charlie Jatinder Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Captain Marvel T-1 Day Previews: ¥6.3mn ($0.94mn) +37% Friday: ¥42.3mn ($6.31mn) +43%Saturday: ¥19.8mn ($2.96mn) +50% Sunday: ¥7.5mn ($1.12mn) +47% Total: ¥75.9mn ($11.33mn) +45% Comps https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk On expected ground, added around ¥13mn on Wednesday, that's better than ¥12.5mn of Civil War. Expected final pre sales for opening day ¥72mn Approx. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Maoyan prediction Captain Marvel Previews: ¥12mn Friday: ¥210mn Saturday: ¥260mn 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Please post USD equivalents! So is it gonna open above CW? 🙏 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Maoyan prediction Captain Marvel Previews: ¥12mn Friday: ¥210mn Saturday: ¥260mn ~200 on Sun would give it 680 ow ($101). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Just now, Valonqar said: Please post USD equivalents! So is it gonna open above CW? 🙏 Yes. Maoyan predicts $31.5mn, I expect $33.5mn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, a2k said: ~200 on Sun would give it 680 ow ($101). 3 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Please post USD equivalents! So is it gonna open above CW? 🙏 For the moment the exchange rate is ... see above a2k's post $1 = ¥6.8 I think the number seekers and crunchers do already a lot, we 'normalos' could add additional posts with the amount in $, or? (they do add a lot per charts... in $ too, I mean the in-between posts) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasNicole Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 @Gavin Feng do you think this "attack" on Mayoan could hurt the movie score that much? GA seems to be really active in rating, so i've been thinking maybe the negative commentaries and ratings will be swallowed once GA start to gave real votes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 24 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Maoyan prediction Captain Marvel Previews: ¥12mn Friday: ¥210mn Saturday: ¥260mn Maoyan predictions aren't so reliable though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Thanks @Charlie Jatinder @terrestrial I need big China cause of my CM Over TLJ WW and CM over Episode IX WW Clubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 11 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Thanks @Charlie Jatinder @terrestrial I need big China cause of my CM Over TLJ WW and CM over Episode IX WW Clubs. What?! There are clubs like those? 😆😆. I doubt it will happen though. But as always, I'm still being conservative in my predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, UserHN said: What?! There are clubs like those? 😆😆. I doubt it will happen though. But as always, I'm still being conservative in my predictions. I'm very confident though. CM can exceed TLJ OS and come close dom. I expect IX to drop from TLJ cause OS will go down and I don't expect big enough increase dom to close the gap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Captain Marvel (1 day out) Midnight - 6.56m OD - 43.1m (43.28%) (124771 shows) Sat - 20.36m Sun - 7.50m OD - Good increase today. However compared to other SH movies today's increase is the second lowest with only Venom, Infinity War and Black Panther having a smaller increase. Most others increased 50-60% on the penultimate day. BUT it is important to see the context here. Captain Marvel's number is so strong and its previous increases so good that it can afford to have a somewhat smaller than normal increase. Kind of like Infinity War. To give an idea of how strong Captain Marvel's numbers are it has already eclipsed the final PS total of movies like GotG2 (28.45), Spiderman Homecoming (36), Thor Ragnarok (24.2), Justice League (26), Aquaman (35.04), Bumblebee and Alita (33.5). It is also very lose to the final number of Ant Man 2 (46.6) and Black Panther (45.5). Saturday - Captain Marvel's Saturday number is also very strong and higher than any movie I have tracked except Infinity War. It's Saturday number infact is higher than the OD PS (1 day out) of movies like GotG2, SMH, Thor, Justice League, Alita, Bumblebee and Aquaman Show count - CM's show count is also very high and behind only Infinity War, Venom and Jurassic World 2 (only by 2k for the latter two). It's likely heading to a final show count in the 150k region like that of Aquaman, Jurassic World 2 and Venom but will fall short of the 177k of Infinity War. Projection - There has been some doom and gloom regarding the review bombing on sites like Douban so it is important to remember how strong Captain Marvel's numbers are. Below I will try and give a very pessimistic prediction to show that even with the worst case scenario Captain Marvel will still do good numbers. Final Day PS - Most other SH movies increased in the range of 70% (Black Panther) to 100% (Thor Ragnarok). Only Infinity War had a lower increase on the final day of about 40%. CM is not gonna have a small increase like that of IW. It increased 43% today compared to 20% of IW. So let's go with the lowest number it might increase and say it will increase slightly lower than BP at 65% which will give it a final PS of 71m OW - The lowest PS to OW multi amongst SH movie is that of Infinity War at 6.98x. Others like BP had a multi of 9.27, Ant Man 2 at 9.97x and recent movies like Venom at 12.76x and Aquaman at 18.06x. Let's go with the lowest one of Infinity War and give CM an Ow multi of 7. That will give it an OW of 74.5m Legs - The lowest legs amongst SH movies was Black Panther at 1.61x. Let's give CM an even lower multi at 1.5x. That gives a total gross of 111m Even with such highly pessimistic prediction it still will gross as much as average SH movies make in China. Which in itself would not be a bad gross for a female led solo origin movie. It has no significant competition in its second week so should hold on to a decent amount of screens. Green Book is going strong but is not big enough to cause significant damage to CM. Now CM could prove to be an even bigger outlier and perform worse in every single category above than the worst ones but I think that is highly unlikely. Even if it performs exactly like Black Panther on OW and legs wise it still would gross 163m 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said: Captain Marvel (1 day out) Midnight - 6.56m OD - 43.1m (43.28%) (124771 shows) Sat - 20.36m Sun - 7.50m OD - Good increase today. However compared to other SH movies today's increase is the second lowest with only Venom, Infinity War and Black Panther having a smaller increase. Most others increased 50-60% on the penultimate day. BUT it is important to see the context here. Captain Marvel's number is so strong and its previous increases so good that it can afford to have a somewhat smaller than normal increase. Kind of like Infinity War. To give an idea of how strong Captain Marvel's numbers are it has already eclipsed the final PS total of movies like GotG2 (28.45), Spiderman Homecoming (36), Thor Ragnarok (24.2), Justice League (26), Aquaman (35.04), Bumblebee and Alita (33.5). It is also very lose to the final number of Ant Man 2 (46.6) and Black Panther (45.5). Saturday - Captain Marvel's Saturday number is also very strong and higher than any movie I have tracked except Infinity War. It's Saturday number infact is higher than the OD PS (1 day out) of movies like GotG2, SMH, Thor, Justice League, Alita, Bumblebee and Aquaman Show count - CM's show count is also very high and behind only Infinity War, Venom and Jurassic World 2 (only by 2k for the latter two). It's likely heading to a final show count in the 150k region like that of Aquaman, Jurassic World 2 and Venom but will fall short of the 177k of Infinity War. Projection - There has been some doom and gloom regarding the review bombing on sites like Douban so it is important to remember how strong Captain Marvel's numbers are. Below I will try and give a very pessimistic prediction to show that even with the worst case scenario Captain Marvel will still do good numbers. Final Day PS - Most other SH movies increased in the range of 70% (Black Panther) to 100% (Thor Ragnarok). Only Infinity War had a lower increase on the final day of about 40%. CM is not gonna have a small increase like that of IW. It increased 43% today compared to 20% of IW. So let's go with the lowest number it might increase and say it will increase slightly lower than BP at 65% which will give it a final PS of 71m OW - The lowest PS to OW multi amongst SH movie is that of Infinity War at 6.98x. Others like BP had a multi of 9.27, Ant Man 2 at 9.97x and recent movies like Venom at 12.76x and Aquaman at 18.06x. Let's go with the lowest one of Infinity War and give CM an Ow multi of 7. That will give it an OW of 74.5m Legs - The lowest legs amongst SH movies was Black Panther at 1.61x. Let's give CM an even lower multi at 1.5x. That gives a total gross of 111m Even with such highly pessimistic prediction it still will gross as much as average SH movies make in China. Which in itself would not be a bad gross for a female led solo origin movie. It has no significant competition in its second week so should hold on to a decent amount of screens. Green Book is going strong but is not big enough to cause significant damage to CM. Now CM could prove to be an even bigger outlier and perform worse in every single category above than the worst ones but I think that is highly unlikely. Even if it performs exactly like Black Panther on OW and legs wise it still would gross 163m so if it hits 100 ow then with bad wom will hit around 150-160 ,with average 170-180 and good 200+ ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeSoh Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, john2000 said: so if it hits 100 ow then with bad wom will hit around 150-160 ,with average 170-180 and good 200+ ? Yes. If it hits 100m OW then those numbers are possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said: Yes. If it hits 100m OW then those numbers are possible wow if captain marvel can do that then endgame is gonna shake the world also why so high though is it bc its the first big blockbuster or is it because superhero movie became bigger ? Edited March 6, 2019 by john2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, john2000 said: wow if captain marvel can do that then endgame is gonna shake the world also why so high though is it bc its the first big blockbuster or is it because superhero movie became bigger ? AM2, Venom and Aquaman have all broken the solo superhero record in the last months. With these crazy presales, Captain Marvel could continue the streak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Just now, MrGlass2 said: AM2, Venom and Aquaman have all broken the solo superhero record in the last months. With these crazy presales, Captain Marvel could continue the streak. omg i cannt imagine what endgame will do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said: AM2, Venom and Aquaman have all broken the solo superhero record in the last months. With these crazy presales, Captain Marvel could continue the streak. I was dreaming of this a few days ago, but doesn’t sound like the reception will be there for such a high multi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, john2000 said: omg i cannt imagine what endgame will do Solo superhero movies had strangely been left behind in China to some degree. The Chinese market grew ever bigger but solo films seemed stuck around $100M. Venom and Aquaman have changed that. Infinity War, of course, is in a different category entirely and it will be almost impossible for Endgame to increase as much as solo movies have done in the last months. Not decreasing from IW would already be great. Edited March 6, 2019 by MrGlass2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, john2000 said: wow if captain marvel can do that then endgame is gonna shake the world also why so high though is it bc its the first big blockbuster or is it because superhero movie became bigger ? endgame was going to shake the world regardless but with CM lead-in the sky will fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...