW 3.9, but thinking it is a 7.5 time-line-wise. Or in another country people believing it is an alternative (!?!?) time-line with Vader still alive (again, got understood as after part 6, as at least a 6.5 story, not as 3.9) 

I think Disney really needs to check their OS team's work

 

In China I think the 'their stars being 'only' worthy to get cast in an ... fill in the wrongly translated title (that botched the Disney China team), implying something less... at least some seem double/twice ... what is a weaker word for upset? Not angry, but somehow irritated? Plus as I say for all film series (see e.g. then after X-Men 3), i think in China the impact of a film the GA being not happy with some things is stronger hurting the next one as it is even in the US. And the first part of SW R1 is not 'perfect' again in the POV of at least a considerable part of the people and reviewers.

 

In addition, see HP print...:

are you aware about how many books, audio books for HP are sold still, how many are standing in the shelves getting re-read still, HP here e.g. being used in school as reading material in the subjects? Only because the social media buzz isn't that high...

FB was a ~ spin off too, but the hunger was way more fresh/grown, so it had both, hunger to still, to fight the drop of a spin-of and that got also at least a bit more difficult, as it too stepped away from the main story per time-line and country/period piece.

 

Star Wars has a lot of books too, but a lot of fans a rather miffed about the lost canon, not all have read the same books, it is far more spread out story-wise. But as far as I know way less of those got translated into another languages, IMHO also because they are so many, it never got the same strong sale numbers for a certain story group, so there is less in common. People speak about animated... but that too not everywhere got released (other TV station systems,... differences) = OS I think people got far less material translated than US people seem to be aware of (same counts btw for a lot of Marvel and DC comics, excluding the real big names, a lot of series and as such characters never got introduces in a lot of countries at all, and comics per a certain series too often got only sales in the under a 100,000 piece area even in dom)

 

As said already, only because something looks similar at first glance, does not make it that similar in reality. Generally speaking.

 

What I also think:

FB had to manage to start interest the people beside it being a period piece. That is a detail at least some are not as much into as others. But at the other side, it might have helped its legs in some regions during the Christmas time (where the traditions are as such), as some of its designs, the period feeling might resonate a bit with Christmas. = only speaking about maybe 2 weeks in December = final results only a part.

 

SW R1 in my POV = not a Christmas film. Less of a family film as both, SW 7 and FB.

In my impression that counts in different countries to differing degrees.

Release date mistakes, see local competition, other US or lets say Japanese/French/Polish/... films getting release dates in other countries too, not comparable to e.g. US market.

Some political details that might play into in a couple or three countries (still speaking about small percentages, but in the sum of all of them... has to be analysed after its run is finished)

In some countries at least something went wrong in translations or advertising campaign, or less GA would be confused.

I never had the feeling I 'have to do' research early (I usually analyse earliest 2 years after the release in the last country) for why FB made where how much..., as less people spoke so... strangely either too high results expecting or too downspeaking, partly less than polite (I do not mean you, reading through the threads in general, all over BOT), so I do not know if FB had similar or other problems in some countries.

 

What I think is not o.K. or simply wrong or...:

some people, who seem to be for some reasons against whatever SW related or this film in especial misusing numbers to claim reasons unproven, or reasons only counting for one translation version or... in general terms 

Way too early. no real data about real GA reactions. No one really can know yet.

Not speaking about circle of friends, if someone is against something, usually the friends are too or using similar click-bait outlets or...

But that can also be said for a lot of other films and franchises, people getting impolite, conclude based on bias (see OS is too this and that not friendly, or speak down on fans or...) or going 'too...' in other ways.

 

Wait and see, as always, there is a reason why I start to collect data ... to analyse around 2 years afterwards, the emerging picture is rarely what in the internet... can be read at the time of release.

 

edit: plus was George Parr said, so many details play into it.

Edited January 7, 2017 by terrestrial

[terrestrial]

On 10/12/2016 at 7:52 PM, Jason said:

Region	TFA	TFA-A	TFA-OW	TFA-OWA
All OS Territories	$1,132	$1,094	$281	$271
Asia	$297.0	$295	$85.7	$83
Europe	$619.4	$585	$153.3	$145
Latin America	$93.9	$92	$30.5	$29
Oceania	$77.2	$80	$23.6	$25
Middle East	$16.1	$15	$5.0	$5
Africa	$3.5	$4	$1.1	$1
Untracked	$25	$24	$34	$33
Country	TFA	TFA-A	TFA-OW	TFA-OWA
Asia	$297.0	$295	$85.7	$83
China	$124.159	$116.6	$52.348	$49.2
Hong Kong	$11.082	$11.076	$3.536	$3.534
India	$4.517	$4.428	n/a	n/a
Japan	$97.863	$103.673	$10.158	$10.762
Malaysia	$6.629	$6.415	$2.870	$2.778
Philippines	$8.176	$7.764	$3.973	$3.772
Singapore	$7.154	$7.088	$2.580	$2.556
South Korea	$24.142	$24.388	$6.707	$6.775
Taiwan	$6.465	$6.666	$1.879	$1.937
Thailand	$5.946	$6.018	$1.629	$1.649
Vietnam	$0.896	$0.878	n/a	n/a
Europe	$619.4	$585	$153.3	$145
Austria	$9.379	$9.172	$1.973	$1.929
Belgium	$11.034	$10.790	$2.962	$2.897
Bulgaria	$2.347	$2.295	$0.641	$0.626
Croatia	$1.246	$1.236	n/a	n/a
Czech Republic	$3.880	$3.792	$1.502	$1.467
Denmark	$11.987	$11.756	n/a	n/a
Finland	$7.879	$7.705	$1.697	$1.659
France	$88.527	$86.574	$21.378	$20.907
Germany	$111.351	$108.894	$27.227	$26.626
Greece	$3.406	$3.331	$1.109	$1.085
Hungary	$6.516	$6.353	$1.508	$1.471
Iceland	$0.906	$1.063	$0.189	$0.222
Italy	$28.214	$27.592	$7.483	$7.318
Latvia	$0.425	$0.416	n/a	n/a
Lithuania	$0.564	$0.551	n/a	n/a
Netherlands	$15.660	$15.314	$2.769	$2.708
Norway	$8.875	$9.205	n/a	n/a
Poland	$16.685	$15.671	n/a	n/a
Portugal	$3.902	$3.816	$1.071	$1.047
Romania	$3.406	$3.337	$0.960	$0.941
Russia - CIS	$25.952	$28.936	$12.400	$13.826
Serbia & Montenegro	$0.711	$0.685	n/a	n/a
Slovakia	$1.137	$1.112	$0.514	$0.502
Slovenia	$0.579	$0.566	$0.151	$0.148
Spain	$36.297	$35.496	$8.689	$8.497
Sweden	$21.347	$20.876	$3.945	$3.858
Switzerland (French)	$4.181	$4.088	$1.029	$1.006
Switzerland (German)	$7.979	$7.803	$2.309	$2.258
Ukraine	$2.509	$2.295	$1.130	$1.033
United Kingdom	$182.475	$153.972	$50.687	$42.770
Latin America	$93.9	$92	$30.5	$29
Argentina	$8.685	$7.272	$2.558	$2.142
Bolivia	$1.869	$1.846	$0.513	$0.507
Brazil	$27.812	$32.426	$8.162	$9.516
Chile	$8.463	$9.067	$2.339	$2.505
Colombia	$4.766	$5.296	$1.574	$1.749
Ecuador	$3.212	$3.212	$0.993	$0.993
Mexico	$27.191	$22.749	$8.118	$6.791
Peru	$6.128	$6.083	$2.280	$2.263
Uruguay	$0.469	$0.485	$0.063	$0.065
Venezuela	$5.354	$3.383	$3.925	$2.480
Oceania	$77.2	$80	$23.6	$25
Australia	$67.327	$69.798	$20.597	$21.353
New Zealand	$9.860	$10.472	$3.035	$3.223
Middle East	$16.1	$15	$5.0	$5
Egypt	$0.154	$0.066	$0.036	$0.016
Israel	$3.385	$3.460	$1.069	$1.093
Lebanon	$0.606	$0.608	$0.127	$0.127
Oman	$0.050	$0.050	$0.012	$0.012
Turkey	$5.821	$4.903	$1.824	$1.536
United Arab Emirates	$6.053	$6.053	$1.953	$1.953
Africa	$3.5	$4	$1.1	$1
Kenya	$0.286	$0.287	n/a	n/a
South Africa	$3.207	$3.531	$1.149	$1.265

 

I quote @Jason s chart from page 3, it is about changes of exchange rates, 1st column what is was worth then, the 2nd what it was worth early in December, 3rd then, 4th early December...

But you can see, SW 7 BO was not spread in a balanced way in OS already.

But add that in some of the key markets the release date was exceptional bad for SW R1, the exchange rate dropped a lot, see UK.... and so on, I am GUESSING other more modern franchises have another kind of spread out over the world

[Planodisney]

Those that say Star Wars is only popular in domestic, UK, Australia and Japan must have missed the 88 million in France and 111 million in Germany that TFA grossed.  It did VERY well in other markets as well.  

R1 is a spin off like Ant Man or Dr. Strange and numbers should be expected to be similar to Marvel spin offs or 2nd tier releases.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Planodisney

[MrPink]

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

 

No, very much the opposite. At least when it comes to the international markets. It's Harry Potter that is the recent thing.

 

Star Wars formed its fanbase in the 70s and 80s. It blew everyone away at that time and became ingrained in the culture of the countries where movies were big at that time. You can still see that it is big in the markets it first succeeded in, renewing its fanbase in the process. The problem is, there are plenty of markets which weren't that big at that time, which either developed by now or are still relatively minor. Star Wars couldn't really make much of an impact there back when it came out. By the time the markets had become big enough, the old Star Wars movies weren't exactly state of the art anymore, regardless of how far ahead they were in their time. You basically have lots of markets in Asia or South America where Star Wars hovers between meh / solid / very good, depending on the market in question, simply because Star Wars couldn't make an impact at the time where its impact would have been the biggest. If you look a market like China, the original movies obviously played no role, and the prequels also came out at a time where China's market was still very minor.

 

This causes a split in the international markets. On the one hand you have the "original" markets - some of which are simply gigantic, some being merely very good - which have been living with Star Wars since the beginning, on the other hand you have the markets where Star Wars wasn't a thing back in the days. These are the places that deliver fairly average numbers for a blockbuster franchise.

 

Harry Potter is very much the opposite. For one, it's a book-series turned into a movie-series. It's quite easy for books to spread all over the world, movies have a much harder time getting everywhere. But more importantly, Harry Potter is a fairly recent thing. It's not something that wowed everyone 30-40 years ago, it is something that came around in the late 90s and stuck around until a few years ago (counting the main series). All the rising markets basically grew up with it, as did those who were already big in the first place. It's not something that was already old when certain markets started to explode.

 

In other words: Star Wars had its origin and its peak - if you want to call it as such - in the late 70s and early 80s. It can continue to build on what it caused back then, but its peak didn't match with the development of certain markets, which is why it isn't big there. Harry Potter had its peak in the 2000s, very much matching the development of rising markets.

 

I think this is a really wonderful analysis that articulates a lot of points I've had internalized in my head...but couldn't express nearly as well. R1's overseas gross is a bit disappointing, absolutely, but since it has over performed in the US, it's evening out to about what we've all expected. FB has performed pretty much as well as anybody could have expected, near 800m is very impressive.

[terrestrial]

Just got an additional thought:

Harry Potter design... is, what I guess we all can agree is more time-less than a Sci-Fi design created early '70 to mid '70. For people new to the franchises the first clicking to it reaction today can differ.

= has nothing to do with quality, different whatever.

People knowing SW since early or growing up with it do not expect to see sleek, modern, for today futuristic looking designs in a Sci-Fi film.

But new to SW audience will do, see they see the other films develop more modern looks every year. They expect that from a Sci-Fi film.

 

A bit like a fantasy film, no one expects modern looking cars... in e.g. Lord of the Rings, so I guess people will accepts its basic designs ... lets say in 20 years still.

[Giesi]

8 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Just got an additional thought:

Harry Potter design... is, what I guess we all can agree is more time-less than a Sci-Fi design created early '70 to mid '70. For people new to the franchises the first clicking to it reaction today can differ.

= has nothing to do with quality, different whatever.

People knowing SW since early or growing up with it do not expect to see sleek, modern, for today futuristic looking designs in a Sci-Fi film.

But new to SW audience will do, see they see the other films develop more modern looks every year. They expect that from a Sci-Fi film.

 

A bit like a fantasy film, no one expects modern looking cars... in e.g. Lord of the Rings, so I guess people will accepts its basic designs ... lets say in 20 years still.

So you think that all the practical effects and classic feeling of the visuals in TFA kind of weakened its boxoffice potential in developing markets? Am I getting this right?

[terrestrial]

3 hours ago, Giesi said:

So you think that all the practical effects and classic feeling of the visuals in TFA kind of weakened its boxoffice potential in developing markets? Am I getting this right?

I do not think its the practical sets in general, I speak in especial... lets pick the X-Wings and the AT-ATs.

They have a lot of edges in them, a bit like... yes: cars in the '70 had edges, not sleek looking.

Both, the cars and the SW designs do look like it could be from our recent history way more than even our present, but for the Sci-Fi genre I think it is - for a part of its audience - important it to look like being a newer Sci-Fi film, cooler races, fast fights,.... Two different things, I meant the design aspect in my post.

It was often named in connection with SW 7 in China: SW looks too old-fashioned, like an old film. And they are right about it based on the designs, those are based on older times design ideas.

Not sure if it will count for all developing markets. I think it is a point in China at least, as it got cited rather often ~ 1 year back and still get said, maybe to a degree in the developing markets, but also in developed markets for people new to the franchise.

I speak mostly about the SW 7 impact.

But when SW 7 already didn't 'feed' the appetite of some for lets say sleek modern designs, maybe not giving indirectly not the feeling for something new (in Sci-Fi as a genre IMHO more important than e.g. LotR like fantasy) it might hinder a part of the new audience to click with it, or to click with it as deeply/fast as other films can, it can even strengthen e.g. the internet bias about SW 'only' being ... I forgot the term, something around 'sentimental'.

How many people are running through live and e.g. see only the titles of newspapers... do not take the time. many competition for awareness, for a certain part of the audience I think visuals / designs is influencing them stronger than others. But people used to the older designs will love them for being consistent.

That might be an additional problem: as the parts did not get filmed per timeline, they can not adjust to more modern designs yet, at least not for SW R1. There might have been potential in SW 7, but that film was important to get the 2 parts of the fandom together again. Maybe they can do something about that in future films, like after a break or a reason for a developing leap in the story.

 

But your question adds another thought: here we wanted less CGI... based on being a bit tired about those, as too many overdid it in their films or had bad versions of it (see also Hobbit). Too many films seemingly based more on those than we want. But a developing culture might expect to see those, as a sign of the growing technology, as in going better and better with those. Loving the visual tech, but not loving Sci-Fi for some reasons. Do they think its a kind of being... unprofessional to not show what a studio is able to? How important is 'show'... for whom and why?

Might be worth a kind of inquiry. 

[terrestrial]

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 13 minutes ago

ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY debuted with est. ¥212M ($30.6M) this weekend. #RogueOne

[Finnick]

 

[Fullbuster]

$1B is close

 

PS : I didn't watch the movie yet ^^"