The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Deep Wang]

10 hours ago, LeoC said:

 

 

01/24    2.5m

02/04   2.9m (+410k in 12 days)

02/12    3.4m (+500k in 8 days)

 

Should be able to do at least 4.4m by the end of Feb, right? 

That seems pretty reasonable to me.

[SchumacherFTW]

12 hours ago, filmlover said:

Happy Death Day 2U is opening nowhere within 30 miles of me (I live within that Parkland radius where it was pulled).

They said when they moved to the 13th that they were going to delay the release in that area

[John Marston]

So if this list is updated now then Haply Death Day And Alita are not on movie tickets 

 

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt

 

 

Looks a bit better I guess on Fandango 

 

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

[el sid]

Which doesn't surprise me when it comes to HDD2U but Alita should appear soon. It sold more than twice as much tickets on fandango as The Upside in the last 24h.

Pulse today 8:50-9:04 EST:

Isn't It Romantic: 84/15 minutes - improved a lot compared to yesterday at that time where it had 25/15
Happy Death Day 2U: 32/15 - yesterday 17/15, The Prodigy had 27/15 on its release day at the same time of the day, Escape Room 54/15, The Possession of Hannah Grace 27/15

Alita: 70/15 minutes - yesterday 39/15, Mortal Engines had on Thursday at that time 17/15

And Pulse today 10:50-11:04 EST:
 

Isn't It Romantic: 167/15 minutes - yesterday 63/15, good jump

Happy Death Day 2U: 64/15 - finally better, yesterday 17/15, Escape Room had ca. at the same time on its release day 103/15 but of course as a Friday release
Alita: 123/15 minutes - yesterday it were 86/15, Mortal Engines had 33/15 at that time on Thursday=one day before the release; it didn't have quite the jump I hoped for but with two new movies released today it still looks (very) good.

Edited February 13, 2019 by el sid

[MrGlass2]

Alita on MT.

2019-02-13 22:00:30.299782 UTC
1	13.7%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
2	13.7%	What Men Want
3	11.1%	Isn't It Romantic
4	7.8%	Cold Pursuit
5	5.9%	Alita: Battle Angel

[YM!]

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Alita Battle Angel

 

7:00 - 6/301 - UltraScreen 3D

7:30 - 13/146

10:00 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 3D

10:35 - 2/146

 

I’m going to bed as I have classes early but I imagine that 10:35 will stay flat, all and all ouch for previews.

Edited February 14, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Rorschach]

Rave Cinemas Showings (CST)

 

Alita: Battle Angel

IMAX 3D:

7:00 - 29/387

10:00 - 0/387
 

3D:

10:45 (D-BOX showing) - 0/135

 

2D:

7:45 (D-BOX showing) - 29/135

8:30 - 0/85

9:25 - 0/141

Edited February 14, 2019 by Rorschach

[YM!]

3 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Alita Battle Angel

 

7:00 - 6/301 - UltraScreen 3D

7:30 - 13/146

10:00 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 3D

10:35 - 2/146

 

I’m going to bed as I have classes early but I imagine that 10:35 will stay flat, all and all ouch for previews.

 

[MrGlass2]

MT

1	18.4%	Isn't It Romantic
2	12.9%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
3	9.5%	Alita: Battle Angel
4	8.9%	What Men Want
5	6.9%	Happy Death Day 2U

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-13 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	20.491%	12587	Isnt It Romantic
2	18.790%	11542	Alita Battle Angel
3	09.248%	5681	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
4	08.942%	5493	Happy Death Day 2U
5	08.931%	5486	What Men Want

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7345	10616	30.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              38

 

.47625x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 22 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-22 Comp:

 

IW:        62 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4256/11125 seats left  | 61.74% sold] 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	81	7345	10616	30.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              38

 

.47625x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 22 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day T-22 Comp:

 

IW:        62 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4256/11125 seats left  | 61.74% sold] 

 

Gonna start rolling out other comps starting tomorrow. DP2 will be joining the comps at "T-21", as will FB2. 

 

JW2 will jump in at T-20, its third day of sales, and Solo will be right behind at either T-19 or T-18 (second and third day of sales, respectively). 

 

Finally, I'll bring BP back in at T-18.  I'd bring in BP sooner, but I only have partial data for those first few days, so might as well wait until it settles down before re-introducing it.

 

A note about JW2 and Solo.  As I mentioned, they will be at a VERY early stage of pre-sales.  That means they'll be selling a lot of tickets each day, yet CM will still have a massive head start on them ticket sale wise (36 days more, give or take).  So keep that in mind when looking at the comps.

Edited February 14, 2019 by Porthos

[TalismanRing]

Fandango Pulse Archive under spoiler cut

Spoiler

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching (1k expansion)	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,980	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web	286	691	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	605	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Creed II (Wed)	7,005	12,131	15,354	15,559
Ralph 2 (Wed)	6,712	12,083	19,183	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (1k exp)	387	922	89	2,268
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	3,475
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	6,235
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304	11,857
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063	25,201
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157	6,056
Second Act	353	611	1,146	1,915
Welcome To Marwen	299	403	658	928
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
A Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,560	3,257
On the Basis of Sex (2k expand)	537	1,043	2,275	3,511
The Upside	394	1,431	3,769	6,602
Replicas	21	133	352	1,002
Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478
The Kid Who Would be King	107	318	980
Serenity	6	128	1,074
Miss Bala	350	420	1,041
Lego Movie 2	2,552	4,130	8,601	13,321
What Men Want	1,383	2,505	5,405	9,328
Cold Pursuit	181	827	2,155	4,862
The Prodigy	161	359	847	2,288
Alita (Thur)	4,259	6,072	11,483
Isn't It Romantic (Wed)	3,576	5.367	12,411
Happy Death Day 2U (Wed)	1,296	1,843	5,445

 

 

 

 

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed
Alita (Thur)	4,259	6,072	11,483
Isn't It Romantic (Wed)	3,576	5.367	12,411
Happy Death Day 2U (Wed)	1,296	1,843	5,445

 

CRA is the only real comp for Isn't It Romantic and even that's not optimal since it was summer and it had previews the previous week

 

But 12,411/20,173 = 62%

[Eric Prime]

Sorry for not being active with the Pulse updates btw

 

This week's been pretty busy for me, so I wasn't able to get things here done as much as I would like.

[eridani]

I am learning about BO tracking and all these pulse updates are new to me. What do they exactly mean? Are they numbers of tickets sold through Fandango service?

 

And just how does one make comparison with previous movies? Lets take Alita for example. It says 11,483 for Wednesday.

A quiet place had 10,600 for Wednesday. And it opened to 50 million.

Oceans 8 had 11,000. it opened to 41 million.

Aquaman had 15,000. It opened to 68 million

Bumblebee had 3,000. It opened to 21 million.

Fantastic Beasts had 22,000. Opened to 62 million.

Meg had 6700, opened to 45 million.

 

So there are ratios of those pulse (Sale?) values to actual opening varying from 1:3 to 1:7.  How helpful is that then? What else do i need to take into consideration in order to learn to read those Pulse update values?

 

Would Alita's 11,483 result then mean it should open to anywhere from 33 to 77 million? That doesn't seem remotely right, as most tracking predictions seem to put it in the 15-30 million range 3 day opening.

 

Can anyone help me read those?

[Premium George]

6 minutes ago, eridani said:

I am learning about BO tracking and all these pulse updates are new to me. What do they exactly mean? Are they numbers of tickets sold through Fandango service?

 

And just how does one make comparison with previous movies? Lets take Alita for example. It says 11,483 for Wednesday.

A quiet place had 10,600 for Wednesday. And it opened to 50 million.

Oceans 8 had 11,000. it opened to 41 million.

Aquaman had 15,000. It opened to 68 million

Bumblebee had 3,000. It opened to 21 million.

Fantastic Beasts had 22,000. Opened to 62 million.

Meg had 6700, opened to 45 million.

 

So there are ratios of those pulse (Sale?) values to actual opening varying from 1:3 to 1:7.  How helpful is that then? What else do i need to take into consideration in order to learn to read those Pulse update values?

 

Would Alita's 11,483 result then mean it should open to anywhere from 33 to 77 million? That doesn't seem remotely right, as most tracking predictions seem to put it in the 15-30 million range 3 day opening.

 

Can anyone help me read those?

I think AQP, O8, FB and meg opened on friday. While AQ and BB opened in December where pre sales are more spread out. Maybe their 3 days can be compared with alita's 4 day.

[nevermore]

'Captain Marvel' Tracking for Marvelous $100M-Plus Debut

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-tracking-marvelous-100m-debut-1186612

[Brainbug]

17 minutes ago, nevermore said:

'Captain Marvel' Tracking for Marvelous $100M-Plus Debut

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-tracking-marvelous-100m-debut-1186612

 

[TwoMisfits]

28 minutes ago, nevermore said:

'Captain Marvel' Tracking for Marvelous $100M-Plus Debut

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-tracking-marvelous-100m-debut-1186612

Odd headline, since I thought we saw $130M+ and even a $160M just last week or so...maybe I'm imagining that...

 

Could be keeping expectations in check...

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Odd headline, since I thought we saw $130M+ and even a $160M just last week or so...maybe I'm imagining that...

 

Could be keeping expectations in check...

Well, $ 100M is the exactly same tracking BP have 3 weeks before the release

They're just being conservative

Edited February 14, 2019 by ThomasNicole

[FlashMaster659]

‘Captain Marvel’ Opening Weekend: Around $100M – Early Projection

 

https://deadline.com/2019/02/captain-marvel-box-office-opening-weekend-projections-1202557433/