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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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EconomySize Straight-to-DVD

EconomySize

Posted
Posted (edited)

Cumulative PreSales (COB Wednesday):

Cumulative Sales Dumbo Wrinkle Pooh Grinch Nutcracker
Total Tickets 23367 26306 12668 25867 9171
Ratio   0.89 1.84 0.90 2.55
OW   33.12 24.56 67.57 21.00
Proj OW   29.42 45.30 61.04 53.51

 

Thursday (Today!) Preview Gross Projections:

Cumulative Sales Dumbo Pooh Grinch Nutcracker
Thurs. Tickets 4195 2914 3538 1009
Ratio   1.44 1.19 4.16
PG   1.5 2.2 0.65
Proj PG   2.16 2.61 2.70

 

Running a little below yesterday, but that's partly me cheating - I pulled tthe data at different times.  This is the more accurate time to comp.  2.5 in presales models to 42ish, I'd probably cheat a little high side being a kids movie, but wide range I'd go 40-60. Narrowing it down a little  I'd guess it's gonna end up between the Christopher Robin comp and the Nutcracker comp.

Edited by EconomySize
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Matthew said:

 Why is the sheet that contains presales numbers not updated? Is their something wrong. The figures are freezed at Tuesday

If you look at the now numbers, you can estimate that yesterday was probably about 10K tickets sold Wed for Dumbo...since Dumbo is currently running slightly above that for the last 24 hours now...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Eric Burnett Global Phenomenon

Eric Burnett

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Matthew said:

 Why is the sheet that contains presales numbers not updated? Is their something wrong. The figures are freezed at Tuesday

If you're talking about my sheet, I've been very busy this week, so I don't really have the time to update this as much as I would like.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

Pulse 8:50-9:04 EST:
 

Dumbo: 167/15 – yesterday it were 123/15, up 36%; The Nutcracker had 72/15 minutes, The Grinch 184/15, Lego2 110/15, HtTYD3 227/15, Wonder Park 44/15, all same day and time of the day
Unplanned: 24/15 – yesterday 10/15
Hotel Mumbai: 7/15
The Beach Bum: 3/15 – yesterday 2/15
 

And Pulse 10:35-10:49 EST:
 

Dumbo: 223/15 – yesterday 158/15; up 41%; The Nutcracker had 82/15 minutes, The Grinch 315/15, Lego2 160/15, HtTYD3 325/15, Wonder Park 59/15, all same day and time of the day
Unplanned: 35/15 – yesterday 30/15
Hotel Mumbai: 20/15 – yesterday 12/15
The Beach Bum: 9/15 – yesterday 2/15

→ same here unfortunately, Dumbo slowed a bit down. Now I'm pretty clueless about Dumbo's range: Both times today it was still comfortable in front of e.g. Lego 2 but destinctly behind HtTYD 3. Compared to The Grinch it would get ca. 48M, compared to The Nutcracker it would be ca. 55M OW and compared to Wonder Park even ca. 60M.
What EconomySize already said, all between 40-60M could happen.
 

Also not easy to find comparisons for the three other smaller movies, they all seem to be sort of special. The Beach Bum showed first signs of life and Unplanned had bad luck with the second counting because it was doing (far) better when I looked at Pulse a bit before and also later.
Miss Bala, rather an entertaining than dark film had 25/15 at that time (second counting) and 6.9M OW; Cold Pursuit, Greta and Serenity  - all with R-Rating - had at the same time 47/15 and 11M OW (CP), 16/15 and 4.5M (Greta), 31/15 and 4.4M (Serenity).                               

Edited by el sid
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

For my locals, Dumbo better be a very big walk up movie if it wants a decent "Disney-esque family movie" preview number...

 

Right now, it's sold 40/525 2d seats, and 2/175 3d seats tonight - that's not good for Disney.

 

My Regal is a little better with 66/270 2d seats sold, and 8/90 3d seats sold for tonight.

 

We are not on Spring Break, but these figures are pretty middling for a normal family movie...especially once which got double screened at both theaters...

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

If you're talking about my sheet, I've been very busy this week, so I don't really have the time to update this as much as I would like.

If you ever need any help, just ask!  That’s a lot of work for just one person! 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited) 
Mt.com (last four hours)
2019-03-29 00:00:23.618200 UTC
1	31%	Dumbo
2	26.1%	Us
3	12.3%	Captain Marvel
4	5.9%	Unplanned
5	3%	Five Feet Apart

2019-03-28 23:00:20.101059 UTC
1	29.5%	Dumbo
2	27.1%	Us
3	12.6%	Captain Marvel
4	5.8%	Unplanned
5	3.1%	Five Feet Apart

2019-03-28 22:00:25.695695 UTC
1	27.9%	Dumbo
2	27.5%	Us
3	13.7%	Captain Marvel
4	5.5%	Unplanned
5	3.1%	Five Feet Apart

2019-03-28 21:00:24.041319 UTC
1	28.2%	Us
2	26.9%	Dumbo
3	13.9%	Captain Marvel
4	5.4%	Unplanned
5	3.1%	Five Feet Apart

 

============= 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-03-27 19:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	34.368%	20426	Us (2019)
2	20.093%	11942	Dumbo (2019)
3	14.224%	8454	Captain Marvel (2019)
4	03.676%	2185	Dumbo
5	03.404%	2023	Unplanned (2019)
6	03.151%	1873	Five Feet Apart
7	02.465%	1465	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
8	02.457%	1460	Wonder Park
9	01.959%	1164	Shazam!
10	01.661%	987	Hotel Mumbai

==========

Fandango (last three hours - latest hour still partial) 

2019-03-28 18:00:00	934	Us (2019)
2019-03-28 18:00:00	607	Dumbo (2019)
2019-03-28 18:00:00	383	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-03-28 18:00:00	94	Five Feet Apart
2019-03-28 18:00:00	72	Unplanned (2019)
2019-03-28 18:00:00	67	Dumbo 3D
2019-03-28 18:00:00	62	Hotel Mumbai

---- 

2019-03-28 17:00:00	997	Us (2019)
2019-03-28 17:00:00	632	Dumbo (2019)
2019-03-28 17:00:00	408	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-03-28 17:00:00	138	Unplanned (2019)
2019-03-28 17:00:00	109	Five Feet Apart
2019-03-28 17:00:00	78	Dumbo 3D
2019-03-28 17:00:00	73	Hotel Mumbai

---- 

2019-03-28 16:00:00	937	Us (2019)
2019-03-28 16:00:00	720	Dumbo (2019)
2019-03-28 16:00:00	409	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-03-28 16:00:00	102	Five Feet Apart
2019-03-28 16:00:00	90	Unplanned (2019)
2019-03-28 16:00:00	85	Dumbo 3D
2019-03-28 16:00:00	70	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2019-03-28 16:00:00	65	Hotel Mumbai

===========

 

Am I just way off, or is this light for Dumbo?

 

Edited by Porthos
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Porthos said: 

Mt.com (last four hours)
2019-03-29 00:00:23.618200 UTC
1	31%	Dumbo
2	26.1%	Us
3	12.3%	Captain Marvel
4	5.9%	Unplanned
5	3%	Five Feet Apart

2019-03-28 23:00:20.101059 UTC
1	29.5%	Dumbo
2	27.1%	Us
3	12.6%	Captain Marvel
4	5.8%	Unplanned
5	3.1%	Five Feet Apart

2019-03-28 22:00:25.695695 UTC
1	27.9%	Dumbo
2	27.5%	Us
3	13.7%	Captain Marvel
4	5.5%	Unplanned
5	3.1%	Five Feet Apart

2019-03-28 21:00:24.041319 UTC
1	28.2%	Us
2	26.9%	Dumbo
3	13.9%	Captain Marvel
4	5.4%	Unplanned
5	3.1%	Five Feet Apart

 

============= 


Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-03-27 19:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	34.368%	20426	Us (2019)
2	20.093%	11942	Dumbo (2019)
3	14.224%	8454	Captain Marvel (2019)
4	03.676%	2185	Dumbo
5	03.404%	2023	Unplanned (2019)
6	03.151%	1873	Five Feet Apart
7	02.465%	1465	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
8	02.457%	1460	Wonder Park
9	01.959%	1164	Shazam!
10	01.661%	987	Hotel Mumbai

==========

Fandango (last three hours - latest hour still partial) 


2019-03-28 18:00:00	934	Us (2019)
2019-03-28 18:00:00	607	Dumbo (2019)
2019-03-28 18:00:00	383	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-03-28 18:00:00	94	Five Feet Apart
2019-03-28 18:00:00	72	Unplanned (2019)
2019-03-28 18:00:00	67	Dumbo 3D
2019-03-28 18:00:00	62	Hotel Mumbai

---- 


2019-03-28 17:00:00	997	Us (2019)
2019-03-28 17:00:00	632	Dumbo (2019)
2019-03-28 17:00:00	408	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-03-28 17:00:00	138	Unplanned (2019)
2019-03-28 17:00:00	109	Five Feet Apart
2019-03-28 17:00:00	78	Dumbo 3D
2019-03-28 17:00:00	73	Hotel Mumbai

---- 


2019-03-28 16:00:00	937	Us (2019)
2019-03-28 16:00:00	720	Dumbo (2019)
2019-03-28 16:00:00	409	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-03-28 16:00:00	102	Five Feet Apart
2019-03-28 16:00:00	90	Unplanned (2019)
2019-03-28 16:00:00	85	Dumbo 3D
2019-03-28 16:00:00	70	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2019-03-28 16:00:00	65	Hotel Mumbai

===========

 

Am I just way off, or is this light for Dumbo?

 

For a Disney live action, it's light.  For a non-Disney family movie, it's not.  For this movie to break out, it probably needs to play like a normal family movie this weekend...not sure how likely that is.  We could be looking at a case of the early week Monday tracking being wildly off to the upside, which hasn't happened in awhile...but it's still early...

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted (edited)

Dumbo has actually been selling pretty well around here aside from the shows past 9:00 and it's selling much better for tomorrow. I'll be surprised if the previews come below $2.5M or around there.

Edited by filmlover
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Dumbo has actually been selling pretty well around here aside from the shows past 9:00 and it's selling much better for tomorrow. I'll be surprised if the previews come below $2.5M or around there.

Cinderella got $2.3M 4 years ago, so you'd have to think that would be the "low" number we'd be looking at...

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted (edited)
Release Date Movie Thur B.O. ($M) O.D. ($M) O.W. ($M) O.D. Multi O.W. Multi
             
8/3/2018 Christopher Robin 1.5 9.5 24.6 6.3 16.4
11/2/2018 Nutcracker  0.63 5.9 20.4 9.4 32.6
3/9/2018 Wrinkle in Time 1.3 10.2 33.1 7.9 25.5
1/12/2018 Paddington 2 0.33 2.4 15 7.5 46.2
3/13/2015 Cinderella 2.3 23 67.9 10 29.5

9/21/2018              House W/Clocks      0.84                      7.8                  26.6             9.3                31.7

2018-09-28            Smallfoot                 0.85                      6.4                  23.0             7.6                27.1

2018-11-09            The Grinch               2.20                     18.6                  67.6             8.5                30.7

 

CR and Paddington 2 are the outlier multis.  CR during summer and P2  over a 4 day holiday w/e. 

 

P2 preview to 3 day w/e with a holiday softened -14% Sunday drop is  33.3 (.33/11) so also w/in range of the other non summer multis.

 

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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AJG Global Phenomenon

AJG

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, cdsacken said:

I mean I don't feel like they did a lot of work to please them let's put it that way. People can complain they were too harsh (I've been too harsh imo) but there were so many flaws in that film yet it overachieved to an unbelievable degree.

 

Are there any crazier success stories than Venom that did 850+ million plus despite being reviled by critics?

Transformers? Twilight?

 

A bad movie making money isn’t that interesting.

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

Dumbo did pretty well here. I only got to track its IMAX performance though but it out-performed even Bohemian Rhapsody.

 

Total evening = 155 tickets

26.4% Captain Marvel (5.46M previews)

118% Glass (4.36M previews)

39.4% Aquaman (3.55M previews)

44.9% Beasts (4.08M previews)

155% Bohemian Rhapsody (6.045M previews)

 

Now I'm not going to go around thinking this will end up with 5M+ for previews, but 3 seems like a pretty decent bet based on these numbers. Guess I'll just have to wait until morning, but overall it was a strong showing here. 

 

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday   B.O.
A Wrinkle In Time   4,864   15,601   $33.123m
House With Clocks 897 1469 3607 8,074   $26.6m
Small Foot 734 1,261 2,448     $23.05m
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms 1,659 1,949 2,567 5,518   $21m
Grinch 3,580 4,860 10,092 17,046   $67.5m
Wonder Park 607 988 1,749     $15.85m
Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509   $24.56m
Dumbo 3,069 4,624 9,193 16,102    

 

 

Unplanned   754 1,397 2,071
The Beach Bum   99 232 592
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Neucentro Indie Sensation

Neucentro

Posted
Posted

On previews night, sales for Dumbo is about 2.9 times that for  The Nutcracker on Fandango.

 

17:00 - 21:00 Tue/Wed/Thu

Dumbo - 1374/2932 (+113%)/5029 (+72%)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 624/700 (+12%)/1756 (+151%)

 

8 days out, Shazam is about 44% of Aquaman at the same point.  And sales for Pet Sematary is 19% of that for Us at the same point. 

 

17:00 - 21:00 Tue/Wed/Thu

Shazam - 245/338 (+38%)/318 (-6%)

Aquaman - 562/847 (+50%)/728 (-14%)

 

Pet Sematary - 77/118 (+53%)/76 (-36%)

Us - 324/433 (+34%)/ 399 (-8%)

 

 

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BK007 Box Office Gold

BK007

Posted
Posted

The most "original" looking remake gets the worst reviews and the least BO? 

 

Typical Americans. 

 

I'm probably not watching it but it definitely deserves more than shite like Cinderella, Beauty and the Beast and the Lion King.

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