STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI | 712.4 M overseas ● 1332.5 M worldwide

[FantasticBeasts]

It has been running just at the exact pace with DOM so I feel it will finish at about $650m without China, plus whatever it makes there so +-$700m.

Edited January 3, 2018 by FantasticBeasts

[titanic2187]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

My local theater had only 1 showing of TLJ on Monday, compared to 9 yesterday. And they were packed. So this increase doesnt suprise me based on the german/european market.

 

Edit: TLJ should pull a lot larger numbers OS than DOM for Wednesday and Thurday. In Hesse, Germany for example, all kids have school off till January 15th.

could that 16.4m is the mix of domestic and foreign total??? 

 

increase from NY just too unusual and make little sense, 7.9m+8.5m on tuesday, looked like a more reasonable domestic/overseas split based on the previous daily figure pulled. 

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

could that 16.4m is the mix of domestic and foreign total??? 

 

increase from NY just too unusual and make little sense, 7.9m+8.5m on tuesday, looked like a more reasonable domestic/overseas split based on the previous daily figure pulled. 

 

Based on the numbers alone, thats not impossible. BOM fucks up sometimes But if so, we should see a correction rather fast.

 

Edit: @titanic2187 Seems the number is legit. From Forbes:

 

Overseas is a slightly different story, as it seems to be breaking away from that 50/50 split, having earned $16.6 million on Tuesday for a new $551.4m overseas total and a whopping $1.09 billion global cume.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Brainbug

[George Parr]

11 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

It has been running just at the exact pace with DOM so I feel it will finish at about $630m without China, plus whatever it makes there so +-$700m.

No, it hasn't really, that a misconception due to certain days being completely dead in some parts of the world while the US still had a good to great holiday effect. And there is absolutely no way it will finish with 630m without China. Look at one of the posts near the top of the last page, it gives a hint at what it would need to reach 650m without China. And that is with a way too low number for Japan, which is more likely to add 40 than 20m the rest of the way. It has a better chance of reachign 675m without China than of only making 630m.

 

In fact, if it made the same 16m every day for the rest of the week, the total would already be at 630m.

Edited January 3, 2018 by George Parr

[George Parr]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

could that 16.4m is the mix of domestic and foreign total??? 

 

increase from NY just too unusual and make little sense, 7.9m+8.5m on tuesday, looked like a more reasonable domestic/overseas split based on the previous daily figure pulled. 

Why would an increase from NYD be too unusual?

You shouldn't think of how the domestic market works. Internationally, things are completely different.

 

Take the 25th of December for example. It's one of the bgigest days in the US, while being mostly dead in Europe and Australia. Infact, theaters don't even open that day in some countries. Same with the 31st and 1st, neither are particularly big days in Europe.

 

On top of that, if that number were a mix, it wouldn't be added to the international side, now would it?

After all, the chart lists the domestic side as well, and the number listed there doesn't match the total given by the box office sites yet, while the international total does.

[FantasticBeasts]

4 minutes ago, George Parr said:

No, it hasn't really, that a misconception due to certain days being completely dead in some parts of the world while the US still had a good to great holiday effect. And there is absolutely no way it will finish with 630m without China. Look at one of the posts near the top of the last page, it gives a hint at what it would need to reach 650m without China. And that is with a way too low number for Japan, which is more likely to add 40 than 20m the rest of the way. It has a better chance of reachign 675m without China than of only making 630m.

I changed my post to $650m after some though which I believe is still a realistic bet. I guess it could go higher but eitherway the range is $700-750m.

[Valonqar]

So it's recovering its holds OS, no? 

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

So it's recovering its holds OS, no? 

 

Yes.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Brainbug

[Lordmandeep]

Rogue and TFA had better legs overseas then domestic post Holidays, same should play out here. 

[Brainbug]

The U.K. is currently the top market for “The Last Jedi” with $95.3 million, followed by Germany with $65.1 million, France with $51.2 million, and Japan with $44.9 million.

 

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office-rogue-one-a-star-wars-story-1202652160/

 

 

[George Parr]

23 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I changed my post to $650m after some though which I believe is still a realistic bet. I guess it could go higher but eitherway the range is $700-750m.

That's a range I would agree with. China makes things a bit tricky, but something like 50m there should be enough to put it somewhere in the middle of the range.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

The U.K. is currently the top market for “The Last Jedi” with $95.3 million, followed by Germany with $65.1 million, France with $51.2 million, and Japan with $44.9 million.

 

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office-rogue-one-a-star-wars-story-1202652160/

 

 

At least it isn't losing steam in old markets. I don't know if it could match or come close to TFA's 163.5M (UK), 97.8M (Japan), 111M (Germany) and 88M (France) but numbers look promising in their own right. 

[Heretic]

TFA made $180m in the UK, the $163.5m happened when it was re-released in August and ER were weaker so it got adjusted down to $163.5m as that was the real-time conversion. BOM is stupid like that.

 

Looks like TLJ make between $115-120m in the UK, which is a drop of around 25% or so if TFA's gross is adjusted for today's ER. 

[KP1025]

Domestic is looking at sub-$650 million, maybe as low as $630 million. Based on the expected OS finish (> $700 million), TLJ should just barely pass DH2 ($1,341,511,219).

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, Heretic said:

TFA made $180m in the UK, the $163.5m happened when it was re-released in August and ER were weaker so it got adjusted down to $163.5m as that was the real-time conversion. BOM is stupid like that.

 

Looks like TLJ make between $115-120m in the UK, which is a drop of around 25% or so if TFA's gross is adjusted for today's ER. 

Thanks for explaining the difference in numbers. 

 

 

[UserHN]

On 1/4/2018 at 5:06 AM, KP1025 said:

Domestic is looking at sub-$650 million, maybe as low as $630 million. Based on the expected OS finish (> $700 million), TLJ should just barely pass DH2 ($1,341,511,219).

If TLJ ends up with a total of $1.35 billion, then that will be a drop of 34.7% from TFA. Almost similar to the drop of Episode 2 from Episode 1, which is 36.8%. I still hope TLJ will pass $1.4 billion, although $1.35 billion for a film with a very divided audience reception is not bad. Other studios wish they have this kind of franchise that grosses billions after billions. Although I'm sure that this streak will break with Solo. I can't envision that film making a billion. It will be lucky to pass $600 million worldwide.

Edited January 5, 2018 by UserHN

[hw64]

47 minutes ago, UserHN said:

If TLJ ends up with a total of $1.35 billion, then that will be a drop of 34.7% from TFA. Almost similar to the drop of Episode 2 from Episode 1, which is 36.8%. I still hope TLJ will pass $1.4 billion, although $1.35 billion for a film with a very divided audience reception is not bad. Other studios wish they have this kind of franchise that grosses billions after billions. Although I'm sure that this streak will break with Solo. I can't envision that film making a billion. It will be lucky to pass $600 million worldwide.

You're using the $1.027b figure for TPM, which includes the $102.7m worldwide gross for its 3D re-release. In its initial run, TPM made $924.3m, and Attack of the Clones' $649.4m is down 29.7% from that.

[peludo]

On 31/12/2017 at 6:24 PM, Elessar said:

I was almost spot on!

 

People really do think it'll only do $50m in China? Seems kinda ridiculously low, considering TFA did $125m...

The initial numbers say that it will not do $50m. Maybe just $35m...

[Olive]

China might be its 6th biggest OS market.

UK  Japan Germany France Oz

[KP1025]

With lower numbers than expected in China, it looks like TLJ will be in a very close race for #8 worldwide.