Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, TMP said:

Jeez, lets hope the vaccine is sorted earlier than that.

Probably not. I doubt they are going to even get to the human testing stage before the summer starts.

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Two more: Soul, if it performs like Inside Out ($857m), and No Time To Die, as I believe it should match SPECTRE ($880m)

 

To be clear, I'm expecting Black Widow to perform better than (but not significantly so) The Winter Soldier ($714m), which is not only the MCU film that appears to best resemble the tone of Black Widow, but also Widow's most prominent MCU appearance to this point. I'm guessing Black Widow earns somewhere around $850m global right now.

 

I don't believe Scarlett is as big a star overseas as some of the other Marvel folk. Scar Jo's top international earner (removing MCU and voice roles) is Lucy, which earned $330m overseas. Next up is Ghost in the Shell, $127m overseas.

Winter Soldier doesn't make sense as a comp since it was released in 2014. Marvel fanbase was much smaller at the time and OS markets were smaller as well. I mean even AMATW was not that far below Winter Soldier.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

140m OW (18.5m Thursday Previews)

140 will need min 20mn Previews. 

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

140 will need min 20mn Previews. 

More frontloaded than Captain Marvel? 

[fabiopazzo2]

I see 125/145M for Black Widow right now but i really hope will open over CM

[misafeco]

9 hours ago, Thomas Beck said:

Has anything been revealed giving a reason to care about this movie yet?

 

Personally not that interested in a prequel about a now dead character, would seem better for the MCU to look forward and not backwards.

The action takes place in the beautiful city of Budapest, does it count? 

[TMP]

Predicting OW before trailer 2... hmm....

[Saul Goodman]

14 minutes ago, Menor said:

Winter Soldier doesn't make sense as a comp since it was released in 2014. Marvel fanbase was much smaller at the time and OS markets were smaller as well. I mean even AMATW was not that far below Winter Soldier.

This. 2014 was a completely different time yet GOTG exceeded everyone's expectations that year. After IW and Endgame, the fanbase is way bigger.

[Madhuvan]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Predicting OW before trailer 2... hmm....

Predicting Marvel movies is much easier now. 

Most movies MCU movies from now on will fall in 120m-180m OW range. 

 

Unless it's Ant Man or a big event movie. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

More frontloaded than Captain Marvel? 

Yep. 

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yep. 

Yeah, but why? Wasn't Captain Marvel really frontloaded for a non-Avengers MCU movie?

[OncomingStorm93]

14 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

This. 2014 was a completely different time yet GOTG exceeded everyone's expectations that year. After IW and Endgame, the fanbase is way bigger.

I think you guys are missing I’m expecting this to do about $150m more than Winter Soldier, not match it.

 

Or are we going to pretend that 5 of the 9 films in Phase 3 without Avengers in the title didn’t finish below $900m global? (Not a bad thing before anyone construes this as an insult)

 

$850m would be just fine for a geopolitical action thriller without super powered folk.

Edited February 11, 2020 by OncomingStorm93

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah, but why? Wasn't Captain Marvel really frontloaded for a non-Avengers MCU movie?

Normal. 

 

Also after every Avengers film, standalone films get previews heavier by a degree. I posted data on that at time of Captain Marvel. Basically with time.

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

I think you guys are missing I’m expecting this to do about $150m more than Winter Soldier, not match it.

 

Or are we going to pretend that 5 of the 9 films in Phase 3 without Avengers in the title didn’t finish below $900m global? (Not a bad thing before anyone construes this as an insult)

TWS peaked WW #61, about 930M today. A mid 800s is plausible depending on how it’s affected in China though.   
 

Only 2/9 Phase 3 solos (DS1 and AM&tW) had runs that would be <900 today.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

140-150m OW is  a good goal. Also the first big movie to kick off summer.

[OncomingStorm93]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Normal. 

 

Also after every Avengers film, standalone films get previews heavier by a degree. I posted data on that at time of Captain Marvel. Basically with time.

It’s more complicated.

 

For example, Ant-Man, the first film after Ultron, earned 31% its domestic total on OW. Good legs, not front-loaded.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp, after Infinity War, was 35%. More frontloaded than its predecessor, but that’s an accepted trend with sequels. Did IW result in more of a frontloaded boost there? I’m not sure...

 

Iron Man 3 (42.6%), first film after Avengers, was not significantly more front-loaded than Iron Man 2 (41%). It may just appear frontloaded because it earned significantly more overall.

 

It’s an impossible calculation for Far From Home because of the mid-week release.

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Normal. 

Also after every Avengers film, standalone films get previews heavier by a degree. I posted data on that at time of Captain Marvel. Basically with time.

Found it.

On 3/2/2019 at 12:39 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Marvel Cinematic Universe and its increasing Previews to the Friday.

 

After every Avengers film, there is growth in the previews component in Friday. The new normal now is around 32-33% IMO for solo films and End Game will most likely be around 38-39%. Said that, I am expecting 31% for Captain Marvel on account of Women's day, if Previews are $19-20mn, we shall have a Friday of $61-65mn Approx.

Update Chart:

Film	Previews	Friday	% Share
Iron Man	$3.50	$35.23	9.93%
Incredible Hulk	$1.60	$21.47	7.45%
Iron Man 2	$7.50	$51.24	14.64%
Captain America	$4.00	$25.70	15.56%
Thor	$3.25	$25.48	12.75%
The Avengers	$18.70	$80.81	23.14%
Iron Man 3	$15.60	$68.86	22.66%
Thor 2	$7.10	$31.90	22.26%
Captain America: Winter Soldier	$10.30	$36.93	27.89%
GOTG	$11.20	$37.85	29.59%
Avengers: Age of Ultron	$27.60	$84.42	32.69%
Ant-Man	$6.40	$22.65	28.26%
Captain America: Civil War	$25.00	$75.50	33.11%
Doctor Strange	$9.40	$32.59	28.85%
GOTG 2	$17.00	$56.08	30.31%
Spider-Man: Homecoming	$15.40	$50.78	30.33%
Thor: Ragnarok	$14.50	$46.47	31.20%
Black Panther	$25.20	$75.94	33.18%
Avengers: Infinity War	$39.00	$106.33	36.68%
Ant-Man and The Wasp	$11.50	$33.73	34.10%
Captain Marvel	$20.70	$61.70	33.55%
Avengers: Endgame	$60.00	$157.46	38.10%
Spider-man: Far From Home		$39.25	0.00%
Black Widow	$20.00	$57.14	35.00%

 

I used 20mn for BW just because it was mentioned. I think Widow will do 25 range.

Edited February 11, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

It’s more complicated.

 

For example, Ant-Man, the first film after Ultron, earned 31% its domestic total on OW. Good legs, not front-loaded.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp, after Infinity War, was 35%. More frontloaded than its predecessor, but that’s an accepted trend with sequels. Did IW result in more of a frontloaded boost there? I’m not sure...

 

Iron Man 3 (42.6%), first film after Avengers, was not significantly more front-loaded than Iron Man 2 (41%). It may just appear frontloaded because it earned significantly more overall.

 

It’s an impossible calculation for Far From Home because of the mid-week release.

We were talking about the internal multiplier, not the overall legs.

[OncomingStorm93]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

We were talking about the internal multiplier, not the overall legs.

Gotcha.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Normal. 

 

Also after every Avengers film, standalone films get previews heavier by a degree. I posted data on that at time of Captain Marvel. Basically with time.

For a non-summer opener CM was indeed quite preview loaded. Only Avengers 2-4 and CA: CWwere more frontloaded through the weekend out of the non-summer openers.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Menor