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FlashMaster659

Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

By FlashMaster659, in Numbers and Data

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FantasticBeasts Blockbuster

FantasticBeasts

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

 

Thats a common misunderstanding and I think it comes from people not having conviction and not wanting to be a cast out. If you enjoy a movie more it's a better movie for you. There is absolute no objective truth of how good or bad a movie is. That's entirely opinion. If you enjoy Harry Potter more than The Godfather it's a better movie to you, bottom line. These are works of art and opinion is what matters here.

No I disagree. Because what I enjoy is conected with my taste right? I hate musicals. I really do. I have never enjoyed a single one. So, I hated The Sound of Music as well. But no, it doesn't mean that because I don't like musicals, The Sound of Music is not a masterpiece of its genre or that there aren't musicals that are significant pieces of art. When I see a movie, at least that's what I do I try to watch it as not being me. Objectively. Were the actors good? Were the costumes good? All the technical aspects that are really important for a movie firstly. Then, going into a plot I am always hesitant and even If I don't like something, I am trying to comprehend whether another person would. I may not be the target audience of this movie. It's the attitude that you described that I actually find immature. It would be a huge step forward If we could all agree that even the things that we don't like can actually be good. I would be an egoist If I insisted that The Sound of Music is a bad movie just because I didn't like it.

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setna Sleeper Hit

setna

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Daxtreme said:

Alright, a few messages I've seen on reddit prompted me to try this, so I crunched some numbers and here is what I came up with concerning Rogue One's late legs, projected final gross and so on.

 

First of all, I needed weekly drops so I projected Rogue One's daily numbers for this week. I simply considered that Rogue One would drop 73% compared to last week on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It's a very reasonable week-to-week drop as good comps Sherlock Holmes' AND Mission Impossible's drops in 2011 (top 2 at the time) were both -65%, -70%, and -70% ---- worth noting that Girl With the Dragon Tattoo's drops were -55%, -55%, and -60%, however Alvin's were -70%, -80%, -80% and Tintin -63%, -72%, -75% ---- so all in all, I think -73% all week is a pretty good middle ground and a good start for a projection.

 

Anyway --

 

Tuesday --> 22.5 * 0.27 = 6.1M

Wednesday --> 18 * 0.27 = 4.9M

Thursday --> 16.7 * 0.27 = 4.5M

total = 15.5M

 

Add that to this 4-day week-end (64.35M) and weekly total is 79.9M

Current Dom total with projection, on Jan 5 = 455.3M

 

Now, I simply apply a 50% weekly drop every single week to Rogue One for 8 weeks

 

39.9
20
10
5
2.5
1.25
0.625
0.31

= 79.5M

 

Add that to current Dom total and you end up with 535M

 

Now here is why I think this is the floor for Rogue One...

 

First of all, 50% weekly drops won't happen because of weeks like MLK with epic holds.

 

Second, I ran the same test with TFA, Sherlock Holmes 2, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, and Alvin and the Chipmunks (2011) just to see what happens if you apply a 50% week-to-week drop for the remainder of their runs at the same point in time as Rogue One is right now, since they are good comps (TFA is more for fun because Star Wars :ph34r:)

 

Here is what happened:

 

The Force Awakens - 770.38M Dom total (lol) on Jan 7 (118.4M weekly gross at ~same point in time as Rogue One), then apply 50% weekly drops:
59.2
29.6
14.8
7.4
3.7
1.85
1

0.5
= 888.5M projected total (vs 936.6M actual final total, which is 5% higher than projected)
 

Sherlock Holmes 2 - 143.36M Dom total on Jan 5 (33.34M weekly gross at same point in time as Rogue One), then apply 50% weekly drops:
16.7
8.3
4.2
2.1
1
0.5

0.25

0.1
= 176.5M projected total (vs 186.85M actual final total, which is 6% higher than projected)
 

Same maths with MI:Ghost Protocol gives a projected total of 196.35M (vs 209M actual final total, which is 6.4% higher than projected)

 

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked gives a projected total of 127.5M (vs 133M actual final total, which is 4% higher than projected)

 

Pretty much what that means is that, Final gross of all these movies is 4-6% higher than applying a very simple 50% drops to their weekly gross coming out of the holidays.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

SO!

 

...the lesson here is that Rogue One's final domestic take has a floor of 535M Domestic, with potential to reach in the ballpark of $570M, which is about 6% higher than 535M

 

I don't see it going much higher than that. That would mean it has better late legs than TFA, Sherlock Holmes, Mission Impossible:GP, and Alvin and the Chipmunks. Alvin, not so hard to believe, the others, not so much...

 

:redcapes:

 

That's it.

 

For those if you who already knew this, well, this post wasn't aimed at you :qotd:

It's aimed at those other folks out there who genuinely have no idea what range late legs can give a movie.

 

Thanks for watch, hope you liked kino, pls recommend :ph34r: 

 

 

 

Excellent job!!!

thanks for the present of so many interesting numbers to break our minds!!!

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JonathanLB Box Office Gold

JonathanLB

Posted
Posted

And that's a bad thing? If I don't like something, I don't find it good. Musicals are mostly terrible so I don't blame you and even I like some musicals but The Sound of Music sucks. Maybe if I was a chick I would dig it more I don't know, many girls I know love it. I will never know if that's part of the enjoyment because I'm a guy. There are movies that aren't meant to appeal to us, yes, but that doesn't mean you just give up your opinion and say "well it's good to someone I guess." No kidding every movie is good to someone. You act like "good acting" is a fact we can all agree on but it's not. I thought Natalie Portman was terrible in Jackie! Some of the most painful acting I've ever seen and you can SEE her acting. But other critics think it's great acting. And I love Natalie too but just didn't feel

her performance was good at all.

 

I don't know honestly what you're talking about because all you have is your own opinion about any movie and your opinion is a valid one. You have every right to call a classic movie a pile of shit. Legitimately 20% of so called "classics" are terrible movies lol.

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FantasticBeasts Blockbuster

FantasticBeasts

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

And that's a bad thing? If I don't like something, I don't find it good. Musicals are mostly terrible so I don't blame you and even I like some musicals but The Sound of Music sucks. Maybe if I was a chick I would dig it more I don't know, many girls I know love it. I will never know if that's part of the enjoyment because I'm a guy. There are movies that aren't meant to appeal to us, yes, but that doesn't mean you just give up your opinion and say "well it's good to someone I guess." No kidding every movie is good to someone. You act like "good acting" is a fact we can all agree on but it's not. I thought Natalie Portman was terrible in Jackie! Some of the most painful acting I've ever seen and you can SEE her acting. But other critics think it's great acting. And I love Natalie too but just didn't feel

her performance was good at all.

 

I don't know honestly what you're talking about because all you have is your own opinion about any movie and your opinion is a valid one. You have every right to call a classic movie a pile of shit. Legitimately 20% of so called "classics" are terrible movies lol.

Well we really have a big gap so I don't think that our conversation will be fetile. I will repeat that I find your attitude reallly egoistical and immature. As I previously stated, I didn't like The Lord Of The Rings. But how could I possibly not praise Mr.Tolkin for his inexhaustible imagination and his hardwork ending up creating a thorough world with every single detail even creating new languages with gramar,syntax etc. He was a genious wasn't he? Classics have gone down to history for a reason. Even If I don't like one of them I have very hardly witnessed a classical movie which I didn't find the reason why it has become a classic. It is important to be respectful and not jump in to conclusions so quickly. Some of those movies that you may call "piles of shit" may have changed the whole life to millions of peple worldwilde.

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Mojoguy Global Phenomenon

Mojoguy

Posted
Posted (edited)

The only thing Disney is not harbouring nostalgia about.


Disney turned down Lucas when he went to all the studios to get the first Star Wars made.

Imagine if Disney had just said yes.

Edited by Mojoguy
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DeeCee Global Phenomenon

DeeCee

Posted
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

Someone was criticizing Robocop earlier today and I was going to write up something in defense of it, but I forgot which thread it was in.

 

 

Have at it. But, a word of warning. BEHAVE YOURSELVES!

Edited by DeeCee
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

And that's a bad thing? If I don't like something, I don't find it good. Musicals are mostly terrible so I don't blame you and even I like some musicals but The Sound of Music sucks. Maybe if I was a chick I would dig it more I don't know, many girls I know love it. I will never know if that's part of the enjoyment because I'm a guy.

:depp: 

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filmscholar Blockbuster

filmscholar

Posted
Posted (edited)

As i've always said, Star Wars gets 3x's mutipler's in it's sleep, the 8th live action film in "Rogue One" is moving up all kinds of charts.   Won't be shocked in Han Solo drops December now.   Sorry but Christmas has turned into Star Wars Season now with the first spin off blowing everything away including "Avengers 2.5" and "BatsVSupes".   And it's soon to overtake the heavyweight "Nemo 2: Dory".    Illumination is just knocking it out of the park left and right so strong for "Sing".  "Moana" clearly is proving it's WOM as it's holds are very steady so Animation overall is having a good year.   Very, Very good for Denzel and "Fences".   Not only was the movie very emotional but it was masterfully acted and directed.   It needs to get several Oscar nods, Denzel is the man.  

 

"Passengers" is just chugging along, I think in another release spot it could of done a little better but it's just too crowded this holiday.   Does this prove Jen and Chris aren't the Drawing power outside of franchises?   I think the verdict is still out on both of them but they are the rising stars for the new generation and deserve time to grow but for right now Franchises are carrying both of them.   So though records were broken sales wise, tickets sold is a different story.   A lot of success in 2016 just like 2015 but there are still challenges going forward box office wise but 2017 is looking good, hopefully it doesn't dip from this year.   Overall decent year quality and box office wise.  Here's hoping for a strong 2017. 

Edited by filmscholar
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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

As i've always said, Star Wars gets 3x's mutipler's in it's sleep, the 8th live action film in "Rogue One" is moving up all kinds of charts.   Won't be shocked in Han Solo drops December now.   Sorry but Christmas has turned into Star Wars Season now with the first spin off blowing everything away including "Avengers 2.5" and "BatsVSupes".   And it's soon to overtake the heavyweight "Nemo 2: Dory".    Illumination is just knocking it out of the park left and right so strong for "Sing".  "Moana" clearly is proving it's WOM as it's holds are very steady so Animation overall is having a good year.   Very, Very good for Denzel and "Fences".   Not only was the movie very emotional but it was masterfully acted and directed.   It needs to get several Oscar nods, Denzel is the man.  

 

"Passengers" is just chugging along, I think in another release spot it could of done a little better but it's just too crowded this holiday.   Does this prove Jen and Chris aren't the Drawing power outside of franchises?   I think the verdict is still out on both of them but they are the rising stars for the new generation and deserve time to grow but for right now Franchises are carrying both of them.   So though records were broken sales wise, tickets sold is a different story.   A lot of success in 2016 just like 2015 but there are still challenges going forward box office wise but 2017 is looking good, hopefully it doesn't dip from thsi year.   Overall decent year quality and box office wise.  Here's hoping for a strong 2017. 

I'm pretty sure the holidays pretty much saved Passengers a ton.

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cookie Global Phenomenon

cookie

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Mojoguy said:


Disney turned down Lucas when he went to all the studios to get the first Star Wars made.

Imagine if Disney had just said yes.

 

In their defense, Lucas' original version of Star Wars was a pile of garbage.

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Lordmandeep Global Phenomenon

Lordmandeep

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, filmlover said:

A misinformed idea of masculinity is all the rage these days.

 

 

I think many guys like Mary Poppins or Sound of Music and have no issue listening to songs in TLK or Frozen.

 

 

But something like Glee? 

 

 

Nah

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