Weekend Estimates (Page 25): Zootopia 73.7M | London Has Fallen 21.71M | Deadpool 16.4M | WTF 7.6M

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Again, that time stamp is before 8am Pacific time.

It says it was updated (at the bottom of the article) at 12:30pm, which I assume is PST

Edited March 4, 2016 by Jayhawk

[Cmasterclay]

What is with these absurdly high predictions for Zootopia? Doing around the Lorax numbers would be spectacular for this movie. People here are begging it to open higher than any original animated movie other than Inside Out, and that was Pixar. What basis is there for it doing 20 to 25 million more than something like BH6 or Wreck it Ralph? 65 million would be pretty solid, right around a reasonable expection. hell, anything over 60 is fine. Lorax/Lego numbers should be the goal.

Edited March 4, 2016 by Cmasterclay

[Damianport1]

its shocking

Edited March 4, 2016 by Damianport1

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

What is with these absurdly high predictions for Zootopia? Doing around the Lorax numbers would be spectacular for this movie. People here are begging it to open higher than any original animated movie other than Inside Out, and that was Pixar. What basis is there for it doing 30, 40 million more than something like BH6 or Wreck it Ralph? 65 million would be pretty solid, right around a reasonable expection. hell, anything over 60 is fine. Lorax/Lego numbers should be the goal.

Because we wanted it to dammit. It's a fine number regardless, WOM is almost guaranteed to be strong, and projections could still easily go up. Evening shows on the East Coast haven't even started yet, and considering it's a family movie, that's a big deal.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Damianport1 said:

its shocking

Elaborate as to why you think that.

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What is with these absurdly high predictions for Zootopia? Doing around the Lorax numbers would be spectacular for this movie. People here are begging it to open higher than any original animated movie other than Inside Out, and that was Pixar. What basis is there for it doing 20 to 25 million more than something like BH6 or Wreck it Ralph? 65 million would be pretty solid, right around a reasonable expection. hell, anything over 60 is fine. Lorax/Lego numbers should be the goal.

Excellent reviews and strong marketing. 

[cookie]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Excellent reviews and strong marketing. 

 

The reviews aren't going to affect the box office that instantly. It's more likely it'll affect Saturday/Sunday increases.

[Damianport1]

Well its impossible to predict box office this year.

[picores]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What is with these absurdly high predictions for Zootopia? Doing around the Lorax numbers would be spectacular for this movie. People here are begging it to open higher than any original animated movie other than Inside Out, and that was Pixar. What basis is there for it doing 20 to 25 million more than something like BH6 or Wreck it Ralph? 65 million would be pretty solid, right around a reasonable expection. hell, anything over 60 is fine. Lorax/Lego numbers should be the goal.

 

Cannot agree more.

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Because we wanted it to dammit. It's a fine number regardless, WOM is almost guaranteed to be strong, and projections could still easily go up. Evening shows on the East Coast haven't even started yet, and considering it's a family movie, that's a big deal.

Fair enough. I mean, I think it looks pretty good for a kid's movie, and reviews are excellent, but I just don't see enough evidence for it to be either the highest or second highest (in a range of 80 to 100) non-sequel animated opening of all time. Just goes against precedent and most backing. But of course, outliers are possible. That said, I really think something like 70/250 would be spectacular for a movie like Zootopia.

[a2k]

Our expectations were high but the biggest WDAS films are Frozen (400m), BH6 (222.5m), Tangled (200.8m).

So this most likely will end as the 2nd biggest WDAS film http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=disneyanimation.htm

That is a great achievement.

 

KFP3's gonna do 3.60-3.65x. Zootopia has been amazingly received (it seems) and I think it can do 3.75x.

60-65m ow and 3.75x gives 225-243.75m.

Edited March 4, 2016 by a2knet

[grey ghost]

If Zootopia performs like Lego the Movie or Despicable Me it could hit 250 m.

 

That's not bad for a new animated film franchise.

 

It would need better legs than Monster Inc to hit 300 m which would mean it made the top 10 computer animated films DOM.

[grey ghost]

15 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What is with these absurdly high predictions for Zootopia? Doing around the Lorax numbers would be spectacular for this movie. People here are begging it to open higher than any original animated movie other than Inside Out, and that was Pixar. What basis is there for it doing 20 to 25 million more than something like BH6 or Wreck it Ralph? 65 million would be pretty solid, right around a reasonable expection. hell, anything over 60 is fine. Lorax/Lego numbers should be the goal.

 

Deadpool done spoiled everybody.

 

Now if a movie doesn't double tracking estimates, it's a disappointment.

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

If Zootopia performs like Lego the Movie or Despicable Me it could hit 250 m.

 

That's not bad for a new animated film franchise.

 

It would need better legs than Monster Inc to hit 300 m which would mean it made the top 10 computer animated films DOM.

 

If GA loves Zootopia it could become a huge franchise like DM.

WDAS has not made a sequel yet. Zootopia looks more sequel friendly compared to their other films because they built a unique universe.

Edited March 4, 2016 by a2knet

[Ethan Hunt]

Sequel talk already? Shit

[AniNate]

I'd be interested in hearing how parents react to it. I saw it in an empty theater so I can't be sure but the dialogue did strike me as having more of an edge to it than usual for Disney. Not quite on the level of The Simpsons but there's a lot of sarcastic humor

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Deadpool done spoiled everybody.

 

Now if a movie doesn't double tracking estimates, it's a disappointment.

I don't think it's Deadpool spoiling everybody. If it were one of several films breaking out then yes, but aside from it, everything this year so far has either done what was expected of them, average at best, or just straight up flopped. In Zootopia's case you could say it was the Frozen effect because that movie's performance basically raised expectations for all things Disney Animation going forward.

[MCKillswitch123]

18 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What is with these absurdly high predictions for Zootopia? Doing around the Lorax numbers would be spectacular for this movie. People here are begging it to open higher than any original animated movie other than Inside Out, and that was Pixar. What basis is there for it doing 20 to 25 million more than something like BH6 or Wreck it Ralph? 65 million would be pretty solid, right around a reasonable expection. hell, anything over 60 is fine. Lorax/Lego numbers should be the goal.

 

Well, cause Deadpool. (Partly, in all seriousness)

 

But really, I think it's because we're spoiled to live in an age where we can look at the existance of an entirely original movie, not based off of anything, be it existing franchises, books, toys, theme parks or whatever, that had the pleasure of opening at over 90M (and it did that against the 100M+ 2nd weekend of a certain juggernaut called Jurassic World). That would be Inside Out. And before you say PIXAR DAMMIT, let me remind you that, other than Toy Story 3, no other Pixar movie ever performed in its OW like THAT (unadjusted, of course). The congregation of marketing + strong WOM + brand recognition probably led to those crazy numbers. And, while it's reviews are probably technically worse than IO's, the expansion of the WOM (as in, the amount of people telling this is a great movie) is probably just as powerful for Zootopia, if not more; and it's got also very strong marketing (seriously, if it's not BVS stuff, it's Zootopia - it's all over the place), superior trailers than the ones for IO, and the whole of the weekend all to itself (no Jurassic World type beast to compete with). It's fair to say that I think I would be lying if I didn't say that it was always gonna be impossible for it to do those numbers.

 

And yeah, Deadpool too. Cause Deadpool did what Deadpool did. And I kinda wanted to feel that excitement again w/Zootopia.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

 

I'd be interested in hearing how parents react to it. I saw it in an empty theater so I can't be sure but the dialogue did strike me as having more of an edge to it than usual for Disney. Not quite on the level of The Simpsons but there's a lot of sarcastic humor

 

I think Disney has become more relaxed with slightly edgy humour and dialogue in recent years but I imagine while it works for something like Zootopia, it would be out of place in something like Moana. 

 

I think if Zootopia does overperform, Disney will consider a sequel but it's most likely it'll get a TV series on Disney XD and maybe a short film. 

 

 

[Fancyarcher]

12 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

If GA loves Zootopia it could become a huge franchise like DM.

WDAS has not made a sequel yet. Zootopia looks more sequel friendly compared to their other films because they built a unique universe.

 

Rescuers Down Under and they're making a Frozen sequel of course.