Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[La Binoche]

Quote

 

Manchester By the Sea had a robust weekend in expansion in its second frame. The Amazon Studios/Roadside Attractions release grossed $1,250,294 in 48 theaters, up from its opening weekend four locations. That gave the feature with Casey Affleck a $26,048 PTA. In its debut last week, the feature grossed $241,230 in four locations, averaging $60,308, the fourth highest per theater average of 2016.

Manchester By the Sea “expanded nicely,” said Amazon’s head of marketing and distribution, Bob Berney. “It is a working class story that is connecting with people. [Audiences] are blown away by Casey Affleck’s performance.” Amazon noted Sunday its 97% Fresh rating on RT and 96 on Metacritic. The company also noted Manchester was the number one feature in 33 of the 48 locations it played over the weekend.

 

 

Deadline. 

[water]

so os ow was 145m and those same territories in second weekend did 132-41.1-15.5=75.4m or a drop of 48%. a drop like that usually means legs of about 2.7 so 145x2.7=390m + 140m from china and japan = 530m os + 210m dom = 740m ww. like i said hard to get to 750m especially if legs aren't as good as they were this week

[narniadis]

I want to see Manchester and all the other small films but considering that I can't even get to the theater once a month anymore it ain't happening. May be the first year in over a decade where I haven't seen a BP nominated film before Oscar night. 

[grim22]

1 minute ago, water said:

so os ow was 145m and those same territories in second weekend did 132-41.1-15.5=75.4m or a drop of 48%. a drop like that usually means legs of about 2.7 so 145x2.7=390m + 140m from china and japan = 530m os + 210m dom = 740m ww. like i said hard to get to 750m especially if legs aren't as good as they were this week

 

So you are saying that after a 66M 5-day Thanksgiving, FB will only make a further 54M over the rest of its run? The Thanksgiving holdovers make 1.2x its 5 day holdover gross over the rest of their run at least. FB has almost 80M in the tank just based on the 66M it did. Even if it completely collapses it will still do another 66M and get to around 222M domestic.

[Napoleon]

I think FB will drop less than 60% next weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

I'm going with a 60% drop for FB next weekend.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Napoleon said:

I think FB will drop less than 60% next weekend.

It will probably drop ~55%.

[Heretic]

60% would be good next week for FB. 

[Lumos]

What are the chances this can hit 850m WW? The numbers from Asia look very nice and clearly FB is receiving great wom in all markets. Just looking at the math and 800m seems like almost a given at this point....

Edited November 27, 2016 by Lumos

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, Lumos said:

What are the chances this can hit 850m WW? The numbers from Asia look very nice and clearly FB is receiving great wom in all markets. Just looking at the math and 800m seems like almost a given at this point....

Don't get too greedy!   800M feels excellent!

[Lumos]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

Don't get too greedy!   800M feels excellent!

I just want this to the number #1 WB film worldwide for 2016....but 875m seems like it could be a bit of stretch. Lol

[FantasticBeasts]

Just now, Lumos said:

I just want this to the number #1 WB film worldwide for 2016....but 875m seems like it could be a bit of stretch. Lol

It feels almost impossible. Anything can happen but the chances are very low..don't get too overoptimistic. Not even 800m is sure ....

[filmlover]

The Eagle Huntress is doing really well so far too. Daisy Ridley's coming for that multiplex and indie credibility! 

[grim22]

10 minutes ago, Lumos said:

What are the chances this can hit 850m WW? The numbers from Asia look very nice and clearly FB is receiving great wom in all markets. Just looking at the math and 800m seems like almost a given at this point....

 

I would say a finish between 750-800 is most likely currently.

[terrestrial]

24 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

They are counting a Lord of The Rings movie that made 30m...

That film does not belong to the 'cinema BO' meaning / use of 'franchise' IMHO (I think they'll have added the mid '70 or so version?)

In way I can understand why they added it, but it was a ~ standalone try to start a film series (I can't remember for now if it was meant as a 2-parter or 3-parter or...) - as an ~ animated film, with other creative, other studio,... with in a way ~ another goal

Franchise lists can be a bit tricky depending on POV (end in lively discussions) I'd go with the franchise lists like at Boxofficemojo.com or The-Numbers.com

 

[That One Girl]

I know this isn't the most apt. comparison, but Sorcerer's Stone dropped 58% in 2001.  I'd say it'll drop around 60% next week.

[The Panda]

10 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I know this isn't the most apt. comparison, but Sorcerer's Stone dropped 58% in 2001.  I'd say it'll drop around 60% next week.

 

Given Beasts is having abnormally good legs for the franchise, I think a 58% drop is a good goal mark.

[James]

21 minutes ago, Lumos said:

What are the chances this can hit 850m WW? The numbers from Asia look very nice and clearly FB is receiving great wom in all markets. Just looking at the math and 800m seems like almost a given at this point....

I was actually thinking about this and it is all about China and Japan at this point. Mostly Japan, because there's more wiggle room there than in China. It has pretty much no competition OS from now till RO.

The Sunday drop in China is extremely good which is sign of over the norm WOM. Let's say it follows DS there and makes about 110m.

In Japan it also had a huge Sunday and there's a good chance the OW actuals will come in even higher than the estimates. The WOM is also very good (high grades on their sites) and that could carry it very high (let's say 70m - Corpse says 55m should happen).

And from the rest of the territories around 430m total should happen (this weekend's -48% drop from the holdovers is just great considering that last weekend was inflated by previews in most countries).

That means 600m from OS. Methinks it is going for at least 230m DOM. Don't wanna say 240m because people will jump at me.

 

That is 830m. Now, as I said, Japan and China are the key. Especially in Japan, good WOM is a bigger deal than OWs and I find Corpse's early projection a bit low. With DH2 legs it should make almost 75m. And around the world FB had way better holds than DH2. 

 

So 850m is by no means dead. It is unlikely though. 

[4815162342]

57 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

They are counting a Lord of The Rings movie that made 30m...

 

Are they counting the animated movie from the late 70s? Because that should not factor in at all when comparing the two franchises. Different filmmakers, different studio, different medium, different take on the setting, etc.

[DAJK]

Moana more than doubled its first matinee shows from yesterday to today.

 

I also had time to total up some numbers. Hacksaw Ridge's final gross at my theatre is our equivalent of $102.8 and Dr Strange is $180.4 with a bunch of other decimals