The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

So, if we use Spidey HC as the baseline (which got insane Thursday/Friday walk ups), how is Ant Man comparing now that we are 6 hours to showtime (since it has 6pms tonight)?

 

I know Spidey put up $15.4M in previews (which grew rapidly through the night from Deadline's original $10M+, was it?)...is Ant Man gonna be close, or is it looking more like a "somewhere around $10M" start?

Edited July 5, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Nova]

Here is how Ant-Man looks tonight at my theater. I don’t know how other theaters are but it having so little Thursday showtimes relative to the type of film it is, will limit how much it can do in previews. It’s odd imo because during the weekend it’s getting 5 3D showtimes and 5 2D showtimes which is almost how much DP2 and Solo got and around what JW2 got. Those films had more showtimes on Thursday though so I have no idea why Ant-Man only has 4 showtimes tonight. 

 

3D

7:30 PM: 81/142 

 

2D 

6PM: 123/142

9PM 100/142 

10:30PM: 34/142 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

1:40PM ET - MT Update......Ant-Man seems to have finally gotten steam on MT

 

22.4% - The Incredibles 2

22.2% - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

16.5% - Ant-Man and the Wasp

13.6% - The First Purge

4.7% - Sicario: Day of the Soldado

[poweranimals]

Figured it'd be to #1 by now with it coming out tonight. 

[DAJK]

30 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Figured it'd be to #1 by now with it coming out tonight. 

It's not like it's guranteed to be the number 1 grosser for Thursday. There's a definite possibility that both it and Jurassic end up with 9M for Thursday, in which case it wouldn't be too crazy for it to only end up on par with JW by the end of the day if not just slightly ahead. 

[WrathOfHan]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Tonight at my theater for Ant-Man:

 

6:00: 50/113

7:00 3D: 18/78

8:30: 0/124

9:00: 32/113

9:45: 0/67

10:00 3D: 0/78

Total: 100/573

 

The 8:30 and 9:45 shows were just added minutes ago.

 

Comps (all final sales unless noted😞

 

9% of Infinity War (23.2M) (15 shows)

20% of Black Panther (40.4M) (9 shows)

21% of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (31.1M) (10 shows)

24% of Deadpool 2 (30.1M) (8 shows)

25% of Solo (21.1M) (9 shows)

30% of Thor: Ragnarok (36.8M) (6 shows)

31% of Justice League (29.1M) (6 shows)

31% of Incredibles 2 (56.6M) (4 shows)

 

So far this looks pretty good given it'll be more walkup based.

Update:

 

6:00: 80/113 (+30)

7:00 3D: 40/78 (+22)

8:30: 10/124 (+10)

9:00: 35/113 (+3)

9:45: 0/67

10:00 3D: 0/78

Total: 165/573 (+65)

 

Comps (all final sales):

 

16% of Infinity War (41.2M) (15 shows)

33% of Black Panther (66.7M) (9 shows)

35% of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (51.8M) (10 shows)

39% of Deadpool 2 (48.9M) (8 shows)

41% of Solo (34.6M) (9 shows)

49% of Thor: Ragnarok (60.1M) (6 shows)

51% of Justice League (47.8M) (6 shows)

51% of Incredibles 2 (91.4M) (4 shows)

[BugsBunny]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

It's not like it's guranteed to be the number 1 grosser for Thursday. There's a definite possibility that both it and Jurassic end up with 9M for Thursday, in which case it wouldn't be too crazy for it to only end up on par with JW by the end of the day if not just slightly ahead. 

Also - this is a TRAILING 24 hour number. So here we sit at 4pm ET/1pm PT, still catching almost the whole moviegoing Wednesday, nationwide. 

 

If it were even at this point it would suggest momentum to smash the other two on Thursday, because Thursday is only maybe 50% of the data being compared at this point. 

 

[Cooper Legion]

15 minutes ago, BugsBunny said:

Also - this is a TRAILING 24 hour number. So here we sit at 4pm ET/1pm PT, still catching almost the whole moviegoing Wednesday, nationwide. 

 

If it were even at this point it would suggest momentum to smash the other two on Thursday, because Thursday is only maybe 50% of the data being compared at this point. 

 

Here we sit at 4:10PM ET/1:10PM PT and AM&tW is #1 now:  

AM&TW 22.5 

Incredibles 20.7 

JWFK 20.5 

First Purge 13.3 

Soldado 4.2

Edited July 5, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[Porthos]

Ant Man & The Wasp Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:30pm - 1pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7361	10896	32.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:     897

 

.2877x as many tickets sold as Infinity War mid day of premiere.

.5072x as many tickets sold as Black Panther mid day of premiere.

.5962x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 mid day of the premiere. 

.6666x as many tickets sold as Solo mid day of premiere. 

.7137x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 mid day of premiere. 

 

===================

Detailed T-0 Mid-Day comps:

 

IW:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	17	182	2873	15159	81.05%

Total Seats Sold That Half-Day:        752

 

BP:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	9	136	4512	11481	60.70%

Total Seats Sold That Half-Day:        1040

 

DP2:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	167	9330	16201	42.41%

Total Seats Sold That Half-Day:          942

 

Solo:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	142	8150	13453	39.42%

Total Seats Sold That Half-Day:         425

 

JW2

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	147	8762	13715	36.11%

Total Seats That Half-Day:                 761

Edited July 5, 2018 by Porthos

[Eric Prime]

Ant-Man

665

3415

19.47%

 

Comps:

72% of Thor: Ragnarok ($89.4M)

47% of Justice League ($44.4M)

186% of Coco ($94.6M)

16% of Infinity War ($41.9M)

39% of Deadpool 2 ($49.5M)

62% of Solo ($52M)

26% of Incredibles 2 ($47.5M)

49% of Jurassic World ($72.2M)

 

Leaning towards Thor: Ragnarok as the best comparison here, both being Marvel movies, and partially because Ant-Man seems like it will get a lot of walk-ups thanks to family audiences which can help drive it towards that number.

 

But as always, I feel as if a number between Jurassic World and Thor seems like the safest bet.

[TwoMisfits]

Ant-Man started with very few Thursday shows (5 and 6) at my 2 locals this morning, but just got 2 extra 2d showings at each (for 7 and 8 now) - this is more than Solo, but still less than normal supers...but it's still only 4:50pm...

[TalismanRing]

Fandango AKV AP-  as of 4pm CST today

 

Incredibles: 5,763

JW:FK:  5,270

The First Purge: 2,957

 

AM&TW: 14,874

 

 

Fandango Eye Count

 

AM&TW:  135 avg (5:15pm)

 

JW:HK:  120 (3:45pm), 156.7 (5:30pm)

Solo:  134 (5:45pm)

Deadpool 2: 165.5 (3:20pm), 204 (5:20pm)

AIW: 305 (3pm)

JL: 124 (4:15pm), 145 (5:30pm), 156 (7:45)

Thor:R: 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)

SM:HC:  174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)

 

Not taking into  account earlier pre-sales or that tickets may be for FSS - ratio of Thur sales to Thur previews using just 5.20-5:30 comps

 

JW:HK  -  $13.18m

Solo: $14.1m (really heavy pre Thur pre-sales)

DP2:  $12.3m

JL: $12.10m

SM:HC:  $9.62m

 

 

Edited July 5, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Rebeccas]

AMATW filled up quickly for tonight. Only front row open now. Almost empty this morning when I checked in with movie pass...

[poweranimals]

Things are looking up on MT:

 

#1. Ant-man: 28.4%

#2. Incredibles: 19.5%

#3. Jurassic World: 18.9%

#4. Purge: 12.1%

#5. Sicario: 3.7%

[Cooper Legion]

Nearing 10 points behind I2+FK (actually is exactly 10.0 behind atm lol), think it will get there in maybe 2 more hours.     

 

If it can snag a 12.5 preview or so than 100 will still be in play. Holiday+First Purge is make compe hard, but I think it should be 10-13 or so.

Edited July 5, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Ant Man & The Wasp Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [12:30pm - 1pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	112	7361	10896	32.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:     897

 

.2877x as many tickets sold as Infinity War mid day of premiere.

.5072x as many tickets sold as Black Panther mid day of premiere.

.5962x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 mid day of the premiere. 

.6666x as many tickets sold as Solo mid day of premiere. 

.7137x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 mid day of premiere. 

.2877x  (39m) as many tickets sold as Infinity War =  $11.22m

.5072x  (25.2m) as many tickets sold as Black Panther = $12.78m

.5962x  (18.6m) as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  = $11m

.6666x  (14.1m) as many tickets sold as Solo = $9.36m

.7137x  (15.3m) as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2= $10.9m

 

So far from these numbers -  it's looking like a $11-12m range.

 

(Tossing out Solo since it had heavier than usual early pre-sales and didn't gain accordingly on Thur. BP also exploded during the night)

Edited July 5, 2018 by TalismanRing

[WrathOfHan]

First show of Ant-Man: 85/113

[Andreas]

Should we expect a I2 > JW2 Thursday? (MT Trending)

[Andreas]

MT Update:

 

AMATW: 31.2%

I2: 19.2%

JWFK: 18.3%

First Purge: 11.5%

Sicario: 3.3%

[HouseOfTheSun]

Ant Man looks maybe 7-10% below Thor 3 around my area but but it’s a college city and everyone’s one break so that likely is the reason. I think this has a better shot of hitting 110m than 80m