Tuesday #s: Dory - $23.2M, CI - $4.5M, TC2 - $2.3M, NYSM2 - $1.6M, WC - $1M

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

That's stupid. How could it miss $450m when it's already at $178m after 5 days? Wednesday, Thursday, and the weekend will put it at roughly $280m...

 

Barring unusual drops, it's passing $450m.

 

Why are u such a sick all the time? Do you even know how to not be abrasive?

[Mango]

20 minutes ago, The Pandaren said:

Wed: 16.5m

Thu: 16.1m

Fri: 27.4m

Sat: 35.6m

Sun: 24.9m

Wknd: 87.9m (-35%)

 

An under 40% drop looks really likely as long as it holds to the 15-17m range tomorrow and Thursday.  Even with minimal Friday and Saturday increases.

 

I have a feeling Dory is going to be as much of a weekday warrior as Toy Story 3. That film played incredibly over the weekdays pretty much all summer, at the cost of some lower Friday/Saturday increases.

 

I remember after TS3 had its first week it was looking to do $65-70 million if you were going off of other animated films but it's increases were a bit muted.

[stripe]

450M is likely but not locked. It will depend on the staying power through the 4th of July extended weekend.

 

Assuming a 10 days gross around 280M, add around 35M for the week and 50M for the 4 days third weekend. 365M. With Pets opening the next weekend, the drops would be harsher and the road to that milestone would be long and hard.

 

But if the 4th of July weekend is great (60M 4day is doable IMHO), Dory would easily finish over 450M.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

I have a feeling Dory is going to be as much of a weekday warrior as Toy Story 3. That film played incredibly over the weekdays pretty much all summer, at the cost of some lower Friday/Saturday increases.

 

I remember after TS3 had its first week it was looking to do $65-70 million if you were going off of other animated films but it's increases were a bit muted.

 

A more muted weekend

 

Fri: 23.3m

Sat: 32.6m

Sun: 22.8m

Wknd: 79m (-41%) (290m)

 

Which would still be a might impressive drop off of a 135m opening.

[Quigley]

I think that a $500M total is a foregone conclusion at this point. Hoping for $550M+ but $600M+ is not easy to predict atm.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, Giesi said:

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I wouldn't mind Dory, either. 

 

 

Oh we'll have to see about about that, but Dory's is certainly giving rogue one pressure..

[baumer]

500 mill will be very difficult and I personally don't see it getting there. 450 will happen.....475 I think is too high.

[Ethan Hunt]

Dory sold out. Seeing NYSM 2

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, The Pandaren said:

 

A more muted weekend

 

Fri: 23.3m

Sat: 32.6m

Sun: 22.8m

Wknd: 79m (-41%) (290m)

 

Which would still be a might impressive drop off of a 135m opening.

 

If you have Thur at 16.1m that's about 23% ahead of Toy Story III's $13m. 

 

If it had the same FSS % increases ( 37.5%/25.8%/-16.8%) it would be a $73m w/e

 

 

 

 

Edited June 22, 2016 by TalismanRing

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I think 450m is happening, though it's a little early to call it a stone-cold lock. $500m is possible, but probably near the upper limits of potential.

[baumer]

Making a new Dory bet thread now.

[narniadis]

For everyone talking about the "Great Monday hold" as evidence that Tuesday should have been more muted.... Have you forgotten that SUNDAY was deflated making monday appear more amazing than it really was? NOT downplaying but seriously the Saturday to Monday ratio was the same as TS3 showing us that Monday while HUGE (its making numbers bigger than TS3....) was right in the area it should have been, particularly if Game 7 hadn't sacked it as bad as it did.

 

I mean lets be serious here the trend all year along has been a shift to a more Tuesday heavy viewing hence why CA3 increased when it should have decreased in previous years. If I am not mistaken no "kids" film has decreased on a tuesday at all this year first week or otherwise - its a "new" spin on an older trend that we need to take into account. Another factor then is the near always -25%+ drops on Wednesdays that have become the norm not the unusual - even when just comparing films from 2 or 3 years ago its become incredibly obvious how much Tuesdays have changed the scope of the field - just like Thursday previews have made Thursday drops almost a regular occurrence. 

[FlashMaster659]

11 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Dory sold out. Seeing NYSM 2

On a Wednesday?

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

On a Wednesday?

Yep

[K1stpierre]

Sweet Tuesday number! I'll be happy today if it only make 14-15 today, it's normal for it to drop a bit today (though im hoping for 16-17).

[wildphantom]

Despite these great midweek numbers I'll be amazed if it goes over $80 million over the weekend. It's possible of course, but I don't think it will. 

I see Independence Day doing better than many think. Perhaps mid 50's. 

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I'm off for Dory round 2

 

Looks like I'm seeing Free State of Jones on Friday, and then double feature of ID4 and Shallows for Saturday matinee. I then work Saturday night, a split on Sunday, Monday night, split on Wednesday and Thursday night.

 

So I may have to go see Dory for a late showing Tuesday night, Thursday matinee, or wait until next week altogether.

[baumer]

Here it is:

 

The dory under 475 bet thread:

 

Your $10 up against me and Tele's $100.00 each

 

 

[DAJK]

25 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

On a Wednesday?

It's a matinee for a kids movie. No mater what day it is, matinees will have the chance of selling out.

[Hangman]

zz

Edited September 20, 2017 by Hangman