Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k

[kswiston]

14 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Not that I expect an Amazing hold from Strange. Last weekend was likely inflated by $3-4M due to the holiday. That was always going to knock a few percentage points off this weekend's hold. I also think that Fantastic Beasts has a pretty solid demographic overlap with Doctor Strange. However, down 65% isn't much better than Amazing Spider-man fared against TDKR. Fantastic Beasts isn't TDKR.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the weekend estimate bounce back $17.5-18.5M range. Not a very exciting result after last weekend's sub-50 tumble, but not the end of the world with Thanksgiving next weekend. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, James said:

Don't you guys think this will play more like a family movie than any of the Potters? My audience was so diverse and they laughed throughout the movie. Parent and kids both.

I doubt it. The protagonists of those movies were adolescents, the ones of these movies are all adults.

[mahnamahna]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It would need over a 3x multiplier to hit $230m off a 75m w/e.  I can't see that happening.  This isn't Potter but it's still a spin off with built in early demand.  If it was a completely original property it wouldn't have $8.75m previews or come near this opening. 

 

I just think the smaller OW means it won't have a 55-65% 2nd weekend drop like DH1, CF, MJ1, MJ2, the Twilight films, etc. More like 45-50% next weekend. 

 

It'll drop 60-65% over the post-Thanksgiving frame and when Rogue One opens, but I think it'll have stronger legs than all of the Potter films except Sorcerer's Stone and Chamber of Secrets. 

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, James said:

Don't you guys think this will play more like a family movie than any of the Potters? My audience was so diverse and they laughed throughout the movie. Parent and kids both.

Hell no.

[Napoleon]

I don't think WB franchises have peaked this year. Of course things could go that way, but there's room to improve for both the DC and the Fantastic Beasts franchises. It's just a matter of handling them the right way. Let's way and see. These 2 universes have great stories to tell.

[James]

Just now, filmlover said:

I doubt it. The protagonists of those movies were adolescents, the ones of these movies are all adults.

I know, but that doesn't make it any less of a family movie. It is very accessible and I really think the WOM will be great.

[yjs]

wellp, if you ask me, there's a more obvious family choice opening next week ? *cough cough*

[CaptainJackSparrow]

1 minute ago, yjs said:

wellp, if you ask me, there's a more obvious family choice opening next week ? *cough cough*

Yes, Bad Santa 2 will bring in the families!!

[POTUS 2020]

49 minutes ago, yjs said:

isn't $15M a bit too low for DS? think I read it was on track to do low-20s

Don't take deadline seriously on early projections. They were 20-30% low last week. They are getting worse with age.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

Yes, Bad Santa 2 will bring in the families!!

I keep forgetting that comes out next week. A surefire sign of how well it'll do!

[John Marston]

It won't have legs. No reason for non Potter fans to check out this Film

[robertman2]

9 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

Yes, Bad Santa 2 will bring in the families!!

I want Bad Santa 2 to open higher than Moana just for the meltdowns

[water]

we'll see how frontloaded the weekend is but i think legs will be between 2.2-2.6x

[The Futurist]

I am not now very confident that Rogue One won't finish number 1 WW and I am still laughing at the fact that  few people cared for Civil War BO run, you know that little indie movie that won 2016 WW and that "only" fans were interested in.

 

Civil War is a box office phenomenon, make your peace with that fact.

 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2016 by The Futurist

[DAR]

Everytime I see FB I think we're talking about FaceBook

[MCKillswitch123]

Aww, the meltdowns are over now  But hey, if DHD is right (which, well, usually they're not, but still), 30M would make way more sense for FB, and would prove my theory that it plays more like an original film w/franchise appeal than straight up Potter. Though we're still looking at mid to high 70's even if comes in at or slightly under 30M, me thinks.

 

Now, regardless of the collective pants shitting being over now, I still wanna lighten up the mood a little bit. That's why I decided to do........

 

LEGSTLEMANIA PART 3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Finding Dory's legs:

 

Don't Breathe's legs:

 

The Legend Of Tarzan's legs:

(I know you were waiting for this one.....)

 

 

The Secret Life Of Pets' legs:

 

Suicide Squad's legs:

...

...

... it's complicated. I should take into account those AWFUL few first drops, but then the rest of its run was great. That kinda balances out to something like this:

 

 

 

Most of this Summer's legs:

 

The Birth Of A Nation and Warcraft's legs:

[filmlover]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

Aww, the meltdowns are over now  But hey, if DHD is right (which, well, usually they're not, but still), 30M would make way more sense for FB, and would prove my theory that it plays more like an original film w/franchise appeal than straight up Potter. Though we're still looking at mid to high 70's even if comes in at or slightly under 30M, me thinks.

 

Now, regardless of the collective pants shitting being over now, I still wanna lighten up the mood a little bit. That's why I decided to do........

 

LEGSTLEMANIA PART 3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Finding Dory's legs:

 

Don't Breathe's legs:

 

The Legend Of Tarzan's legs:

(I know you were waiting for this one.....)

 

 

The Secret Life Of Pets' legs:

 

Suicide Squad's legs:

...

...

... it's complicated. I should take into account those AWFUL few first drops, but then the rest of its run was great. That kinda balances out to something like this:

 

 

 

Most of this Summer's legs:

 

The Birth Of A Nation and Warcraft's legs:

lol

[kitik]

10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

It won't have legs. No reason for non Potter fans to check out this Film

 

Yeah, I can't imagine too many folks checking this out who haven't seen the Potter films.

Fans only. (Which is, of course, typical HP.)

[Noctis]

I really wanna see official Friday numbers.

[James]

Seriously, there's no way this day becomes better. FB destroyed my wildest expectations and J.K. Rowling liked my tweet about FB. This is fanboy dream life right here.