The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

"Maxim estimates that MoviePass has already reached 1 million subscribers and is well on its way to the 2 million mark." (Maxim estimate - from Bezinga article Dec 5th)...

 

So, these folks are wildcards when comparing presales for TLJ to RO (and TFA)...do these folks prebuy, or will they just jump on to open seats when they see them each morning at theaters...

 

I mean, it was 200K subscribers in September...but now we're talking 1M+ and rapidly increasing...so the impact on presales which may not happen vs same day that will is gonna grow...

[FantasticBeasts]

2 hours ago, ReyReyBattery said:

 

No exact TFA comps for today as far as I can tell. Would've been around the low 50's though.

 

Rogue One:

 

MT:

Office Christmas Party- 16%

Rogue One- 15.1%

Moana- 13.8%

Manchester by the Sea- 7.9%

Fantastic Beasts- 7.4%

So it is closer to RO than it is to TFA?

I mean the comparisons are difficult so I dont know what to tell but I guess that If this was to have a +$220m weekend it should have been closer to TFA than it sems to be from the mertics we have.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

So it is closer to RO than it is to TFA?

I mean the comparisons are difficult so I dont know what to tell but I guess that If this was to have a +$220m weekend it should have been closer to TFA than it sems to be from the mertics we have.

IMO, comparisons like these aren't really helpful. We know TLJ will do gangbusters. % of MT this early on won't really change that. Very hard to compare an upcoming release with holdovers that are 3+ weeks old. The market is never the same at two different points in time as in the TFA and RO time periods. Yes, advanced/online sales increase in popularity over the years, but that applies to ALL films, not just Star Wars.

 

Anyways, TLJ will never reach those TFA MT numbers due to Ferdinand opening the same week regardless

 

 

[Dementeleus]

Deep Wang's numbers are a better bet than MT percentages. 

[FantasticBeasts]

11 minutes ago, Lor San Tele said:

Deep Wang's numbers are a better bet than MT percentages. 

If there were any for TFA. There is no other comparison brtween the two that we hsve so thst's why I tried it while of cource knowing that it wasn't precise.

16 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

IMO, comparisons like these aren't really helpful. We know TLJ will do gangbusters. % of MT this early on won't really change that. Very hard to compare an upcoming release with holdovers that are 3+ weeks old. The market is never the same at two different points in time as in the TFA and RO time periods. Yes, advanced/online sales increase in popularity over the years, but that applies to ALL films, not just Star Wars.

 

Anyways, TLJ will never reach those TFA MT numbers due to Ferdinand opening the same week regardless

 

 

I am aware that this is not an acvurate compatison by any means but as I said it is the only one that I can find.

What I am trying to say that If TLJ is about to pull something like $230m, it SHOULD be doing numbers close to TFA. Which doesn't feel very believable to me right now.

I personally think it will do over $200m but it will barely cross it. ($200-210m)

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

8 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

If there were any for TFA. There is no other comparison brtween the two that we hsve so thst's why I tried it while of cource knowing that it wasn't precise.

I am aware that this is not an acvurate compatison by any means but as I said it is the only one that I can find.

What I am trying to say that If TLJ is about to pull something like $230m, it SHOULD be doing numbers close to TFA. Which doesn't feel very believable to me right now.

I personally think it will do over $200m but it will barely cross it. ($200-210m)

Im also with you that its closer to 210 and not 230, but MT didn't sway me on that personally. I think Ferdinand takes away JUST enough, considering it wont be as weak as the 4th Chipmunks movie. Tracking at this level becomes more of a dartboard at this point.

 

Now, if the reviews come out that its the best ever Star Wars film no questions asked, that might bring in the folks that are playing it safe i.e. the folks who didnt like TFA/RO

[Dementeleus]

16 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

If there were any for TFA. There is no other comparison brtween the two that we hsve so thst's why I tried it while of cource knowing that it wasn't precise.

I am aware that this is not an acvurate compatison by any means but as I said it is the only one that I can find.

What I am trying to say that If TLJ is about to pull something like $230m, it SHOULD be doing numbers close to TFA. Which doesn't feel very believable to me right now.

I personally think it will do over $200m but it will barely cross it. ($200-210m)

 

I don't think it's gonna get close to TFA's OW but the MT percentages aren't numbers. There's too many variables to reasonably use as a direct comp. All they're useful for is a sniff of the current moment in time. 

[aabattery]

Coco is this weekend is gonna end up about 8M ahead of anything that was on this weekend back in 2015. I think the difference in competition makes the MT comparisons a bit moot, but they're interesting to look at. I wouldn't rely on them as a barometer for TLJ's performance.

[JonathanLB]

It’s going to be a hell of a lot closer to TFA than RO. I think all of the metrics make me think $225M. Tickets are also 10% more expensive in most metro areas from 2 years ago so regardless of whether attendance is down 20% the OW won’t be down more than 10% IMO.

[filmlover]

iPic is already selling tickets for the Christmas openers and so far Father Figures has a lot more than Downsizing. 

[Porthos]

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT REPORT: T-5 days

 

Previews: 34/133 (+3/+1) [R1: 8/107 showings]

(Includes Double Feature & Opening Night Fan Event)

 

2D: 28/89 (+2/+1) [R1: 6/71]

3D: 6/44 (+1/0)   [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 81 showings [R1: 46 showings]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

11 (-2) [R1: 4]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

6 (+1) [R1: 5]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or the equivalent amount of seats)

30 (+2) [R1: 20]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

1 (-1) [R1: 1]

 

NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

[That One Girl]

38 minutes ago, Porthos said:

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT REPORT: T-5 days

 

Previews: 34/133 (+3/+1) [R1: 8/107 showings]

(Includes Double Feature & Opening Night Fan Event)

 

2D: 28/89 (+2/+1) [R1: 6/71]

3D: 6/44 (+1/0)   [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 81 showings [R1: 46 showings]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

11 (-2) [R1: 4]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

6 (+1) [R1: 5]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or the equivalent amount of seats)

30 (+2) [R1: 20]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

1 (-1) [R1: 1]

 

NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

Those are some strong sellout numbers for Ferdinand.

Edited December 10, 2017 by That One Guy

[Deep Wang]

3 hours ago, Lor San Tele said:

Deep Wang's numbers are a better bet than MT percentages. 

 

😂😂😂😂

[filmlover]

I will never read the words "Deep Wang" and not laugh at least a little. 

[MrPink]

5 hours ago, Lor San Tele said:

 

I don't think it's gonna get close to TFA's OW but the MT percentages aren't numbers. There's too many variables to reasonably use as a direct comp. All they're useful for is a sniff of the current moment in time. 

 

Tons of factors. Off the top of my head, presales have changed a lot in two years but that probably benefits the holdovers more than it does TLJ. People may not have been as inclined to buy tickets online for currently released movies back then as they are now as reserved seating increases in popularity (TFA was probably already peak of presales anyway so there wasn't any room to go up). The earlier release by 3 days probably means less sales for Christmas weekend etc that TFA got pre-release. People may have been better prepared to get tickets this time knowing how TFA went so there's not as much of a late rush.

 

Without any context, we don't know for sure how these percentages translate.

Edited December 10, 2017 by MrPink

[Cap]

16 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

"Maxim estimates that MoviePass has already reached 1 million subscribers and is well on its way to the 2 million mark." (Maxim estimate - from Bezinga article Dec 5th)...

 

So, these folks are wildcards when comparing presales for TLJ to RO (and TFA)...do these folks prebuy, or will they just jump on to open seats when they see them each morning at theaters...

 

I mean, it was 200K subscribers in September...but now we're talking 1M+ and rapidly increasing...so the impact on presales which may not happen vs same day that will is gonna grow...

It will probably depend on if they want to see it in IMAX 3D, which is not covered by the card.

 

[YM!]

10 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Those are some strong sellout numbers for Ferdinand.

🅱ullieve 🅱oi 

[tonytr87]

22 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

"Maxim estimates that MoviePass has already reached 1 million subscribers and is well on its way to the 2 million mark." (Maxim estimate - from Bezinga article Dec 5th)...

 

So, these folks are wildcards when comparing presales for TLJ to RO (and TFA)...do these folks prebuy, or will they just jump on to open seats when they see them each morning at theaters...

 

I mean, it was 200K subscribers in September...but now we're talking 1M+ and rapidly increasing...so the impact on presales which may not happen vs same day that will is gonna grow...

 

I have MoviePass and when it comes to something like Star Wars you gotta forgo your pass in order to buy advance tickets...unless you want to wait three weeks for the crowds to die down. This is especially true if you want to see it in IMAX. MoviePass only allows standard 2d screenings. 

Edited December 10, 2017 by tonytr87

[Rumpot]

38 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

I have MoviePass and when it comes to something like Star Wars you gotta forgo your pass in order to buy advance tickets...unless you want to wait three weeks for the crowds to die down. This is especially true if you want to see it in IMAX. MoviePass only allows standard 2d screenings. 

I read on slickdeals that people were using Moviepass daily and then taking the ticket to the desk to exchange for a Star Wars ticket.  Apparently some moviepass users have accumulated a lot of Star Wars tickets.  Again FWIW as it was just a few posts on slickdeals in response to a thread about an AMC gift card deal.

-It's stuff like this that makes me quite certain Moviepass is not going to survive

Edited December 10, 2017 by Rumpot

[Ethan Hunt]

41 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

I have MoviePass and when it comes to something like Star Wars you gotta forgo your pass in order to buy advance tickets...unless you want to wait three weeks for the crowds to die down. This is especially true if you want to see it in IMAX. MoviePass only allows standard 2d screenings. 

couldn't you just go earlier in the day to buy your ticket?