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Wednesday Box Office - (Asgard2) R1 18.5, Sing 16

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Just now, CJohn said:

I am still waiting until their wide releases to decide if the curse is over or not.

Don't worry, they'll be bombing again after these movies pass. They just got lucky that they had multiple prestige/easy sell projects for the end of the year.

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It will presumably spend the weekend leapfrogging over the likes of Suicide Squad ($745m), Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them ($747m) and possibly (but not certainly) Deadpool ($783m).

about SW R1 out of the Forbes link above

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

It pisses me off that good movies like Moana, Doctor Strange, and Fantastic Beasts gross less than Rogue One: A Member Berries Story and Illuminati's latest marketing ploy Sing.

 

This happens all the time. It's nothing new man. 

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2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Let's assume by some nightmare miracle Sing is at 180M with a 14M Monday like grim said. The rest of the week will drop 65-70% (let's assume its 50M) for 25M. The grand total is at 205M.

 

 

.........Fuck, this is going to beat Moana.

 

Yeah, that's depressing.  I was rooting for animated humans catching on again...

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15 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I would expect maybe a bit higher? 58-60 million? I'm no expert on this though, haven't looked at trends

63-65M, it should be relatively flat from 2nd weekend.

 

23

20

22

 

65M 3rd weekend, 3rd best behind SW7 and Avatar.

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, both are making a lot of money on their own terms, this isn't a Daddy's Home situation (where families sold out from The Force Awakens went for the back-up plan). Jumanji's also gonna make a killing next Christmas too.

 

Eh, I don't think Jumanji's gonna do that well. At least I'm a bit more pessimistic about the film's box office, unless it turns out better than expected. 

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8 minutes ago, druv10 said:

63-65M, it should be relatively flat from 2nd weekend.

 

23

20

22

 

65M 3rd weekend, 3rd best behind SW7 and Avatar.

 

Wow, I guess I'm being pretty conservative. I was thinking something like 22-18-16 for 56 but even looking at it now it does seem pretty low. 22-20-18 for 60 might be the low end, actually.

 

Either way, like you said, it's poised to have the 3rd best third weekend of all time. A friend and I will be adding to Sunday's gross!

Edited by JB33
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48 minutes ago, JB33 said:

 

Crazy how far the Pirates of the Caribbean and Transformers franchises have fallen. Years ago they would have been among the most anticipated but they both suffered from sub-par 4th movies. However, like said 4th movies, overseas gross will prop the 5th entries up in 2017.

Not likely, I think a significant drop for both is coming in terms of WW gross.

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45 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Most movie's comparatively had steep drops barring Moana. Friday jump should be decent size.

 

Barring Fantastic Beasts as well, which had a better hold than Moana. Very good legs for FB these last days. I just wish it had opened bigger..

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It's also about the VOD time span change discussions

Quote

Capturing the lucrative millennial demographic continues to be a frustration for studio executives. While they can be counted on showing up during the opening weekend of a Star Wars or comic-book movie (i.e. close to half of Deadpool (47%), Suicide Squad (48%) and Rogue One’s (45%) opening night crowds were comprised of 18-34 year olds), they’re a group that decides quickly on social their opinion about a movie, and when coupled with film review aggregator site ratings (like Rotten Tomatoes) can impact a pic’s financial fate. Overall, outside of tentpoles, they’re a difficult demo to pull into the theater, and away from YouTube and Netflix. Per the MPAA’s most recent annual report, 18-24 frequent moviegoers fell 34% since 2012 from 8.7M to 5.7M in 2015, while the 25-39 age group declined 25%, falling from 9.9M to 7.4M over the same time frame.

http://deadline.com/2016/12/highest-grossing-movie-studios-2016-us-box-office-1201876405/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it

 

2016 DOMESTIC B.O. (Jan. 1-Dec. 26)

THUMB DISTRIBUTOR NO. OF FILMS %SHARE % VS. 2015 DOMESTIC B.O.
walt-disney-studios.png?resize=500%2C281 Walt Disney 16 26% +27% $2.89B
warner_bros-_pictures_logo-big.jpg?resiz Warner Bros. 37 17% +18% $1.89B
20th_century_fox_logo__131009230834.jpg? 20th Century Fox 36 13% +5% $1.5B
universal-logo-2.jpg?resize=500%2C281&w= Universal 20 12% -46% $1.33B
sony_pictures_logo.jpg?resize=500%2C281& Sony 25 8% -8% $885M
paramount-pictures-logo-featured-size.jp Paramount 18 8% +27% $854M
lionsgate-2017-logo-use-this-one.jpg?res Lionsgate 46 6% -2% $652M
  Other   10%   $1.2B
  TOTAL BOX OFFICE     +1.8% $11.3B
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Check out the official Box Office Pro 4-Day weekend forecast in the table below.

Title Distributor 4-Day Weekend Domestic Total through Monday, January 2 % increase over last weekend (4-Day to 4-Day)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Disney $82,000,000 $455,000,000 -14.69%
Sing Universal $55,000,000 $173,020,000 0.12%
Passengers (2016) Sony / Columbia $22,580,000 $66,900,000 -0.46%
Why Him? Fox $15,950,000 $39,820,000 2.66%
Assassin’s Creed Fox $14,390,000 $45,280,000 -2.78%
Moana Disney $13,500,000 $210,830,000 7.53%
Fences Paramount $13,380,000 $32,730,000 15.34%
La La Land Lionsgate/Summit $12,080,000 $35,530,000 30.70%
Office Christmas Party Paramount $7,450,000 $54,710,000 5.72%
Collateral Beauty Warner Bros. (New Line) $6,840,000 $28,170,000 7.29%

BO.com weekend forecast 4 day

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-rogue-one-three-peat-sing-hold-strong-passengers-assassins-creed-tumble/

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Solid holds for Rogue One and Sing. For Rogue, we could see something like a $17m Thursday, $21m Friday, $18m Saturday, $21m Sunday, which would give it ~$60m for the weekend and ~$435m through Sunday. Possibly $450m+ through Monday as well. 

No idea how to compare Sing, but it's worth noting that Tintin had a similar second-Wednesday drop and had an 11x multiplier off said day, which would put Sing at $280.3m for its final tally. Tintin was a leggy monster that Sing likely won't replicate, but it's worth noting that a similar range is on the table.

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17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The cast is why I have any faith in it being any good.

 

It's a good cast, and The Rock is probably gonna be charismatic as hell, however, it's entirely possible for the film to still not be good. Will see!

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