The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

I agree...my locals for 5pm or later showings already...

1st local - 131/585 (added an extra late show)

2nd local - 102/275 (moved to bigger 125 seat screen for last show - I think they will also add another 8pm show b/c they have only front row left - it tends to be their trend if they find an unsold screen early enough)

 

And I called it - 2nd local now has an extra 9pm showing, so HDD was dead in the morning, but it's hot after 5pm around here:)...

[FantasticBeasts]

Happy Death Day 28.2%

Blade Runner 2049 13%

The Foreigner 9.2%

The Last Jedi 7%

It 4.2%

 

Trust me when I say this, I have no clue but didn't TLJ fall a bit quickly?

I think someone said that TFA didn't leave the MT Top 5 from the moment tickets went available till release!

Edited October 14, 2017 by FantasticBeasts

[Daenys]

Happy Death Day 28.8%

Blade Runner 2049 13.2%

The Foreigner 9.8%

The Last Jedi 5.3%

It 4.5%

[Poseidon]

4 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Happy Death Day 28.2%

Blade Runner 2049 13%

The Foreigner 9.2%

The Last Jedi 7%

It 4.2%

 

Trust me when I say this, I have no clude but didn't TLJ fall a bit quickly?

I think someone said that TFA didn't leave the MT Top 5 from the moment tickets went available till release!

When presales started for the first one, it was all over the media, telling you, you have to buy your ticket NOWWWWWW!:

It's different this time, start of the presales was not such a huge event, so sales will concentrate on when the final marketing push starts 3 weeks before the movie opens. 

Edited October 14, 2017 by Poseidon

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

It's different this time, start of the presales was not such a huge event, so sales will concentrate on when the final marketing push starts 3 weeks before the movie opens. 

 

Make no mistake, the presales for TLJ are almost assuredly ahead of everything that's come out since TFA in only about a week. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Boner Omega said:

 

Make no mistake, the presales for TLJ are almost assuredly ahead of everything that's come out since TFA in only about a week. 

It has fallen out of MT top 5 right now, though...that's just a week for it to do that...

 

I think we saw the "must be there opening night no matter the cost or hassle" crowd buyers which has been a huge amount.  If you see a generic ticket deal on Atom or Fandango, you'll see another huge surge.  Plus, if they release Xmas week dates (b/c few have - most did 1st week only), there will be another surge of buyers...and obviously, once reviews hit and then a week out...

 

This will be a little more fits and starts than constant...but it probably does mean that TFA will still be king...

Edited October 14, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[grim22]

TLJ out of the Pulse and MT top 5. While it definitely had a big burst up top for sure, TFA is showing just how different and big of a beast it was. First time it wasn't on Pulse was 3 weeks later and first time for MT was 6 weeks later from when tickets went on sale. And that was only over Thanksgiving weekend. 

 

Doubt if we see the scale of TFA presales ever again.

[FantasticBeasts]

23 minutes ago, grim22 said:

TLJ out of the Pulse and MT top 5. While it definitely had a big burst up top for sure, TFA is showing just how different and big of a beast it was. First time it wasn't on Pulse was 3 weeks later and first time for MT was 6 weeks later from when tickets went on sale. And that was only over Thanksgiving weekend. 

 

Doubt if we see the scale of TFA presales ever again.

So maybe we need to readjust those +$800m predictions? I just can't see how it may come that close to the monster that TFA was.

$700m should be a good target If you ask me.

[Boxofficerules]

I've seen a few Jigsaws and Boo 2 selling today on Pulse.

[MattW]

12 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

So maybe we need to readjust those +$800m predictions? I just can't see how it may come that close to the monster that TFA was.

$700m should be a good target If you ask me.

I agree.  The appropriate question is 'how much bigger than Rogue One will it be' rather than 'how much smaller than TFA'

[George Parr]

14 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

So maybe we need to readjust those +$800m predictions? I just can't see how it may come that close to the monster that TFA was.

$700m should be a good target If you ask me.

You are talking about this as if predictions were some sort of group consensus. Plenty of people offer plenty of different predictions, there isn't really anything anyone "should" do.

 

So far we have no real numbers whatsoever. The only thing we do know is that the movie is selling a lot better than Rogue One, while having started presales a whole lot earlier. Without having any actual numbers - and even the ones we might get in a month or so won't truly matter, you have to wait for closer to the release for that - and with presales only making up a fraction of what a movie finishes with, there isn't really any reason for someone to change his prediction. We know that TFA had presales that exceeded 100m, I think the last reports were talking about 120-130m or so. That's still a small number compared to the 936m the movie finished with. Seeing how presales weren't just for the OW, it wasn't even half of what TFA made on opening weekend.

 

On top of not knowing any real numbers, we also don't know anything about what people will do before the release. Maybe interest is quite a bit lower in general, maybe there isn't as big of a rush to get tickets right away but huge numbers when the movie gets closer. There are plenty of possible options. It's far too early to draw any conclusions about the total - or any number - yet.

[FantasticBeasts]

10 minutes ago, George Parr said:

You are talking about this as if predictions were some sort of group consensus. Plenty of people offer plenty of different predictions, there isn't really anything anyone "should" do.

 

So far we have no real numbers whatsoever. The only thing we do know is that the movie is selling a lot better than Rogue One, while having started presales a whole lot earlier. Without having any actual numbers - and even the ones we might get in a month or so won't truly matter, you have to wait for closer to the release for that - and with presales only making up a fraction of what a movie finishes with, there isn't really any reason for someone to change his prediction. We know that TFA had presales that exceeded 100m, I think the last reports were talking about 120-130m or so. That's still a small number compared to the 936m the movie finished with. Seeing how presales weren't just for the OW, it wasn't even half of what TFA made on opening weekend.

 

On top of not knowing any real numbers, we also don't know anything about what people will do before the release. Maybe interest is quite a bit lower in general, maybe there isn't as big of a rush to get tickets right away but huge numbers when the movie gets closer. There are plenty of possible options. It's far too early to draw any conclusions about the total - or any number - yet.

Fair enough. I am just sharing thoughts even If they sometimes are premature.

[DAJK]

I honestly forgot Boo 2 was coming out next weekend. Thinking it drops significantly from the first.

 

15/40

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I honestly forgot Boo 2 was coming out next weekend. Thinking it drops significantly from the first.

 

15/40

I'm actually expecting Only the Brave to stealthily pull out a slight win for #1.

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm actually expecting Only the Brave to stealthily pull out a slight win for #1.

Boo is winning with 20M or so.

[YM!]

On 10/1/2017 at 12:19 PM, YourMother said:

Thor Rangarok 

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI (32 days before previews, 33 days before release)

 

6:00 - 15/301 - Ultrascreen 

9:00 - 30/301 - Ultrascreen 

11:55 - 2/301 - Ultrascreen 

 

Running at 95% of Homecoming when Homecoming was at 17 days before release.

 

Thor Ragnarok 

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI (18 days before previews, 19 days before release)

 

6:00 - 20/301 Ultrascreen 

9:00 - 58/301 Ultrascreen 

11:55 - 2/301 Ultrascreen

 

Running 60% ahead of Homecoming at about the same time. However it's possible the fan screening cause the 9:00 one to inflate, so without the 6:00 showing it's running 20% ahead of Homecoming.

Edited October 15, 2017 by YourMother

[Mojoguy]

Running 60% ahead of Homecoming at about the same time. However it's possible the fan screening cause the 9:00 one to inflate, so without the 6:00 showing it's running 20% ahead of Homecoming.

And Homecoming "only" had a $117M Opening Weekend.
Thor 3 could be something special.

[YM!]

In terms of Friday presales, Ragnarok and Homecoming are about the same with Homecoming slightly ahead. But with both Thursday and Friday, Ragnarok is 26% ahead of Homecoming with fan previews, without it it's 7% ahead.

[raegr]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

In terms of Friday presales, Ragnarok and Homecoming are about the same with Homecoming slightly ahead. But with both Thursday and Friday, Ragnarok is 26% ahead of Homecoming with fan previews, without it it's 7% ahead.

Ragnarok is a sequel and is receiving exceptional online buzz, so I expect it to be very fanboy front loaded. 2.4x is my prediction for it's run but a SS internal multiplier wouldn't surprise me. 

[TwoMisfits]

If you all remember, Spidey's presales (just like WW) indicated a smaller OW.  Original estimates from Deadline Friday morning indicated $95-$100M+ Spidey OW even after the high Thursday number.  By midday, Deadline moved it up to $105M, and then overestimated to $125-$127M after full Fri numbers, before it settled at $117M.  This is a long way of saying Spidey's presales looked like a $95-$100M OW...not a $117M one...  

 

So, pacing Spidey presales would actually indicate a $95-$100M OW, not a $117M one...especially since 3rd sequels are less likely to be the type of movie that walks up unexpectedly like WW and Spidey did...yes, you can all now jump and say Spidey was a 6th sequel and WW was a 2nd one...but not in ways that count:)...

Edited October 15, 2017 by TwoMisfits