The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric Prime]

Update before RPO Previews:

 

Ready Player One (3-Day)	216	2394	7.85%
Ready Player One (4-Day)	417	3248	10.90%
Acrimony	474	1148	41.29%

 

I don't have the time to do comps, because I have a meeting in a half hour, RPO's Thursday premiere complicates a lot of things and I had a long, busy, stressful day, so I don't really have the energy.

 

But, I can still give some quick notes:

-RPO is super frontloaded (Wed 110 tickets, Thurs 91, Fri 117, Sat 66, Sun 33).

 

-Someone mentioned that because it was premiering on Thursday, many people might not be aware that it comes out that day. Well judging by the distribution, that doesn't seem to be the case. Of course, this could just be due to fanboys, and maybe walkups will happen for those unaware of the Thursday date? Maybe...yeah, probably not.

 

-Before y'all go "ZOMG ACRIMONY GON BREAKOUT", black-led films at this theater severely overperform. If the box office followed my theater, Proud Mary would have been #1, and Wrinkle in Time would have made around $10-20M more than it actually did. Although with RPO being in the bigger theaters and having double the showtimes...yeah, it's a tad concerning that Tyler Perry has sold more than Steven Spielberg.

 

-Acrimony's sold about 70 more tickets than Proud Mary, so at the very least, somewhere in the teens should happen for that film.

[narniadis]

Thanks @CoolEric258 I find your presales trend to mirror what normally happens on Easter weekend. Not saying RP1 isn't frontloaded, it probably will be to an extant, but that the behavior is normal for the holiday flow.

[Brinatico]

6.00 PM ET. 5 min on pulse

RP1 216 tickets/5min

If this no make $60M on weekend then sorry.. this one is huge

[MovieMan89]

RPO needs to be pulling at least 10m on Thursday with previews if it's that frontloaded. Anything less will be really bad for the 4 day. 

[filmlover]

Ready Player One has sold 43 seats out of (out of 148 total) for the 7:00 XD showing 10 minutes before showtime.

 

The 7:20 has sold 33 seats out of 62 so far.

Edited March 28, 2018 by filmlover

[KeepItU25071906]

34 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

 if it's that frontloaded

[Porthos]

I know one can say this for a lot of films, but I really think we have no real idea how RPO will perform overall after the next couple of days, and probably won't have a great handle on things until deep in the weekend.

 

One of the most famous directors ever.

Audience alienating premise to some degree.

Mixed, at best, marketing.

Very good reviews mixed in with some meh ones.

Looks to be having good WOM from some doubters.

Target audience is raving over it.

At worst, looks to be a fun popcorn movie.

 

This really could go in a LOT of different directions.

 

If the audience latches on to the fun popcorn film aspect, this could get lots of legs simply as folks who are on the fence are persuaded to go see it from friends and acquaintances.  Or it could just be "Nah, I'm good, I'll catch it on Netflix/Blu Ray" no matter how good the WOM is.

 

Add in the weird release window (I didn't even know this had a Thr release until a couple of weeks ago and I was following it semi-closely) and it makes it even more uncertain.

 

Just think we might want to hold off a rush to judgement on this one even more than we ought to do normally.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2018 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local (Regal) is up...and it showed that opening a movie the 2nd weekend after everyone else already had it, isn't always the best plan!  ICOI is dropped to 2 showings, while God's Not Dead 3 also opens here, so this movie seems like it should be the widest opener of the 3 religious movies (don't know if it deserved it, but the studio obviously knew how to get this booked).  Also, there are like 3 unaccounted for 7pms and one 4pm (not counting what could happen late night) - I THINK they are watching to see if Acrimony or RPO needs them - Acrimony is 1/2 sold out for its small 7pm already, so I can see one flowing here...and RPO is the type of movie that could (and better) break big here.  Here's the full set...

 

NEW

Ready Player One (2.2 - 6 2d / 4 3d - 3 7pm hour shows, stealing PCU's 7pm - biggest/above average)

God's Not Dead 3 (1 - 5 showings - above average)

Acrimony (1 - 5 showings - smallest)

 

RETURNING

Pacific Rim Uprising (.8 - lost 7pm to RPO already - damn!)

Sherlock Gnomes (1)

Love Simon (1)

AWiT (1)

Red Sparrow (.2 - 10pm show only)

ICOI (.5 - 2 morning showings only)

Tomb Raider (.8 - lost 7pm)

Black Panther (1.5 - 1 full + 2 morning showings)

 

GONE (a bloodbath)

Game Night, Strangers, Peter Rabbit...

 

So, if this is a sign for the weekend...

 

For Fri-Sun, PRU got its 7pm back...ICOI got 2 more shows...the theater is still missing 1-2 7pms, but I think this theater thinks the holdovers will sell well enough and/or the new movies won't be so over the top to need the extra showings for this weekend...not a great sign for RPO to be an over-the-top breakout, so I'd keep my expectations probably at the high end of tracking at the max...

 

AND Game Night got a 7pm showing back, so it's no longer dropped - wow, that was a last minute call:)...

Edited March 28, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Hiccup23]

Ready Player One

202

1,428

14.1%

 

 

Barely a head of Pacific Rim 2

 

Not a bad number though. Solid since it is opening on Wednesday 

[Mojoguy]

I see 7PM and 10PM Wednesday night showings for RPO in my city which I find surprising.

Anyone actually expect them to do well? I feel marketing has been pretty bad so far, that most people won't even know about them. Not expecting good preview numbers.

[dxmatrixdt]

Friday March 30th, 20 theaters from Fandango

 

GND3 = 58 shows from 13 theaters.  Not the same as 58 shows divided out amongst 13 theaters, but tickets/theater would be when deriving from reported numbers.

 

Peter Rabbit + Jumanji has a double feature I am not including below.  5 theaters out of 20 have it.  10 showings.

Greatest Showman has a singalong version option and a regular option.  I am combining those.  

 

                    showings/theater, 20 theaters total

God's Not Dead 3 - 58 /13 = 4.5 average

Ready Player One - 219/20 = 10.95 average

Acrimony - 94/20 = 4.7 average

Midnight Sun - 54/18 = 3.0 average

Pacific Rim 2 - 135/20 = 6.75 average.......  20 people per showing for GND3 for 4.5 showings a day.  Take the same rate, but multiply this avg (20) by 6.75

Paul, Apostle - 65/15 = 4.33                                                                           ^^=90 tickets vs 135 tickets   ^^ same density, twice as much.

Sherlock - 114/20 = 5.7 - (avg ticket price w. matinees... could round # down to 5.)

Isle of Dogs - 30/4 = 7.5

Imagine - 85/18 = 4.5

Tomb - 90/20 = 4.5

Unsane - 55/19 - 2.9

Red Sparrow - 23/9 = 2.56

Black Panther - 111/20 = 5.55

Love, Simon - 88/19 = 4.63

Wrinkle in Time - 74/16 = 4.63

Strangers 2 - 23/5 = 4.6

Game Night - 59/16 = 3.7

Showman - 20/6 = 3.3

Annihilation - 19/6 = 3.2
Death Wish - 12/4 = 3.0

*Peter Rabbit - 20/7 = 2.9 + double feature

*Jumanji  - 6/2 = 3.0 + double feature

Shades - 3/1 = 3.0

Water - 3/1 = 3.0

Edited March 29, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Mojoguy]

Peter Rabbit + Jumanji has a double feature I am not including below. 5 theaters out of 20 have it. 10 showings.

Holy crap, that's much more than I was expecting.

[Barnack]

I am beginning to gather so much information I am not sure how to paste it now or to keep it (just redid some SQL database in a very long time).

 

Here are the sales (and I think now without duplicate) that I got from Fandango between tuesday 19h53 to wednesday (today) 18h50, ET time.

 

The sales are breakdown by when the movie will play, Acrimony could have a nice friday night performance, Black Panther I imagine will get ahead of PR really soon, RPO could be a way more direct competition to Pacific Rim than anything else playing:

 

Wed Mar 28 2018			Thu Mar 29 2018			Fri Mar 30 2018
Ready Player One	8734		Ready Player One	3637		Ready Player One	3560
Black Panther	2635		Tyler Perrys Acrimony	677		Tyler Perrys Acrimony	2060
Pacific Rim Uprising	2031		Black Panther	352		Black Panther	363
Sherlock Gnomes	1739		Sherlock Gnomes	304		I Can Only Imagine	355
A Wrinkle in Time	1542		I Can Only Imagine	289		Sherlock Gnomes	336
I Can Only Imagine	1537		Pacific Rim Uprising	227		Pacific Rim Uprising	243
Love, Simon	1247		A Wrinkle in Time	208		A Wrinkle in Time	181
Tomb Raider (2018)	909		Love, Simon	186		Paul, Apostle of Christ	164
Isle of Dogs	772		Isle of Dogs	148		Gods Not Dead	130
Peter Rabbit	755		Paul, Apostle of Christ	120		Love, Simon	116
Paul, Apostle of Christ	694		Peter Rabbit	92		Isle of Dogs	115
Game Night (2018)	423		Tomb Raider (2018)	90		Peter Rabbit	85
Midnight Sun (2018)	414		Gods Not Dea	55		Tomb Raider (2018)	77
Pony	343		Midnight Sun (2018)	49		Best F(r)iends Movie	59
Unsane (2018)	329		Game Night (2018)	34		Game Night (2018)	56
Red Sparrow	252		The Death of Stalin	21		Unsane (2018)	31
The Strangers	142		Red Sparrow	21		Midnight Sun (2018)	26
The Greatest Showman	106		Unsane (2018)	19		The Death of Stalin	25
Annihilation	96		The Greatest Showman	16		Red Sparrow	19
Jumanji	88		What We Started	12		Annihilation	15

---------

Sat Mar 31 2018			Sun Apr 1 2018			Mon Apr 2 2018
Ready Player One	2465		Ready Player One	759		Ready Player One	136
Tyler Perrys Acrimony	984		Tyler Perrys Acrimony	161		Best F(r)iends Movie	27
Black Panther	203		I Can Only Imagine	98		Black Panther	21
Pacific Rim Uprising	181		Black Panther	64		Sherlock Gnomes	18
I Can Only Imagine	177		Pacific Rim Uprising	57		Tyler Perrys Acrimony	16
The Metropolitan Opera	166		Paul, Apostle of Christ	50		A Wrinkle in Time	9
Isle of Dogs	111		Sherlock Gnomes	46		Gods Not Dead	6
Sherlock Gnomes	103		A Wrinkle in Time	38		I Can Only Imagine	6
Love, Simon	96		Isle of Dogs	38		Love, Simon	5
A Wrinkle in Time	88		Gods Not Dead	32		Peter Rabbit	5
Paul, Apostle of Christ	87		Tomb Raider (2018)	23		Isle of Dogs	4
Gods Not Dead	80		Love, Simon	22		Paul, Apostle of Christ	3
Tomb Raider (2018)	60		Peter Rabbit	16		Pacific Rim Uprising	3
Game Night (2018)	27		Game Night (2018)	13		The Death of Stalin	2
The Death of Stalin	24		The Death of Stalin	12		Annihilation	1
Peter Rabbit	17		Midnight Sun (2018)	5		Baaghi 2	1
Unsane (2018)	13		The Greatest Showman	4		Call Me by Your Name	1
Midnight Sun (2018)	12		Unsane (2018)	4		The Greatest Showman	1
Red Sparrow	11		Baaghi 2	3		Midnight Sun (2018)	1
DEEP REDBIRD	9		Final Portrait	3		Tomb Raider (2018)	1

 

 

I just learned about Best F(R)riends movie, Wiseau and Sestero The Room reunion. 

 

That will be a first rought test to see if looking at pre-sales well in advance can be an indication.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2018 by Barnack

[WrathOfHan]

Ah fuck I forgot all about RPO previews  let me see if i can find the URLs

 

Edit: A last minute 8:45 show was added that's only sold 3/60 tickets

Edited March 29, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

Yep, can't find the URLs. The 2D show was already fairly full earlier, so I'll take the lack of sales for the new show as a bad sign

[KeepItU25071906]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Edit: A last minute 8:45 show was added that's only sold 3/60 tickets

South states vs East/West....

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, KeepItU25071906 said:

South states vs East/West....

This isn't the type of movie that will only appeal to liberal or conservative areas.

[KeepItU25071906]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

This isn't the type of movie that will only appeal to liberal or conservative areas.

I know.

[WrathOfHan]

AMC's site doesn't list either of the earlier shows as sellouts, so that means they were 90% full at most (70 seats for 3D/60 for 2D). If I had to guess, 3D probably sold around 40 tickets while 2D sold 50-55. That would put sales a little ahead of Kingsman and Blade Runner (80) but behind Pacific Rim last week (117).

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, KeepItU25071906 said:

I know.

Then why did you bring that up?